ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CourierPR]

Way too much energy is being spent on 94.

I think you would think differently if 94L were in the Gulf of Mexico.

[x-y-no]

a little bit. However, I am watching closer to 15N for development, not 10N

I don't understand the reasoning ... the strong convergence is down around 10N to 11N. So is the majority of the convection. Why would a center close off so far north of that?

[Blown Away]

TPC's thinking.

[Nimbus]

The elongated circulation is apparently two circulation low level centers that are sharing the broader circulation. I say that because it appears the fujiwara effect is pushing the lagging center further north where it has a better chance of getting picked up by a trough.

[Derek Ortt]

I see the northern feature is the most likely as there appears to be some banding setting up there. Also, based upon the sat, that looks to me where the vorticity is the greatest.

it is also the only area that has model support

[cycloneye]

I think it will be code orange at 8 PM.Anyone agree with me?

[Typhoon_Willie]

I think it will be code orange again. Hell the way things seem to be going a code red may happen.

[caribsue]

I think it will be code orange at 8 PM.Anyone agree with me?

LOL ... Meeee..... better bring back those bears cycloneye

[wxman57]

It’s looking a little better organized now, but convection is still weak. The next 24 hours may decide whether it makes it or not. It’s a bit south to miss the NE Caribbean completely, I think. Models indicate a heading of about 300 degrees from the current position. That may be optimistic unless it does spin up farther north. Euro weakens it beyond 48 hours. Canadian and GFS take it just north of the eastern Caribbean. I wouldn’t rule out a NE Caribbean hit yet. If it tracks into the east Caribbean, models indicate accelerating 850mb winds toward the middle of next week (and dry air), not good for convergence. The Caribbean could kill it if it moves more westerly.

Statistical intensity models are quite bullish on development of this system.
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

GFDL keeps it a TS:
ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/c ... tats.short

HWRF, too:
ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/c ... .stats.tpc

MIMIC TPW shows what looks like a sufficiently moist environment, and rotation similar to systems that developed in that region in 2008:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

It’s certainly not going to be a TD tonight, but it could be tomorrow.

[KWT]

Yeah code orange again seems quite possible soon, probably citing the increase in convection over the last 6hrs as a reason as well I reckon.

I think there is a strengthening circulation around 12-13N right now looking at the loops, thats what most of the clouds appear to be circulating around right now.

[HURAKAN]

Bears watching

[cycloneye]

I think it will be code orange at 8 PM.Anyone agree with me?

LOL ... Meeee..... better bring back those bears cycloneye

Here they are.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF tracking towards the SE Bahamas:

Interesting:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9082912!!/

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF has switched its thinking now bringing this close to the NE Leewards just north of the islands and towards the SE Bahamas (Turks and Caicos) with some riddging to the north.

It also shows zonal flow across the CONUS about the time 94L approaches the SE Bahamas -- that is really interesting as it has shown nothing but troughiness in prior runs.

Of course this is all way out at 192 hours or so...but Hmm......

[x-y-no]

I see the northern feature is the most likely as there appears to be some banding setting up there. Also, based upon the sat, that looks to me where the vorticity is the greatest.

it is also the only area that has model support

OK ... I have to admit you're right a heck of a lot more often than I am.

We'll see what happens.

[funster]

It was smart of 94L to hide down there away from all those ULLs. It is starting to tilt at an angle now so maybe it will develop soon. If it gets into the warm untapped Caribbean waters it will definitely develop, i think. Then a strong cold front could come by and pull it into the gulf and send it racing up the east coast, which does not need any more rain and has lots of trees rooted in damp ground that could easily fall in strong winds.

[cycloneye]

This is the 18z surface analysis from tafb.Places the low around 11.0N-44.0W.



http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

[jlauderdal]

I think it will be code orange at 8 PM.Anyone agree with me?

LOL ... Meeee..... better bring back those bears cycloneye

Here they are.

wheres yogi

[jlauderdal]

It was smart of 94L to hide down there away from all those ULLs. It is starting to tilt at an angle now so maybe it will develop soon. If it gets into the warm untapped Caribbean waters it will definitely develop, i think. Then a strong cold front could come by and pull it into the gulf and send it racing up the east coast, which does not need any more rain and has lots of trees rooted in damp ground that could easily fall in strong winds.

it needed to run in the deep tropics and weak to have a shot, so far it has done exactly that