ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Dave]

That's 997 mb in the coc.

[wxman57]

Going to be impossible to track the center on radar from this point I believe, she is a mess!

If that swirl of low clouds is the center then there's nothing to track on radar. Convection is racing off to the north now. Ida won't be a TS much longer, and I mean having 39+ mph surface winds not cold or warm core.

[Dave]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 02:52Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 09

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Tuesday, 2:52Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 30.2N 88.9W
Location: 17 miles (28 km) to the SE (143°) from Gulfport, MS, USA.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,520 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 80° at 64 knots (From the E at ~ 73.6 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 10°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 6°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,463 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

N INBOUND POINT

[drezee]

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMOB.html

Mobile just gusted to 43 mph

[smw1981]

From the NWS in Mobile.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM CST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH
DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA. RADAR INDICATES THE ESTIMATED RATE OF MOTION
IS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 19 MPH.

the NWS position does not match the aircraft position at all. The center is closer to 88.8W now. Actually has moved to the NW.

I think we have seen this totally decouple

Mobile NWS is saying the same thing as TWC. Wonder where they get their info...

Also, it is definitely getting pretty "breezy" here in Mobile, with fairly heavy rain at times...

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 100258
AF304 0811A IDA HDOB 17 20091110
025100 3015N 08850W 8427 01535 0104 +105 +052 083066 067 032 006 03
025130 3014N 08852W 8430 01534 0103 +103 +054 081064 065 999 999 03
025200 3013N 08852W 8425 01535 0103 +101 +055 080064 064 032 005 03
025230 3011N 08852W 8437 01522 0098 +104 +055 080064 065 030 005 03
025300 3009N 08852W 8432 01525 0095 +104 +054 081065 066 037 002 00
025330 3008N 08852W 8426 01531 0095 +101 +053 081064 065 035 005 00
025400 3006N 08852W 8433 01522 0098 +095 +052 082065 066 036 005 00
025430 3005N 08852W 8433 01520 0091 +103 +051 083064 065 037 003 03
025500 3003N 08852W 8430 01520 0081 +115 +050 086065 067 055 005 03
025530 3001N 08852W 8429 01521 0076 +120 +052 087065 066 042 001 03
025600 3000N 08852W 8429 01517 0075 +121 +053 087065 066 038 004 00
025630 2958N 08852W 8431 01518 0072 +125 +055 090064 064 037 002 00
025700 2957N 08852W 8428 01517 0073 +121 +056 089063 064 039 001 00
025730 2955N 08852W 8433 01513 0071 +123 +057 089060 061 037 002 03
025800 2954N 08852W 8429 01516 0066 +125 +058 089061 062 039 002 00
025830 2952N 08852W 8427 01517 0065 +122 +058 084059 060 042 004 00
025900 2950N 08852W 8430 01511 0065 +121 +059 085057 058 041 002 03
025930 2949N 08852W 8433 01507 0061 +128 +059 088055 056 041 004 03
030000 2947N 08852W 8428 01507 0061 +121 +059 087051 053 063 010 03
030030 2946N 08852W 8429 01509 0063 +117 +059 087050 051 062 004 03
$$
;

[Category 5]

Looks like this thing has decoupled almost completely.

[psyclone]

wxman57, your theory from days ago that there may be nothing to landfall may turn out to be dangerously accurate! the thing has imploded. interesting to note the best convection now resides off of SW florida in the juicy air and actually extends all the way past wrn cuba...that region has gotten alot of ida rains.

[Brent]

the NWS position does not match the aircraft position at all. The center is closer to 88.8W now. Actually has moved to the NW.

I think we have seen this totally decouple

Just looked at a sat pic. Is that the center completely exposed just SE of the mouth of the MS? Surface obs support it. If it is, then it may well never make landfall. New VDM has a fix at 29.1N/88.8W. That's the open swirl on the sat pic below. In addition, looks like cool air stratocumulus flowing into it from the west (that solid light gray cloud mass all along the LA coast to the upper TX coast). Getting cool here in Houston. Have been seeing reports of very strong northerly winds off the mid LA coast this afternoon and evening (our clients). Clearly, cool air is racing out across the Gulf just west of Ida.

NHC says your right

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CONVECTION THAT WAS NEAR THE
CENTER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AND SHEARED OFF TOWARD THE
NORTH. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX THAT POSITIONED
THE CENTER EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA WELL SOUTH OF THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION.

[attallaman]

Beginning to get a little more wind action here right now. Winds are out of the NNE at 24, gusting to 42. The rain seems to be tapering off for now.

Did you get flooding in your area? At the times, that I watched live reports with reporters in MS, AL, AND FL; MS looked like it was getting pounded the worst.

No flooding reported in my county, Harrison but the county to my west bordering LA, Hancock county has had flooding in low lying areas, evacuations were underway in a few areas in Hancock county a few hours ago but I'll say this, the winds are really picking up now here in west Biloxi, it's beginning to sound like TS Bill outside here tonight. I read on WWL TV4 on Twitter that Ida is now down to 65 mph. Where is the NHC still projecting landfall? Mobile Bay area?

[wxman57]

wxman57, your theory from days ago that there may be nothing to landfall may turn out to be dangerously accurate! the thing has imploded. interesting to note the best convection now resides off of SW florida in the juicy air and actually extends all the way past wrn cuba...that region has gotten alot of ida rains.

There's a reason why not too many TCs hit the U.S. in November, particularly west of Florida in the Gulf. I wonder if that low-level swirl will even move ashore? Doesn't really matter, though. Once the squalls to the north are inland, Ida's about dead.

[psyclone]

I concur wxman57 and will bet against a hurricane straying off the reservation (the caribbean) in November every time.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 100308
AF304 0811A IDA HDOB 18 20091110
030100 2944N 08852W 8432 01505 0055 +136 +059 095048 050 052 005 00
030130 2942N 08852W 8429 01508 0053 +134 +060 091046 050 045 004 00
030200 2941N 08852W 8428 01508 0052 +137 +060 093045 047 044 005 00
030230 2939N 08852W 8430 01503 0052 +131 +060 087046 047 051 005 00
030300 2938N 08852W 8436 01494 0052 +125 +060 089044 045 049 003 00
030330 2936N 08852W 8437 01498 0054 +125 +058 093046 047 044 005 03
030400 2934N 08852W 8425 01501 0044 +132 +058 097044 046 048 005 03
030430 2933N 08852W 8432 01497 0039 +139 +058 090041 041 999 999 03
030500 2931N 08852W 8425 01499 0036 +136 +060 092039 040 051 004 03
030530 2930N 08853W 8430 01493 0036 +134 +060 092038 039 049 005 03
030600 2928N 08853W 8434 01484 0032 +137 +060 091032 034 049 005 00
030630 2926N 08853W 8434 01482 0028 +134 +060 087026 028 047 006 00
030700 2925N 08853W 8429 01486 0018 +147 +061 065023 024 047 006 03
030730 2923N 08853W 8421 01490 0016 +147 +062 051028 030 040 006 03
030800 2922N 08852W 8429 01481 0007 +161 +064 040034 035 007 003 03
030830 2920N 08850W 8424 01485 0001 +167 +067 033033 035 009 002 03
030900 2919N 08849W 8427 01481 9992 +180 +070 038031 034 000 004 03
030930 2919N 08847W 8437 01475 9992 +179 +074 044024 026 000 004 03
031000 2917N 08846W 8430 01475 9988 +181 +075 058009 016 999 999 03
031030 2916N 08844W 8434 01470 9985 +185 +076 180007 011 999 999 03
$$
;

[deltadog03]

About that time there bones.....

[bayoubebe]

Beginning to get a little more wind action here right now. Winds are out of the NNE at 24, gusting to 42. The rain seems to be tapering off for now.

Did you get flooding in your area? At the times, that I watched live reports with reporters in MS, AL, AND FL; MS looked like it was getting pounded the worst.

No flooding reported in my county, Harrison but the county to my west bordering LA, Hancock county has had flooding in low lying areas, evacuations were underway in a few areas in Hancock county a few hours ago but I'll say this, the winds are really picking up now here in west Biloxi, it's beginning to sound like TS Bill outside here tonight. I read on WWL TV4 on Twitter that Ida is now down to 65 mph. Where is the NHC still projecting landfall? Mobile Bay area?

Yes, I could see the winds were really strong there too. To my very amateur eyes, it appeared the heaviest rains, and bulk of the storm were going into MS all along. The focus didn't seem to be there though. Although, I have to say our local mets were doing a good job to pay attention to all the lower lying areas. Bay St. Louis was getting it pretty bad a couple of hours ago.
The good news is, thus far, it seemed to be moving quickly.

[Dave]

[ozonepete]

wxman57, your theory from days ago that there may be nothing to landfall may turn out to be dangerously accurate! the thing has imploded. interesting to note the best convection now resides off of SW florida in the juicy air and actually extends all the way past wrn cuba...that region has gotten alot of ida rains.

There's a reason why not too many TCs hit the U.S. in November, particularly west of Florida in the Gulf. I wonder if that low-level swirl will even move ashore? Doesn't really matter, though. Once the squalls to the north are inland, Ida's about dead.

Your initial forecast, based on climo, was right.

[wxman57]

wxman57, your theory from days ago that there may be nothing to landfall may turn out to be dangerously accurate! the thing has imploded. interesting to note the best convection now resides off of SW florida in the juicy air and actually extends all the way past wrn cuba...that region has gotten alot of ida rains.

There's a reason why not too many TCs hit the U.S. in November, particularly west of Florida in the Gulf. I wonder if that low-level swirl will even move ashore? Doesn't really matter, though. Once the squalls to the north are inland, Ida's about dead.

Your initial forecast, based on climo, was right.

Wasn't based on climo, was based on the projected upper-air pattern across the northern Gulf this week. The Gulf has been ripping with shear most of the season.

Time for bed. Another early day tomorrow.

[MGC]

Hardly any tropical feel to the air tonight, kinda chilly to me. Car temp indicated 64 but Gulfport airport is reporting upper 60's. My first and likely only November TC has been different experience than a TC during the warmer months, kinda like Christmas in July.....The center of Ida is clearly visible on radar south of the MS/AL border. Its a mess down in the Gulf, Ida is badly sheared, cool air is being drawn into the circulation. How Ida has not become ET is beyond me. Hopefully this mess gets out of here for tomorrow. Everyone that is in Ida's way stay safe.....MGC

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 100318
AF304 0811A IDA HDOB 19 20091110
031100 2916N 08843W 8427 01478 9983 +192 +076 202012 014 023 005 03
031130 2915N 08841W 8430 01475 9985 +194 +076 202015 016 026 003 03
031200 2913N 08841W 8422 01483 9984 +193 +077 202015 015 026 002 03
031230 2912N 08841W 8429 01477 9983 +192 +077 213014 014 028 003 03
031300 2910N 08840W 8432 01477 9988 +186 +077 223016 017 031 001 03
031330 2909N 08841W 8426 01480 9990 +181 +076 240017 018 028 000 00
031400 2907N 08841W 8432 01476 9987 +193 +075 251016 018 029 002 00
031430 2906N 08841W 8428 01484 9985 +198 +075 253017 019 030 001 03
031500 2904N 08841W 8429 01483 9984 +205 +076 251021 022 028 002 00
031530 2902N 08841W 8430 01486 9987 +205 +078 252026 027 027 002 00
031600 2901N 08841W 8433 01485 9989 +210 +078 257032 036 028 002 00
031630 2859N 08841W 8424 01500 9994 +206 +079 252037 038 026 003 00
031700 2858N 08841W 8430 01495 9995 +207 +079 254036 037 025 003 00
031730 2856N 08841W 8432 01494 0003 +198 +078 254038 039 022 002 00
031800 2855N 08841W 8426 01501 0005 +197 +076 255039 039 018 003 00
031830 2853N 08842W 8429 01502 0005 +199 +075 257040 041 011 003 00
031900 2852N 08842W 8429 01503 0012 +191 +074 253038 040 007 003 00
031930 2850N 08842W 8433 01500 0011 +195 +072 252038 039 010 002 00
032000 2849N 08842W 8435 01500 0018 +188 +072 251042 043 012 002 00
032030 2847N 08842W 8426 01509 0025 +181 +071 245044 045 013 002 00
$$
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