ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

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caribsue
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Re:

#661 Postby caribsue » Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:40 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Bears watching


How could you miss him
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#662 Postby caribsue » Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:44 pm

Image

And Boo Boo too.
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Re: Re:

#663 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:44 pm

caribsue wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

Bears watching


How could you miss him


missed it, my brain was so whacked by all that infor wxman57 threw at us i scrolled right past our buddy yogi, at any rate at least we have player on the field, so far its been nothing but a big old tease this year, i thought the tease thing ended in HS but its back in 2009, interesting track options available to this system. as always watch and wait and speculate and argue in between
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#664 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:45 pm

meanwhile some rather active convection has appeared on the scene this afternoon in my area, not unexpected but a bit late in the day than the norm
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#665 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:05 pm

Image

Mary poppings!
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#666 Postby MGC » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:11 pm

I would expect 94L to be upgraded to code orange soon. Convection has made a nice comback this afternoon and there is a bit of cyclonic turning observed in the satellite loop......MGC
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#667 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:11 pm

Image

A lot better
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Derek Ortt

#668 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:18 pm

if the center does form this far south, this could become an utter monster. The UL to the north seems to have create an outflow jet
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Re:

#669 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:19 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:if the center does form this far south, this could become an utter monster. The UL to the north seems to have create an outflow jet


:eek:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#670 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:21 pm

Not elongated as in the past days.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#671 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:23 pm

Oh I noticed something,the pass was made just after 5 AM EDT.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#672 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:30 pm

18z GFDL is in the fish camp.

WHXX04 KWBC 292316
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.0 42.0 270./14.0
6 12.2 42.5 339./13.6
12 13.1 43.3 317./11.5
18 13.9 44.3 307./13.2
24 14.7 45.7 302./15.2
30 15.4 47.1 295./15.1
36 16.0 48.0 305./10.6
42 16.7 48.8 311./10.4
48 17.1 49.6 295./ 8.4
54 17.5 50.1 303./ 6.6
60 18.1 50.8 316./ 8.8
66 18.5 51.5 301./ 8.1
72 18.9 52.3 296./ 8.7
78 19.6 52.9 320./ 8.8
84 20.2 53.7 306./ 9.5
90 20.6 54.6 292./ 9.2
96 21.2 55.4 304./10.0
102 21.6 56.3 295./ 9.3
108 21.9 57.1 293./ 8.0
114 22.5 57.7 317./ 7.6
120 23.0 58.4 306./ 8.8
126 23.6 58.7 332./ 6.7
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#673 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:31 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It looks to be on its way now, just some more deep convection over night and boom! I think we could have a very dangerous storm threatening the NE Carib. and this could also become a very large storm in size over time. It continues westward defying the models who in concert have continued to turn this NW, it ain't happening till it deepens and organizes, by then it is going to be too far west to miss the NE Carib. IMO.

Like I said back when it first came off Africa, I have a feeling this one causes trouble in the Carib and the CONUS eventually!

This is just my amateur opinion, you should rely on official forecasts for all your information.

Edited to add storm2k disclaimer=cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#674 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:34 pm

Hmm gains more than 1 degree latitude moving 339 degrees in 6 hours? Lol

0 11.0 42.0 270./14.0
6 12.2 42.5 339./13.6
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#675 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:36 pm

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1245 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
REMAIN LIMITED THIS EVENING. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

Image
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Derek Ortt

#676 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:42 pm

not quite sure I understand that outlook. To me, this appears somewhat better organized structurally today
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#677 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:44 pm

Image

Looking a lot better
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#678 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:45 pm

I agree, this is the best it has looked with what appears to be a consolidating center, convection near that center and a strong outflow jet to the north along with strong cyclonic turning! What Gives at the NHC, Code yellow?

Well then again the convection is limited! :moon2:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#679 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:53 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I agree, this is the best it has looked with what appears to be a consolidating center, convection near that center and a strong outflow jet to the north along with strong cyclonic turning! What Gives at the NHC, Code yellow?

Well then again the convection is limited! :moon2:


Just playing it conservative, this is the time last night when 94L fell apart. Code Orange by 2am, IMO.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Computer Models

#680 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:53 pm

Both GFDL and HWRF turn from now 94L to the NW.Both discounted.

Here is 18z HWRF.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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