ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1541 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:41 am

So is this going to pass south of Florida? Judging by the low lat it would have to right?
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re:

#1542 Postby blp » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:42 am

Frank2 wrote:True, but the ULL is helping to increase convection in 97L so when the ULL departs the convection will probably decrease...



It has an LLC now and High Pressure building in. It does not need the ULL to enhance convection.
0 likes   

canes04
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 302
Joined: Sat May 22, 2004 5:41 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1543 Postby canes04 » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:42 am

As mentioned yesterday, today was going to be interesting.
If this system can develop a solid core today, then anything is possible.
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1544 Postby ronjon » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:43 am

Frank2 wrote:Avila, Avila - no wonder I became angry with him about 25 years ago...

I'm sorry, but the STWO is much more exciting than what the VIS shows, and there's a HUGH ULL over us (South Florida) at this time - not exactly what I'd call a favorable environment, but the STWO is going to drive the media into a frenzy (and the public):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Frank


I think the NHC is doing due diligence this morning. It's not the NHCs fault the media hypes everything. It is clearly a closed circulation with at least TD winds - what else do u expect? Is it likely to be a hurricane prior to a S FL landfall - ah no. But a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, sure.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#1545 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:44 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al032010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007221236
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
0 likes   

User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:

#1546 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:45 am

Hmmm I just got a look at the visable..and it took them a special statement at 8:25...What the heck is up with that.. it's been pretty obvious looking at the loops. Stubborn Mules need a kick now n then.
0 likes   

User avatar
TexasF6
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 816
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:33 pm
Location: Austin, TX

#1547 Postby TexasF6 » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:45 am

Good morning all, what a difference a day makes!!! I had a storm formation "gut check" feeling last night when a poster reported that 60mph wind gust on a Carnival cruise line ship? I thought then 97L was getting it together....once we have better recon data we'll see where she is heading..... :flag:
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#1548 Postby Chacor » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:48 am

AL, 03, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, M,
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1549 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:48 am

Frank2 wrote:Avila, Avila - no wonder I became angry with him about 25 years ago...

I'm sorry, but the STWO is much more exciting than what the VIS shows, and there's a HUGH ULL over us (South Florida) at this time - not exactly what I'd call a favorable environment, but the STWO is going to drive the media into a frenzy (and the public):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Frank


It's the right call. There is no doubt this is a TD...and given the winds being reported by ships in the area...recon will probably find a TS.

I see absolutely nothing wrong in what Avila said...and as most know...I'm not a huge fan of his.

I don't see where the STWO hyped anything or said anything that wasn't true. A low has formed and its fairly obvious. Lack of shear is not a pre-req to upgrading a system.
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re:

#1550 Postby blp » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:50 am

Aquawind wrote:Hmmm I just got a look at the visable..and it took them a special statement at 8:25...What the heck is up with that.. it's been pretty obvious looking at the loops. Stubborn Mules need a kick now n then.


Yea I could not understand them keeping at 40% at 2am when it was clearly improving in structure. My guess is they did not want to get burned like the day before when they prematurely upgraded to 70% when it was not ready.
Last edited by blp on Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheBurn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 540
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:00 pm
Location: Rincon, PR

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1551 Postby TheBurn » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:52 am

If they gave it 70% chance 2 days ago and it now is a Tropical Depression... wouldn't that mean they were right? Isn't it 70% chance of development in 48 hours? Just curious.
0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1552 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:53 am

With the ULL diving to the SW still what effect will that have if it gets south of our system? Will it have any effect on track? Because looking at water vapor it looks if the system moved wnw that it would track right under the ULL

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
0 likes   

User avatar
thetruesms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 844
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:14 pm
Location: Tallahasee, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1553 Postby thetruesms » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:53 am

Air Force Met wrote:It's the right call. There is no doubt this is a TD...and given the winds being reported by ships in the area...recon will probably find a TS.

I see absolutely nothing wrong in what Avila said...and as most know...I'm not a huge fan of his.

