ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[GCANE]

Raw T# 5.8

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt21L.html

How did they come up with that very high number, if TS force winds have not been found at the present mission? They upped to 4.0 now?

Good question! It is now at 6.0 however. I wonder if this is a real RI?

[cycloneye]

Barely a TS per 18z Best Track.

AL, 21, 2010110218, , BEST, 0, 134N, 742W, 35, 1006, TS

[wxman57]

Tomas doesn't appear to be very well organized at all. In fact, no evidence of TS winds, and only marginal evidence of a TD.

You have to admit however, that convection has been persistent and intense today. In my opinion, just a matter of time before it coalesces around the center.... RI probabilities are quite high right now.

Yes, there is at least convection near the center today. One thing about a weaker storm now is that the northerly turn may be a bit delayed. This could take the center not too far east of Jamaica on Friday and maybe just over extreme western Haiti, farther away from Port-au-Prince.

[SouthDadeFish]

The tight circulation seen yesterday, is now very broad and poorly defined.

[cycloneye]

This is scary if it verifies,RI prob of 71%

Code: Select all

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    71% is   5.6 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    65% is   8.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    55% is  11.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    38% is  11.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%)


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

[SouthDadeFish]

SHIPS isn't taking into account the poor structure of the storm. It does show favorable conditions though.

[SouthDadeFish]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 18:38Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 18:21:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°26'N 74°22'W (13.4333N 74.3667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 223 miles (359 km) to the NNE (21°) from Cartagena, Colombia.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,474m (4,836ft) at 850mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 349° at 12kts (From the N at ~ 13.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the SW (219°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 3°C (37°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 7 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:44:20Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAINING AT THE FIX POSN CALM BELOW
SFC WNDS LGT AND VAR INBOUND LEG
RELIED ON TEMP RISE FOR FIX

not impressive.... had to rely on temp rise. Nice.

[cycloneye]

This is from the very bullish ADT. The center is almost two longitudes east of Best Track and plane fixes. No wonder is at 4.0.

[tolakram]

Looks to me like it may have dissipated or nearly so. Heavy heavy storms do not equal a tropical system. There is no apparent mid level circulation that I can find.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

The question is,will they downgrade to TD with the data from recon where it didn't found TS force winds. By the way,the mission is over as plane is acending.

[TCmet]

Tomas doesn't appear to be very well organized at all. In fact, no evidence of TS winds, and only marginal evidence of a TD.

You have to admit however, that convection has been persistent and intense today. In my opinion, just a matter of time before it coalesces around the center.... RI probabilities are quite high right now.

Yes, there is at least convection near the center today. One thing about a weaker storm now is that the northerly turn may be a bit delayed. This could take the center not too far east of Jamaica on Friday and maybe just over extreme western Haiti, farther away from Port-au-Prince.

Even with a more westward motion and/or position, PaP remains on the "bad" side of the landfall. Only good news for Haiti would be if the storm tracks over Cuba, or to the east of PaP... neither of which seem likely right now. Even a disorganized barely TD/TS on the current NHC track would be devastating for the 1.5 million IDPs sleeping outdoors every night.

[wxman57]

The question is,will they downgrade to TD with the data from recon where it didn't found TS winds. By the way,the mission is over as plane is ascending.

They did report one 33kt SFMR that wasn't flagged, but FL winds there were only 21 kts. Model data just issued has 35 kts at 00hrs, so I think NHC will go 35 kts for the initial intensity at 4pm CDT. May be a bit generous.

This weaker storm will likely go farther west before turning north. Could pass very near Kingston, Jamaica Friday morning. Good news for Haiti is that this would mean the strongest wind would just clip extreme western parts of the country. They'd still get heavy rain, though.

[jconsor]

The other problem with some recent ADT estimates is they thought Tomas had an eye (LOL) and used that as the "storm scene type" on which to base their intensity estimates:

2010NOV02 164500 3.9 991.9/ +3.5 / 63.0 3.9 4.4 5.8 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -36.36 -68.95 EYE 20 IR N/A 12.59 72.69 SPRL
2010NOV02 171500 4.0 990.5/ +3.5 / 65.0 4.0 4.4 6.0 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -32.66 -69.87 EYE -99 IR N/A 12.71 72.65 COMBO

This is one case where traditional, human-derived satellite estimates are much closer to the truth:

02/1745 UTC 13.5N 73.9W T2.5/2.5 TOMAS -- Atlantic

This is from the very bullish ADT. The center is almost two longitudes east of Best Track and plane fixes. No wonder is at 4.0.

[cycloneye]

The other problem with some recent ADT estimates is they thought Tomas had an eye (LOL) and used that as the "storm scene type" on which to base their intensity estimates:

2010NOV02 164500 3.9 991.9/ +3.5 / 63.0 3.9 4.4 5.8 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -36.36 -68.95 EYE 20 IR N/A 12.59 72.69 SPRL
2010NOV02 171500 4.0 990.5/ +3.5 / 65.0 4.0 4.4 6.0 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -32.66 -69.87 EYE -99 IR N/A 12.71 72.65 COMBO

This is one case where traditional, human-derived satellite estimates are much closer to the truth:

02/1745 UTC 13.5N 73.9W T2.5/2.5 TOMAS -- Atlantic

This is from the very bullish ADT. The center is almost two longitudes east of Best Track and plane fixes. No wonder is at 4.0.

And then they come with this?

[jlauderdal]

Tomas doesn't appear to be very well organized at all. In fact, no evidence of TS winds, and only marginal evidence of a TD.

You have to admit however, that convection has been persistent and intense today. In my opinion, just a matter of time before it coalesces around the center.... RI probabilities are quite high right now.

Yes, there is at least convection near the center today. One thing about a weaker storm now is that the northerly turn may be a bit delayed. This could take the center not too far east of Jamaica on Friday and maybe just over extreme western Haiti, farther away from Port-au-Prince.

That would be JB's track

[hurricaneCW]

The thing is that for Haiti, no matter what happens with Tomas is very likely to get heavy rain from this system. Even if Tomas impacts Haiti as a tropical storm, they would get heavy rains and potentially disastrous results. The wind is not that big of an issue, it's always the rains. I'm still surprised they think it will ramp up to a Category 2 before landfall because it looks so disorganized right now and it may not even be a TS anymore. It does look like the shear has weakened a good bit and the environment is much more moist than before so I think Tomas could strengthen by tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Watch issued for Jamaica

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THESE
AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

[hurricaneCW]

At this point I'll be amazed if Tomas makes it even to Category 2 strength.

[guyclaude08]

I'm still impress with tomas cuz it's a fighter but someone's on this forum said days ago that tomas would regain strength on wednesday and I think he was right, tomorrow tomas will definitely gets his act together I don't see why it wouldn't