ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[hurricanefloyd5]

is there any ship reports or Bouys out there near this thing

[Ivanhater]

Reminder to keep posts about this system, not how many pages a thread has.

[americanre1]

I know 12 hours ago I wrote this system off as not doing much in the next couple days, but after looking at Visible and Water Vapor this system is getting much better organized and will not be shocked to see this as a TS or Cat. 1 by the 2am Saturday Morning.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

inflow continues to increase nicely from the south looking at the VIS floater. It looks alot better than it did this morning. Code RED by 8pm.

[hurricanefloyd5]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 211831
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
231 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...
...TROPICAL WAVE NEAR HISPANIOLA MAY BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...

THU...WL BEGIN TO FEEL PERIPHERAL EFFECTS FROM APCHG TROPICAL WAVE
WITH BACKED LL FLOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.
WITH AREA IN DIFLUENT REGION NO MENTIONABLE POPS ARE FORECAST IN
UNFAVORABLE NE COMPONENT FLOW COUPLED WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...THE TROPICAL WAVE/WEAK TROPICAL LOW WILL MOVE
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST BAHAMAS TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA THU OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO
EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF FLORIDA
FRI AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
FLORIDA...THOUGH THE GFS EXTENDS THE TROF FURTHER NORTHWARD AND
REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE NAM/GFS.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 211850
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...WATCHING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NEAR HISPANIOLA...

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
A CONTINUED RATHER BREEZY EAST WIND FLOW IN THE SAL AIRMASS...AND
JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. A RENEGADE TSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NOTE IN
THE SHORT TERM.

THEN EYES TURN TO WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH REGARDS TO THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR HISPANIOLA. NHC HAS LESSENED THE CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT SINCE THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE TREND THAT HAS BEEN SEEN SINCE YESTERDAY. IT`S
STRUGGLING WITH DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE
LESS AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS WAVE AS WELL. THE GFS NO LONGER
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW...AND IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE 21.00Z ECWMF RUN
WITH JUST A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF IS NOT YET AVAILABLE...BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
IT SHOWS ANYTHING MORE THAN AN OPEN WAVE. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...NAM IS ON THE "WON`T DEVELOP" BANDWAGON AS WELL. GIVEN ALL
OF THIS...HAVE KEPT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
NEIGHBORING WFO`S...SHOWING JUST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FRI AND BEYOND.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND NHC GIVES A 50%
CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS. THUS...THIS OF
COURSE NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AND THE FORECAST
WOULD NEED TO BE CHANGED DRASTICALLY SHOULD THIS WAVE IN FACT
DEVELOP. SO ALTHOUGH THINGS ARE TRENDING MORE OPTIMISTICALLY...ALL
NEED TO STAY TUNED.

forgive me if this is already posted I didn't see any thing like this posted!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[HURAKAN]

Deepening



Mid-level shear decreasing

[Scorpion]

Hope we can at least get some rain out of this... been way too hot and dry lately

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmm still looks like a sheared system to me.
It still has a ways to go IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

18z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 213N, 713W, 30, 1013, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

AL, 97, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 213N, 714W, 30, 1012, DB

Updated

[StormClouds63]

From the New Orleans NWS Discussion:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
244 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

LONG TERM...

ALL EYES ON FOCUSED ON TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHICH LOOKS
QUITE DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. NHC HAS LOWERED THE POSSIBILITY
OF OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION TO 50% WITH ITS LATEST UPDATE. THE
GFS SEEMS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND THE
12Z GEM IS THE STRONGEST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF AT 12Z SATURDAY. FOLLOWING HPC/NHC FORECAST...THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NEAR SOUTHERN LA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL
KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THIS
FEATURE...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DIFFICULT WITH IT MOVING
THROUGH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR. REGARDLESS...WITH THE INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE BUMPED UP POPS FOR SUNDAY.

[Blown Away]

I'm smelling a 'Special Advisory" coming from the NHC soon.

[bvigal]

Katrina thread, a couple of pages in, just for kicks.

viewtopic.php?f=56&t=71118&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=80

LOL! I was thinking the same thing. Have been reading the old threads working up to Katrina, from TD10 to 99L to TD12 etc. VERY interesting, interaction with ULL, frustration on the board at slow/erratic development, some saying poof, others making extremely accurate preditions before it was a TD! (Sure are some very smart people on this board )
Very good reading!!! Here are the other threads before this one:

AFD NWS San Juan=Effects from ex10 in PR,VI
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=70674
(last post from NWS-SJU, nearly exactly describing the role played by lefter MLC 10 and wave "catching up" etc.)

