ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[StJoe]

Damn, another t warning... thats #9 for the morning/night...haven't gone too sleep, wanted to be an all-nighter

[KWT]

Yep motion does seem to be taing it to the east of the NHC track once again it seems, probably NE still being the motion now though it does seem to be close to ENE as well...

[StJoe]

WOW Fay really amped up in Wellington now. serious gusts here now, RUMBLING thunder and lightning, worse then a couple of hours ago.

[NDG]

Good news and bad news for the Orlando area.

Good news for Orlando-Daytona area: Fay will be coming in from on an axis tilted in to the east of Orlando, thus avoiding most of the worst quadrant.

Bad News for Orlando-Daytona area: Fay will get to the Atlantic a little faster and farther east, thus parking herself just offshore of Volusia and or Brevard Counties where she could regain strength while sitting just offshore with almost perfect upper level conditions setting in, with eventually retrograding westward by the end of the week into the weekend hitting the Orlando-Daytona area even worst.

[Thunder44]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169358:3194_21178594:3194_21206144:3194_21206152&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

Faye is heading ene in my eyeballs...maybe its just me, but I think she's gonna be just west of Lake Okeechobee, or dead center. Amazing if she slingshots over it...

It still looks NNE movement overall to me. The thunderstorms rotating around the center make it look like it's moving in different directions sometimes.

[StJoe]

Good news and bad news for the Orlando area.

Good news for Orlando-Daytona area: Fay will be coming in from on an axis tilted in to the east of Orlando, thus avoiding most of the worst quadrant.

Bad News for Orlando-Daytona area: Fay will get to the Atlantic a little faster and farther east, thus parking herself just offshore of Volusia and or Brevard Counties where she could regain strength while sitting just offshore with almost perfect upper level conditions setting in, with eventually retrograding westward by the end of the week into the weekend hitting the Orlando-Daytona area even worst.

Hey man, at least you guys got Mickey...We got a freaking wet Topo Gigo down here dancing in the flooded streets

[heartland15]

Can someone post the models please I am having a hard time finding them.

[Meso]

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102419&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2600

^ Models

[Emmett_Brown]

Great Scott!! Here in St Augustine/Jax, we are taking note this morning... Not often do we get landfalling systems in NE FL from the Atlantic. Dora in '64 cat 2 that hit St Augustine and did quite a bit of damage.

Some big questions obviously:

1. Fay has a decent inner core for the first time in its existance. FL is flat and swampy... will she be able to hold together for the trip onto the ATL? Irene held together very well over SFL in 1999, and maintained hurricane intensity, then wrapped up nicely on the other side of FL.

2. As Fay approaches the other side of the state, will we see a "jump" back into the water... by that i mean i have noticed that some storms start to fire as they approach the ocean, and the LLC is sometimes pulled that way a bit quicker. Just something to look for.

3. How long will she stay in the ATL before turning back... GFS has it staying out there over 24 hours before heading back.

[NDG]

Does any one believe it could track more east-northeastward across Florida? I think it might.

I think so too...GFDL looks** like it may have the best track across florida...I just can't see t his taking 48 hours to clear florida...

I don't know if I would be paying too much attention to the GFDL, is already clearly east of the current track and well east of the concensus of the models which keep Fay in the central to northern FL area through at least the next 96 hrs, it just does not make any sense that the GFDL is running Fay right into a developing ridge of high pressure in the Ohio Valley into the US east coast.



Yesterday the NHC threw out the GFS & Euro's solution because they noticed that its ensembles did not agreed with the operationals' runs.

So what would be their excuse now, I know they really trust the GFDL, but I would say that it is an outliar at this point, the same thing happened with Bertha, the global models predicted Bertha to stall out close to Bermuda while the GFDL raced her off through the period.

[Emmett_Brown]

Who else in FL, SE ALT and GOM is going to have serious trouble paying attention to their work today...

I have several lab experiments that I have completely lost track of tracking Fay. I think I need a multivitamin.

This is why I love storms... so fantastic and unpredictable...

Fay appears to be heading across FL at a good pace on radar... Lake O visit today?

[Emmett_Brown]

48 Hour 500 mb GFS shows Fay parked off the EFL coast with steering currents very weak:

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi says GFDL is closest to his thinking. He didn't say Fay approaching Cat 3 and approaching Charleston, however.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I have no idea about how many actually made it to the ground, but my weather alert radio woke me up constantly with tornado warnings last night.

I counted 12 warnings from 6pm until 1:30a, and the three when I got up at 6-7a makes 15 so far.

[cpdaman]

the upper level low over NE texas appears to be sliding ESE and possibly giving fay a bit more nudge NE (opposed to NNE) as well as the short wave trough axis over NE gulf/se states maybe eroding some ridging off e central florida (note i really am not sure i know what i'm talking about lol) giving fay a NE path across the state , just south of cape canaveral (i.e melbourne beach) not sure she makes it across the state however as the trough axis should kick NE of E C fl by afternoon, when fay is over NW lake O, interesting day. maybe she retains her energy spinning over the NW portion of the lake this evening. also would like more info on the trends of the atlantic ridging and periphery of the high, otherwise the NNE trend may be more accurate

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope NHC forecast is correct, it would do wonders for the Southern drought.

[fasterdisaster]

Anyone else think she looks BETTER than she did when she made landfall???

[StJoe]

Anyone else think she looks BETTER than she did when she made landfall???

Fay actually looks like a cat 1-2 at landfall right now; quite the nasty tropical storm she is. As far as getting better, not to me. She needs more outflow...she looks like she's losing her punch, but she is over the Everglades now.

[fasterdisaster]

Anyone else think she looks BETTER than she did when she made landfall???

Fay actually looks like a cat 1-2 at landfall right now; quite the nasty tropical storm she is. As far as getting better, not to me. She needs more outflow...she looks like she's losing her punch, but she is over the Everglades now.

Well the eye is completely closed, and she has much more storm activity on her south side. I'm looking at radar though.

[jhpigott]

Anyone else think she looks BETTER than she did when she made landfall???

Fay actually looks like a cat 1-2 at landfall right now; quite the nasty tropical storm she is. As far as getting better, not to me. She needs more outflow...she looks like she's losing her punch, but she is over the Everglades now.

What do you think StJoe - North, South or through Lake O?? I'm here in North Palm Beach - i think if she goes through or south of the lake we could see some strong TS conditions as opposed to 25-35kt currently predicted