ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
StJoe
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 274
Age: 55
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 11:55 am
Location: Wellington

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9641 Postby StJoe » Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:14 am

Damn, another t warning... thats #9 for the morning/night...haven't gone too sleep, wanted to be an all-nighter
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#9642 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:16 am

Yep motion does seem to be taing it to the east of the NHC track once again it seems, probably NE still being the motion now though it does seem to be close to ENE as well...
0 likes   

User avatar
StJoe
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 274
Age: 55
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 11:55 am
Location: Wellington

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9643 Postby StJoe » Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:23 am

WOW :eek: Fay really amped up in Wellington now. serious gusts here now, RUMBLING thunder and lightning, worse then a couple of hours ago.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15469
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#9644 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:28 am

Good news and bad news for the Orlando area.

Good news for Orlando-Daytona area: Fay will be coming in from on an axis tilted in to the east of Orlando, thus avoiding most of the worst quadrant.

Bad News for Orlando-Daytona area: Fay will get to the Atlantic a little faster and farther east, thus parking herself just offshore of Volusia and or Brevard Counties where she could regain strength while sitting just offshore with almost perfect upper level conditions setting in, with eventually retrograding westward by the end of the week into the weekend hitting the Orlando-Daytona area even worst.
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9645 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:29 am

StJoe wrote:http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169358:3194_21178594:3194_21206144:3194_21206152&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

Faye is heading ene in my eyeballs...maybe its just me, but I think she's gonna be just west of Lake Okeechobee, or dead center. Amazing if she slingshots over it...


It still looks NNE movement overall to me. The thunderstorms rotating around the center make it look like it's moving in different directions sometimes.
0 likes   

User avatar
StJoe
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 274
Age: 55
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 11:55 am
Location: Wellington

Re:

#9646 Postby StJoe » Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:32 am

NDG wrote:Good news and bad news for the Orlando area.

Good news for Orlando-Daytona area: Fay will be coming in from on an axis tilted in to the east of Orlando, thus avoiding most of the worst quadrant.

Bad News for Orlando-Daytona area: Fay will get to the Atlantic a little faster and farther east, thus parking herself just offshore of Volusia and or Brevard Counties where she could regain strength while sitting just offshore with almost perfect upper level conditions setting in, with eventually retrograding westward by the end of the week into the weekend hitting the Orlando-Daytona area even worst.


Hey man, at least you guys got Mickey...We got a freaking wet Topo Gigo down here dancing in the flooded streets :cheesy:
0 likes   

heartland15
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 5
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2008 7:48 am
Location: Lake City, Fl. now originally Homestead

#9647 Postby heartland15 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:43 am

Can someone post the models please I am having a hard time finding them.
0 likes   

User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:

#9648 Postby Meso » Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:44 am

0 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1433
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

#9649 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:48 am

Great Scott!! Here in St Augustine/Jax, we are taking note this morning... Not often do we get landfalling systems in NE FL from the Atlantic. Dora in '64 cat 2 that hit St Augustine and did quite a bit of damage.

Some big questions obviously:

1. Fay has a decent inner core for the first time in its existance. FL is flat and swampy... will she be able to hold together for the trip onto the ATL? Irene held together very well over SFL in 1999, and maintained hurricane intensity, then wrapped up nicely on the other side of FL.

2. As Fay approaches the other side of the state, will we see a "jump" back into the water... by that i mean i have noticed that some storms start to fire as they approach the ocean, and the LLC is sometimes pulled that way a bit quicker. Just something to look for.

3. How long will she stay in the ATL before turning back... GFS has it staying out there over 24 hours before heading back.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15469
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9650 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:55 am

deltadog03 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Does any one believe it could track more east-northeastward across Florida? I think it might.


I think so too...GFDL looks** like it may have the best track across florida...I just can't see t his taking 48 hours to clear florida...


