ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
DanKellFla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1291
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 12:02 pm
Location: Lake Worth, Florida

#9841 Postby DanKellFla » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:42 am

On Radar, there was and "eye structure" just before Fay made landfall. Since then, it has become better defined.

If the eye goes over Lake O, can the storm strengthen?
0 likes   

User avatar
Just Joshing You
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 512
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:29 am
Location: Nova Scotia

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9842 Postby Just Joshing You » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:43 am

Air Force Met wrote:
carolina_73 wrote:Right on the NHC track. :wink: She is going to scrape the northern edge of Lake Okeechobee.


Which track? The one from this morning...yesterday...or the day before?

:lol:


What was that supposed to mean :P That NHC did an 'exceptional' job with this forecast?
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re:

#9843 Postby Normandy » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:43 am

DanKellFla wrote:On Radar, there was and "eye structure" just before Fay made landfall. Since then, it has become better defined.

If the eye goes over Lake O, can the storm strengthen?

Well if it can deepend over land, why not over a lake? At least the lake IS water
0 likes   

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#9844 Postby rockyman » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:44 am

0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#9845 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:44 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
carversteve
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 161
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:40 am

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9846 Postby carversteve » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:44 am

Air Force Met wrote:
carolina_73 wrote:Right on the NHC track. :wink: She is going to scrape the northern edge of Lake Okeechobee.


Which track? The one from this morning...yesterday...or the day before?

:lol:

I will take track 3 for $500 alex!!
0 likes   

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9847 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:45 am

One point to remember concerning this vortex. Fay has always had a strong mid level circulation connected to it. We have witnessed this for over a week now. It would appear that this will not change anytime soon.
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3251
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#9848 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:45 am

0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#9849 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:45 am

Hmm...
DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A
WELL DEFINED PATTERN...AND IN FACT...RADAR SHOWS A RING OF
CONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE. DOPPLER VELOCITIES
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 986 MB.

IF FAY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE ON
RADAR...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED.
Last edited by Chacor on Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

Re:

#9850 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:45 am

RL3AO wrote:Image


If that is not an eye, then we need to rework the definition of "eye" to include this feature.
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

#9851 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:46 am

Structure looks very good now:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

However, remember that the radar beam is tilted upward from the base...
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

#9852 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:46 am

Tornadic damage reported in Downtown Stuart by the Martin County Sheriff's Office

Gas station roof was torn off
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9853 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:46 am

Obviously when whatever turned FAY more NE got on its NW side conditions became more favorable and the structure improved. The important thing is Fay proved the environment wasn't that good because it had opportunities to strengthen.

Interesting to see if it can get a good portion of that "eye" over the Gulf Stream.
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

Re:

#9854 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:48 am

DanKellFla wrote:On Radar, there was and "eye structure" just before Fay made landfall. Since then, it has become better defined.

If the eye goes over Lake O, can the storm strengthen?

The answer is "no." The depth of the lake is extremely shallow, and heat content/tropical cyclone heat potential is virtually non-existant. The "strengthening over the lake" theory is a popular local legend.
0 likes   

User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:

#9855 Postby Meso » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:48 am

GeneratorPower : This isn't a personal attack on him, but Frank2 downplays EVERYTHING, always... I am yet to see him say a system will develop, I've seen maybe 20 "not a chance" type comments, even on storms that have developed just shortly after that was said. Entirely too conservative. Just pointing this out so you know it's not just a today thing.

AS for the storm : http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Convection now on the decrease as the strong reds disappear around the center, but more blow ups on the NE side
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9856 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:50 am

extradited wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
carolina_73 wrote:Right on the NHC track. :wink: She is going to scrape the northern edge of Lake Okeechobee.


Which track? The one from this morning...yesterday...or the day before?

:lol:


What was that supposed to mean :P That NHC did an 'exceptional' job with this forecast?


The models did an exceptional job...by and large...with this track. Where the models were wrong a few days ago...bringing it due north into GA/NC...those track errors were reflected.

This was a relatively easy storm for the models. Not a lot of timing issues to start off with. The problems with the track and intensity will be faced when it moves off the coast again...especially given its current structure and the upper air pattern.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#9857 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:50 am

WSCN, Channel 7, here in Miami was live until an hour ago. They had their two anchors, 9 reports, and 2 meterologists in rotation talking about the storm. Let me tell you. There is no tree that fell in Miami and the areas around that wasn't reported! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
Just Joshing You
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 512
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:29 am
Location: Nova Scotia

#9858 Postby Just Joshing You » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:50 am

Compare the 11 am advisory with what I predicted:

11 AM Advisory

DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A
WELL DEFINED PATTERN...AND IN FACT...RADAR SHOWS A RING OF
CONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE. DOPPLER VELOCITIES
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 986 MB. FAY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.


Mine:

Visible imagery... as well as radar... indicate that FAY has handled exceptionally well while over land. An eye-like feature has become pronounced over the last few hours. Current intensity is held at 50 KT in the short term, with a continuing weakening trend forecasted.
Last edited by Just Joshing You on Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#9859 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:52 am

From NHC discussion...interesting:

THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES FAY A
STRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE WATER JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. DO NOT
RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY YET
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

#9860 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:52 am

Pressure has dropped (over land) two millibars since the preceding advisory...

Note the transition from 988 (8 a.m. EDT) to 986 mb (11 a.m. EDT).

Based on the eye appearing on visibles, this takes the cake and surpasses Erin 2007. Period.
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests