ATL : INVEST 93L

[srainhoutx]

[OuterBanker]

Wow, what a beautiful blob. This season I have a feeling we will grasping at all blobs. It will truly be an off year. Between the SOI and El Nino I think that the Cape Verde season will be non existant. The 1915z blob is symmetric with deep convection, a thing of beauty. Of course it could go poof too. Anyway it is something to watch.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 72 hour forecast by TAFB.

[southerngale]

It was headed for Texas this morning and now it's Florida... the season has officially begun!


If you're on Twitter, follow Storm2k for brief updates.

https://twitter.com/storm2k_org

[OuterBanker]

OK, why south Fla, Are they expecting the trough split to pick it up? I thought this would be a Yucatan to Tx deal.

[caneman]

That ULL is moving SW. In my experience this is classic example of storms coming thru this time of year that this will actually aid in development. Give it another day or two.

[AdamFirst]

OK, why south Fla, Are they expecting the trough split to pick it up? I thought this would be a Yucatan to Tx deal.

The high pressure ridge "of death" over the gulf is standing pat...it would pretty much force it to go north/northeast. That is, if it's still there at the time.


(I'm not a professional, this is just my opinion, yadda yadda yadda)

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wow, what a beautiful blob. This season I have a feeling we will grasping at all blobs. It will truly be an off year. Between the SOI and El Nino I think that the Cape Verde season will be non existant. The 1915z blob is symmetric with deep convection, a thing of beauty. Of course it could go poof too. Anyway it is something to watch.

My SSD flash loop pops a map of the Philippines into one frame, so I had to turn that off, but it is a thing of beauty.

I suspect poofation as well, and if it doesn't poof, it probably goes to Florida, but my lawn would so love a 40 mph dropping 5 inches of rain and leaving by July 4th storm.

[cheezyWXguy]

A hurricane....hmmmmm I don't know about that.

Disclaimer: Internet weenie opinion and not official:


Good point about weaker disturbances surviving Yucatan better that stronger ones.

Seeing the better mid-level convergence I'd gamble with development at this point from past behavior of similar disturbances. The only question will be if it is one of those broad GOM June TS's or something tighter. Still, the wise forecaster waits and sees.

If/Once it develops, there's not a whole lot seen at this point that could really slow it down from becoming a hurricane, unless it continues to drift west, bringing it to slightly cooler water temps, and less time over water. Other than that, especially if it goes NE, then I think its possible-assuming it develops at all-to ramp up in strength and possibly become a hurricane. Much too early at this point tho

According to ships, its a possibility. Conditions aren't all that bad right now, so if some sort of llc gets started, i suppose its possible

[PTrackerLA]

Not so sure a "poof" is imminent. Visible sat shows lots of convergence and continued development of deep convection. Notice the low level clouds streaming into the convection from the SE and SW sides.

[BigA]

I wouldn't be surprised if we get a temporary poof in the sense that convectin will die down at some point, but I think that the environment is becoming increasingly favorable, and If I had to put my money on it, I would say that yes, this becomes classified by this weekend.

[Brent]

WOW, huge and very nice blowup of convection. Looks pretty good this afternoon. I really think this is going to be named.

[drezee]

likely an outflow boundary is about to hit this buoy....pressure dropped 3MB in one hour and winds turned parallel with front of outflow boundary...next hour will tell the tale...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

[cycloneye]

The 18z GFS is more agressive in intensity.I will post the different timeframes in this post.

48 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

72 hours=Tropical Storm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

78 hours=Tropical Storm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

96 hours=Going to Florida Penninsula.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

102 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

114 hours=Landfall north of Tampa.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

120 hours=On Georgias coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

Loop of the 18z GFS run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

There you have it.Comments about this run?

[jdray]

There you have it.Comments about this run?

Go away, we have had enough rain.

[Aric Dunn]

hello .. all
who's excited.. hehe

would say that everything is going for the system at the moment, except for land over the next 24 to 36 hours. right now though there is a large area of concentrated convection but barely any surface reflection. But with such an area of convection and clearly a strong SE inflow and relatively weak inflow on the SW and west side of the convection, there seems to be a increased chance of development before the Yucatan. If the flow through the system was strong from SE then I would say this was no where near any development. but observations show weakening wind field and more convergence over the gulf of Honduras today which would suggest at least a higher chance of development.
one thing must happen and that is, this convection need to persist over night !! if that happens we could wake up to a surface low developing...

[cycloneye]

hello .. all
who's excited.. hehe

would say that everything is going for the system at the moment, except for land over the next 24 to 36 hours. right now though there is a large area of concentrated convection but barely any surface reflection. But with such an area of convection and clearly a strong SE inflow and relatively weak inflow on the SW and west side of the convection, there seems to be a increased chance of development before the Yucatan. If the flow through the system was strong from SE then I would say this was no where near any development. but observations show weakening wind field and more convergence over the gulf of Honduras today which would suggest at least a higher chance of development.
one thing must happen and that is, this convection need to persist over night !! if that happens we could wake up to a surface low developing...

Welcome back my friend.Are you ready to rumble on this?

[Aric Dunn]

hello .. all
who's excited.. hehe

would say that everything is going for the system at the moment, except for land over the next 24 to 36 hours. right now though there is a large area of concentrated convection but barely any surface reflection. But with such an area of convection and clearly a strong SE inflow and relatively weak inflow on the SW and west side of the convection, there seems to be a increased chance of development before the Yucatan. If the flow through the system was strong from SE then I would say this was no where near any development. but observations show weakening wind field and more convergence over the gulf of Honduras today which would suggest at least a higher chance of development.
one thing must happen and that is, this convection need to persist over night !! if that happens we could wake up to a surface low developing...

Welcome back my friend.Are you ready to rumble on this?

oh yes!!!..

was on a vacation/physics seminar for the last 3 weeks

this one has some potential

[Aric Dunn]

likely an outflow boundary is about to hit this buoy....pressure dropped 3MB in one hour and winds turned parallel with front of outflow boundary...next hour will tell the tale...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

that is a huge pressure drop !! for a outflow boundary .. i wonder if its a bad reading ..

[Rainband]

nice TS to help the drought