ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Bocadude85]

So is this going to pass south of Florida? Judging by the low lat it would have to right?

[blp]

True, but the ULL is helping to increase convection in 97L so when the ULL departs the convection will probably decrease...

It has an LLC now and High Pressure building in. It does not need the ULL to enhance convection.

[canes04]

As mentioned yesterday, today was going to be interesting.
If this system can develop a solid core today, then anything is possible.

[ronjon]

Avila, Avila - no wonder I became angry with him about 25 years ago...

I'm sorry, but the STWO is much more exciting than what the VIS shows, and there's a HUGH ULL over us (South Florida) at this time - not exactly what I'd call a favorable environment, but the STWO is going to drive the media into a frenzy (and the public):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Frank

I think the NHC is doing due diligence this morning. It's not the NHCs fault the media hypes everything. It is clearly a closed circulation with at least TD winds - what else do u expect? Is it likely to be a hurricane prior to a S FL landfall - ah no. But a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, sure.

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
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invest_al032010.invest
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U
040
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0000
201007221236
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[Aquawind]

Hmmm I just got a look at the visable..and it took them a special statement at 8:25...What the heck is up with that.. it's been pretty obvious looking at the loops. Stubborn Mules need a kick now n then.

[TexasF6]

Good morning all, what a difference a day makes!!! I had a storm formation "gut check" feeling last night when a poster reported that 60mph wind gust on a Carnival cruise line ship? I thought then 97L was getting it together....once we have better recon data we'll see where she is heading.....

[Chacor]

AL, 03, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, M,

[Air Force Met]

Avila, Avila - no wonder I became angry with him about 25 years ago...

I'm sorry, but the STWO is much more exciting than what the VIS shows, and there's a HUGH ULL over us (South Florida) at this time - not exactly what I'd call a favorable environment, but the STWO is going to drive the media into a frenzy (and the public):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Frank

It's the right call. There is no doubt this is a TD...and given the winds being reported by ships in the area...recon will probably find a TS.

I see absolutely nothing wrong in what Avila said...and as most know...I'm not a huge fan of his.

I don't see where the STWO hyped anything or said anything that wasn't true. A low has formed and its fairly obvious. Lack of shear is not a pre-req to upgrading a system.

[blp]

Hmmm I just got a look at the visable..and it took them a special statement at 8:25...What the heck is up with that.. it's been pretty obvious looking at the loops. Stubborn Mules need a kick now n then.

Yea I could not understand them keeping at 40% at 2am when it was clearly improving in structure. My guess is they did not want to get burned like the day before when they prematurely upgraded to 70% when it was not ready.

[TheBurn]

If they gave it 70% chance 2 days ago and it now is a Tropical Depression... wouldn't that mean they were right? Isn't it 70% chance of development in 48 hours? Just curious.

[Bocadude85]

With the ULL diving to the SW still what effect will that have if it gets south of our system? Will it have any effect on track? Because looking at water vapor it looks if the system moved wnw that it would track right under the ULL

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[thetruesms]

It's the right call. There is no doubt this is a TD...and given the winds being reported by ships in the area...recon will probably find a TS.

I see absolutely nothing wrong in what Avila said...and as most know...I'm not a huge fan of his.

I don't see where the STWO hyped anything or said anything that wasn't true. A low has formed and its fairly obvious. Lack of shear is not a pre-req to upgrading a system.

Sorry if it feels like piling on Frank, but I agree. It's got a closed circulation, sustained convection near the center, and winds that are approaching TS strength. Yes, the ULL is throwing up some shear to disfigure the western half, but being beautiful isn't a requirement. It just has to be pretty enough, which it is. No hype in the STWO, just a quick recitation of why they're doing what they're doing. I don't even know if Avila knows how to hype

[Air Force Met]

If they gave it 70% chance 2 days ago and it now is a Tropical Depression... wouldn't that mean they were right? Isn't it 70% chance of development in 48 hours? Just curious.

Yes...but they lowered it to 40%...which in my opinion was a bad call. I would not have lowered it to 40%...especially given how sharp the trof axis was yesterday.

That's sort of like this: If I issued a TAF at 12Z (station forecast) calling for severe thunderstorms at 00Z...then took that out of my forecast at the 20Z update...then at 00Z we got severe thunderstorms...I blew my forecast. It doesn't matter what I WAS forecasting...it matters what I AM forecasting.

If that makes sense.

[TheBurn]

10-4. Understood AFM. Thanks.

[blp]

It's the right call. There is no doubt this is a TD...and given the winds being reported by ships in the area...recon will probably find a TS.

I see absolutely nothing wrong in what Avila said...and as most know...I'm not a huge fan of his.

I don't see where the STWO hyped anything or said anything that wasn't true. A low has formed and its fairly obvious. Lack of shear is not a pre-req to upgrading a system.

Sorry if it feels like piling on Frank, but I agree. It's got a closed circulation, sustained convection near the center, and winds that are approaching TS strength. Yes, the ULL is throwing up some shear to disfigure the western half, but being beautiful isn't a requirement. It just has to be pretty enough, which it is. No hype in the STWO, just a quick recitation of why they're doing what they're doing. I don't even know if Avila knows how to hype

No kidding, hype and Avila don't go together. He is very conservative.

[Aquawind]

It was Roberts! Roberts played Avila to get the Special Statement! Blame Him!

[jlauderdal]

If they gave it 70% chance 2 days ago and it now is a Tropical Depression... wouldn't that mean they were right? Isn't it 70% chance of development in 48 hours? Just curious.

Yes...but they lowered it to 40%...which in my opinion was a bad call. I would not have lowered it to 40%...especially given how sharp the trof axis was yesterday.

That's sort of like this: If I issued a TAF at 12Z (station forecast) calling for severe thunderstorms at 00Z...then took that out of my forecast at the 20Z update...then at 00Z we got severe thunderstorms...I blew my forecast. It doesn't matter what I WAS forecasting...it matters what I AM forecasting.

If that makes sense.

are we going to get one of your hand drawn maps that I like so much?

[Air Force Met]

...but being beautiful isn't a requirement. It just has to be pretty enough, which it is. No hype in the STWO, just a quick recitation of why they're doing what they're doing. I don't even know if Avila knows how to hype

HA! Isn't that the truth. As I said before...as "Round Up" is to weeds...Avila is to tropical systems.

Given he is workin the first shift...I predict the track will land right in the middle of the guidance and he won't bring the intensity up past 50 kts. He doesn't like to strengthen systems...especially ones that are sheared...if the models aren't calling for it. Rememmber he only brought Alex to 40 kts because of that reason...even though the upper winds forecasts were showing a massive high.

Just a guess

[AdamFirst]

You think TD3 is stairstepping at the moment?

People on another website claim it's stumbling WNW to NW