ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - RECON DISCUSSION

[clfenwi]

And this mission is over... Gulfstream IV is flying right now... next recon mission launches at 11 PM EDT and is scheduled to arrive in the vicinity of Bonnie around 1 AM.

[cycloneye]

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0403A CYCLONE
C. 23/0300Z
D. 24.5.0N 78.5.0W
E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Dave, why will they fly to 15,000 feet instead of the 10,000 that they do the majority of their missions?

[Dave]

Dave, why will they fly down to 15,000 feet instead of the 10,000 that they do the majority of their missions?

Flight up to 15,000 ft, checking the temps in the core to see if it's warming or cooling higher up.

[cycloneye]

Plane has decended to operational altitud. Lets see what will be the % of reduction.

[jlauderdal]

There's also the Homestead Air Force Reserve Base just north of Key Largo!

opa locka too, i have seen them make a pit stop there in there past

[americanre1]

Is the pressure gradient drop of 3 mb just because of being over water instead of land??

[americanre1]

054230 2420N 07805W 8432 01559 0081 +186 +169 065027 028 074 007 03

So glad that one is flagged, because that would be a big time jump. But pressure is already down to 1007 and not close to where the LLC is suppose to be. That would be a wind gust of about 85 MPH, correct?

[supercane]

Looks like operational altitude of 850 mb, so flight level wind reduction factor of 80%.

[supercane]

Relatively weak winds thus far. Also, it appears likely that the center is still at the SW edge of the convective blowup.

[brunota2003]

Much calmer in here thank goodness! I think what we may see is the old llc is beig left behind by the convection, while a new one is forming in the convection. It would not be the first time we've seen a storm literally spit out it's llc. I will be interested to see if recon finds the lowest pressures in the convection, and maybe the beginnings of (or one already present) another llc. If the lowest pressures are in the deepest parts of the convection, it could be a signal that the llc is about to jump over under it.

[cycloneye]

What is the latest Brunota? Have they closed the circulation?

[brunota2003]

There was one, and then on the last pass, they couldn't find it (was the one to the SW of the convection)...so right now they are circling the deep convection trying to close one off...had winds from 72 to 218 thus far...or roughly ENE to SSW.

[tolakram]

The LLC should, I say should, be south of there they are ... very confused storm.

[caneman]

I don't think this will go West of N.O. I stated last night that if you look at the cloud pattern you will see exactly where it is going. Now it's look like MS. AL. or Panhandle. Not that there will be much if anything left. At the speed it's moving, I doubt it will be much.

[brunota2003]

The Binoculars are RECCO observations (I dont post them usually, along with most dropsondes). The little plane icon gives the information about the plane's status at the very end of the data. For the last image, it would be:

As of the last observation at 10:43:00Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: SE (138°)
Location: 25 miles (41 km) to the SSE (157°) from Miami, FL, USA.

Just so you don't think I ignored you, ravyrn

[brunota2003]

We now have NE to SSW, or 51 to 218 thus far. Slowly (agonizingly slow) getting there.

I wonder if the 8 am will hinge on what the rest of this pass turns up? What happens if there isn't a circulation? This plane has only maybe another hour on station to close off a circulation.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Wait. what do those numbers mean. ya know, you will say, down to 51.

[brunota2003]

They are degrees for wind direction. You need all 360 degrees (think of a compass) to have a complete circulation. So far they have found winds from NE (51 degrees to be exact) to SSW (or 218 degrees).

[Hurricane Andrew]

So no westerly yet?

I also think if the center relocates to the middle of the convection (it might have already) Then it will get much better orginized.

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[brunota2003]

They found it...finally...and much better presentation of this center than the old one. Now we wait for the VDM.