I don't know if I would be paying too much attention to the GFDL, is already clearly east of the current track and well east of the concensus of the models which keep Fay in the central to northern FL area through at least the next 96 hrs, it just does not make any sense that the GFDL is running Fay right into a developing ridge of high pressure in the Ohio Valley into the US east coast.

Image

Yesterday the NHC threw out the GFS & Euro's solution because they noticed that its ensembles did not agreed with the operationals' runs.

So what would be their excuse now, I know they really trust the GFDL, but I would say that it is an outliar at this point, the same thing happened with Bertha, the global models predicted Bertha to stall out close to Bermuda while the GFDL raced her off through the period.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1433
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

#9651 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:56 am

Who else in FL, SE ALT and GOM is going to have serious trouble paying attention to their work today...

I have several lab experiments that I have completely lost track of tracking Fay. I think I need a multivitamin.

This is why I love storms... so fantastic and unpredictable...

Fay appears to be heading across FL at a good pace on radar... Lake O visit today?
0 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1433
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9652 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:01 am

48 Hour 500 mb GFS shows Fay parked off the EFL coast with steering currents very weak:

Image
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9653 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:01 am

Joe Bastardi says GFDL is closest to his thinking. He didn't say Fay approaching Cat 3 and approaching Charleston, however.
0 likes   

dolebot_Broward_NW
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 529
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:38 am

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9654 Postby dolebot_Broward_NW » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:03 am

I have no idea about how many actually made it to the ground, but my weather alert radio woke me up constantly with tornado warnings last night.


I counted 12 warnings from 6pm until 1:30a, and the three when I got up at 6-7a makes 15 so far.
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

#9655 Postby cpdaman » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:10 am

the upper level low over NE texas appears to be sliding ESE and possibly giving fay a bit more nudge NE (opposed to NNE) as well as the short wave trough axis over NE gulf/se states maybe eroding some ridging off e central florida (note i really am not sure i know what i'm talking about lol) giving fay a NE path across the state , just south of cape canaveral (i.e melbourne beach) not sure she makes it across the state however as the trough axis should kick NE of E C fl by afternoon, when fay is over NW lake O, interesting day. maybe she retains her energy spinning over the NW portion of the lake this evening. also would like more info on the trends of the atlantic ridging and periphery of the high, otherwise the NNE trend may be more accurate
Last edited by cpdaman on Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9656 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:11 am

I hope NHC forecast is correct, it would do wonders for the Southern drought.
0 likes   

fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#9657 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:13 am

Anyone else think she looks BETTER than she did when she made landfall???
0 likes   

User avatar
StJoe
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 274
Age: 55
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 11:55 am
Location: Wellington

Re:

#9658 Postby StJoe » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:16 am

fasterdisaster wrote:Anyone else think she looks BETTER than she did when she made landfall???


Fay actually looks like a cat 1-2 at landfall right now; quite the nasty tropical storm she is. As far as getting better, not to me. She needs more outflow...she looks like she's losing her punch, but she is over the Everglades now.
0 likes   

fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

Re: Re:

#9659 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:18 am

StJoe wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:Anyone else think she looks BETTER than she did when she made landfall???


Fay actually looks like a cat 1-2 at landfall right now; quite the nasty tropical storm she is. As far as getting better, not to me. She needs more outflow...she looks like she's losing her punch, but she is over the Everglades now.


Well the eye is completely closed, and she has much more storm activity on her south side. I'm looking at radar though.
0 likes   

jhpigott
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 570
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:09 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

Re: Re:

#9660 Postby jhpigott » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:20 am

StJoe wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:Anyone else think she looks BETTER than she did when she made landfall???


Fay actually looks like a cat 1-2 at landfall right now; quite the nasty tropical storm she is. As far as getting better, not to me. She needs more outflow...she looks like she's losing her punch, but she is over the Everglades now.


What do you think StJoe - North, South or through Lake O?? I'm here in North Palm Beach - i think if she goes through or south of the lake we could see some strong TS conditions as opposed to 25-35kt currently predicted
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests