ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[DanKellFla]

On Radar, there was and "eye structure" just before Fay made landfall. Since then, it has become better defined.

If the eye goes over Lake O, can the storm strengthen?

[Just Joshing You]

Right on the NHC track. She is going to scrape the northern edge of Lake Okeechobee.

Which track? The one from this morning...yesterday...or the day before?

What was that supposed to mean That NHC did an 'exceptional' job with this forecast?

[Normandy]

On Radar, there was and "eye structure" just before Fay made landfall. Since then, it has become better defined.

If the eye goes over Lake O, can the storm strengthen?

Well if it can deepend over land, why not over a lake? At least the lake IS water

[rockyman]

11am coming in

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

[RL3AO]

[carversteve]

Right on the NHC track. She is going to scrape the northern edge of Lake Okeechobee.

Which track? The one from this morning...yesterday...or the day before?

I will take track 3 for $500 alex!!

[srainhoutx]

One point to remember concerning this vortex. Fay has always had a strong mid level circulation connected to it. We have witnessed this for over a week now. It would appear that this will not change anytime soon.

[chris_fit]

Nice radar loop....

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/r ... pl?Florida

[Chacor]

Hmm...
DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A
WELL DEFINED PATTERN...AND IN FACT...RADAR SHOWS A RING OF
CONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE. DOPPLER VELOCITIES
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 986 MB.

IF FAY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE ON
RADAR...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED.

[GeneratorPower]

If that is not an eye, then we need to rework the definition of "eye" to include this feature.

[MiamiensisWx]

Structure looks very good now:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

However, remember that the radar beam is tilted upward from the base...

[AdamFirst]

Tornadic damage reported in Downtown Stuart by the Martin County Sheriff's Office

Gas station roof was torn off

[Sanibel]

Obviously when whatever turned FAY more NE got on its NW side conditions became more favorable and the structure improved. The important thing is Fay proved the environment wasn't that good because it had opportunities to strengthen.

Interesting to see if it can get a good portion of that "eye" over the Gulf Stream.

[MiamiensisWx]

On Radar, there was and "eye structure" just before Fay made landfall. Since then, it has become better defined.

If the eye goes over Lake O, can the storm strengthen?

The answer is "no." The depth of the lake is extremely shallow, and heat content/tropical cyclone heat potential is virtually non-existant. The "strengthening over the lake" theory is a popular local legend.

[Meso]

GeneratorPower : This isn't a personal attack on him, but Frank2 downplays EVERYTHING, always... I am yet to see him say a system will develop, I've seen maybe 20 "not a chance" type comments, even on storms that have developed just shortly after that was said. Entirely too conservative. Just pointing this out so you know it's not just a today thing.

AS for the storm : http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Convection now on the decrease as the strong reds disappear around the center, but more blow ups on the NE side

[Air Force Met]

Right on the NHC track. She is going to scrape the northern edge of Lake Okeechobee.

Which track? The one from this morning...yesterday...or the day before?

What was that supposed to mean That NHC did an 'exceptional' job with this forecast?

The models did an exceptional job...by and large...with this track. Where the models were wrong a few days ago...bringing it due north into GA/NC...those track errors were reflected.

This was a relatively easy storm for the models. Not a lot of timing issues to start off with. The problems with the track and intensity will be faced when it moves off the coast again...especially given its current structure and the upper air pattern.

[HURAKAN]

WSCN, Channel 7, here in Miami was live until an hour ago. They had their two anchors, 9 reports, and 2 meterologists in rotation talking about the storm. Let me tell you. There is no tree that fell in Miami and the areas around that wasn't reported!

[Just Joshing You]

Compare the 11 am advisory with what I predicted:

11 AM Advisory

DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A
WELL DEFINED PATTERN...AND IN FACT...RADAR SHOWS A RING OF
CONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE. DOPPLER VELOCITIES
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 986 MB. FAY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.

Mine:

Visible imagery... as well as radar... indicate that FAY has handled exceptionally well while over land. An eye-like feature has become pronounced over the last few hours. Current intensity is held at 50 KT in the short term, with a continuing weakening trend forecasted.

[gatorcane]

From NHC discussion...interesting:

THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES FAY A
STRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE WATER JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. DO NOT
RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY YET

[MiamiensisWx]

Pressure has dropped (over land) two millibars since the preceding advisory...

Note the transition from 988 (8 a.m. EDT) to 986 mb (11 a.m. EDT).

Based on the eye appearing on visibles, this takes the cake and surpasses Erin 2007. Period.