TD 10...Back Again (85 pages!)
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=70542
still call it TD10 for model data on August 19, pg 82:

new invest 99 thread, later TD12
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=71087

clfenwi found and posted this Wed Aug 24, 2005 3:35 am !!!
TPNT KGWC 240715 RTD
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
B. 24/0615Z (73) <---- about 15 min before recon found TS winds and became Katrina
C. XX.X
D. XX.X
E. GOES12
F. TX.X/2.0 -24/0615Z-
G. IR/EIR

UNABLE TO LOCATE LLCC. NO DISCERNABLE CIRCULATION COULD BE FOUND ON IR IMAGERY/ANMTN.

So, for those who are getting frustrated waiting on 97L to develop, relax. Just think back to what a storm Katrina was... on this board were hundreds of posts for days, and at some point a poster called it the "worst invest ever"! :lol:
(hopefully everyone realizes this is a tongue-in-cheek comment, not insinuating this will be another katrina!)

[HURAKAN]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

THEN EYES TURN TO WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH REGARDS TO THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR HISPANIOLA. NHC HAS LESSENED THE CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT SINCE THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE TREND THAT HAS BEEN SEEN SINCE YESTERDAY. IT`S
STRUGGLING WITH DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE
LESS AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS WAVE AS WELL. THE GFS NO LONGER
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW...AND IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE 21.00Z ECWMF RUN
WITH JUST A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF IS NOT YET AVAILABLE...BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
IT SHOWS ANYTHING MORE THAN AN OPEN WAVE. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...NAM IS ON THE "WON`T DEVELOP" BANDWAGON AS WELL. GIVEN ALL
OF THIS...HAVE KEPT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
NEIGHBORING WFO`S...SHOWING JUST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FRI AND BEYOND.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND NHC GIVES A 50%
CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS. THUS...THIS OF
COURSE NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AND THE FORECAST
WOULD NEED TO BE CHANGED DRASTICALLY SHOULD THIS WAVE IN FACT
DEVELOP. SO ALTHOUGH THINGS ARE TRENDING MORE OPTIMISTICALLY...ALL
NEED TO STAY TUNED.

[cycloneye]

I'm smelling a 'Special Advisory" coming from the NHC soon.

Why the smell?

[KWT]

Hmmmmm still looks like a sheared system to me.
It still has a ways to go IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Oh without a doubt its sheared, but I['ve seen sheared hurricanes before, whilst there is shear it is still blowingm up convection with some deep convecvtion to the east, and it has an LLC, even if IMO its real weak (I can maybe just make out a weak westerly low level motion)

Techically its a TD...but whether or not the NHC upgrades it who knows...but it looks as good as Danny did last year so no reason why it can't...

[gatorcane]

Agreed looks more like a TD now than a wave

[tolakram]

Hmmmmm still looks like a sheared system to me.
It still has a ways to go IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Oh without a doubt its sheared, but I['ve seen sheared hurricanes before, whilst there is shear it is still blowingm up convection with some deep convecvtion to the east, and it has an LLC, even if IMO its real weak (I can maybe just make out a weak westerly low level motion)

Techically its a TD...but whether or not the NHC upgrades it who knows...but it looks as good as Danny did last year so no reason why it can't...

I'm not so sure.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

It's having a really tough time closing that center, in my opinion. Looks good for a few frames then elongates and and opens up. More convection is near this 'feature', that's for sure, but I'm no longer sure it's a closed low.

[KWT]

Oh yeah any LLC is real weak and I have to admit I'm struggling to find west winds. Probably not quite there and the NHC won't likely upgrade yet. That being said back to code red is needed IMO.

[Bocadude85]

I'm smelling a 'Special Advisory" coming from the NHC soon.

A special advisory for what?

[sunnyday]

Is the fat lady ready to sing? After years of weather watching, I'm still surprised by the way a storm is "coming this way" in a couple of days," and then the next day nothing is going to happen. I know they are unpredictable, but the quick swing one way or the other is frustrating.