cycloneye wrote:
How did they come up with that very high number, if TS force winds have not been found at the present mission? They upped to 4.0 now?
Good question! It is now at 6.0 however. I wonder if this is a real RI?
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cycloneye wrote:
How did they come up with that very high number, if TS force winds have not been found at the present mission? They upped to 4.0 now?
TCmet wrote:wxman57 wrote:Tomas doesn't appear to be very well organized at all. In fact, no evidence of TS winds, and only marginal evidence of a TD.
You have to admit however, that convection has been persistent and intense today. In my opinion, just a matter of time before it coalesces around the center.... RI probabilities are quite high right now.
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Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 71% is 5.6 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 65% is 8.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 55% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 38% is 11.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
wxman57 wrote:TCmet wrote:wxman57 wrote:Tomas doesn't appear to be very well organized at all. In fact, no evidence of TS winds, and only marginal evidence of a TD.
You have to admit however, that convection has been persistent and intense today. In my opinion, just a matter of time before it coalesces around the center.... RI probabilities are quite high right now.
Yes, there is at least convection near the center today. One thing about a weaker storm now is that the northerly turn may be a bit delayed. This could take the center not too far east of Jamaica on Friday and maybe just over extreme western Haiti, farther away from Port-au-Prince.
cycloneye wrote:The question is,will they downgrade to TD with the data from recon where it didn't found TS winds. By the way,the mission is over as plane is ascending.
cycloneye wrote:This is from the very bullish ADT. The center is almost two longitudes east of Best Track and plane fixes. No wonder is at 4.0.
jconsor wrote:The other problem with some recent ADT estimates is they thought Tomas had an eye (LOL) and used that as the "storm scene type" on which to base their intensity estimates:
2010NOV02 164500 3.9 991.9/ +3.5 / 63.0 3.9 4.4 5.8 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -36.36 -68.95 EYE 20 IR N/A 12.59 72.69 SPRL
2010NOV02 171500 4.0 990.5/ +3.5 / 65.0 4.0 4.4 6.0 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -32.66 -69.87 EYE -99 IR N/A 12.71 72.65 COMBO
This is one case where traditional, human-derived satellite estimates are much closer to the truth:
02/1745 UTC 13.5N 73.9W T2.5/2.5 TOMAS -- Atlanticcycloneye wrote:This is from the very bullish ADT. The center is almost two longitudes east of Best Track and plane fixes. No wonder is at 4.0.
wxman57 wrote:TCmet wrote:wxman57 wrote:Tomas doesn't appear to be very well organized at all. In fact, no evidence of TS winds, and only marginal evidence of a TD.
You have to admit however, that convection has been persistent and intense today. In my opinion, just a matter of time before it coalesces around the center.... RI probabilities are quite high right now.
Yes, there is at least convection near the center today. One thing about a weaker storm now is that the northerly turn may be a bit delayed. This could take the center not too far east of Jamaica on Friday and maybe just over extreme western Haiti, farther away from Port-au-Prince.
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