I don't see where the STWO hyped anything or said anything that wasn't true. A low has formed and its fairly obvious. Lack of shear is not a pre-req to upgrading a system.
Sorry if it feels like piling on Frank, but I agree. It's got a closed circulation, sustained convection near the center, and winds that are approaching TS strength. Yes, the ULL is throwing up some shear to disfigure the western half, but being beautiful isn't a requirement. It just has to be pretty enough, which it is. No hype in the STWO, just a quick recitation of why they're doing what they're doing. I don't even know if Avila knows how to hype :lol:
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1554 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:55 am

TheBurn wrote:If they gave it 70% chance 2 days ago and it now is a Tropical Depression... wouldn't that mean they were right? Isn't it 70% chance of development in 48 hours? Just curious.


Yes...but they lowered it to 40%...which in my opinion was a bad call. I would not have lowered it to 40%...especially given how sharp the trof axis was yesterday.

That's sort of like this: If I issued a TAF at 12Z (station forecast) calling for severe thunderstorms at 00Z...then took that out of my forecast at the 20Z update...then at 00Z we got severe thunderstorms...I blew my forecast. It doesn't matter what I WAS forecasting...it matters what I AM forecasting.

If that makes sense.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheBurn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 540
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:00 pm
Location: Rincon, PR

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1555 Postby TheBurn » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:57 am

10-4. Understood AFM. Thanks.
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1556 Postby blp » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:57 am

thetruesms wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:It's the right call. There is no doubt this is a TD...and given the winds being reported by ships in the area...recon will probably find a TS.

I see absolutely nothing wrong in what Avila said...and as most know...I'm not a huge fan of his.

I don't see where the STWO hyped anything or said anything that wasn't true. A low has formed and its fairly obvious. Lack of shear is not a pre-req to upgrading a system.
Sorry if it feels like piling on Frank, but I agree. It's got a closed circulation, sustained convection near the center, and winds that are approaching TS strength. Yes, the ULL is throwing up some shear to disfigure the western half, but being beautiful isn't a requirement. It just has to be pretty enough, which it is. No hype in the STWO, just a quick recitation of why they're doing what they're doing. I don't even know if Avila knows how to hype :lol:


No kidding, hype and Avila don't go together. He is very conservative.
0 likes   

User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:

#1557 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:00 am

It was Roberts! Roberts played Avila to get the Special Statement! Blame Him! :lol:
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1558 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:00 am

Air Force Met wrote:
TheBurn wrote:If they gave it 70% chance 2 days ago and it now is a Tropical Depression... wouldn't that mean they were right? Isn't it 70% chance of development in 48 hours? Just curious.


Yes...but they lowered it to 40%...which in my opinion was a bad call. I would not have lowered it to 40%...especially given how sharp the trof axis was yesterday.

That's sort of like this: If I issued a TAF at 12Z (station forecast) calling for severe thunderstorms at 00Z...then took that out of my forecast at the 20Z update...then at 00Z we got severe thunderstorms...I blew my forecast. It doesn't matter what I WAS forecasting...it matters what I AM forecasting.

If that makes sense.


are we going to get one of your hand drawn maps that I like so much?
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1559 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:00 am

thetruesms wrote: ...but being beautiful isn't a requirement. It just has to be pretty enough, which it is. No hype in the STWO, just a quick recitation of why they're doing what they're doing. I don't even know if Avila knows how to hype :lol:

HA! Isn't that the truth. As I said before...as "Round Up" is to weeds...Avila is to tropical systems.

Given he is workin the first shift...I predict the track will land right in the middle of the guidance and he won't bring the intensity up past 50 kts. He doesn't like to strengthen systems...especially ones that are sheared...if the models aren't calling for it. Rememmber he only brought Alex to 40 kts because of that reason...even though the upper winds forecasts were showing a massive high.

Just a guess :-)
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#1560 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:00 am

You think TD3 is stairstepping at the moment?

People on another website claim it's stumbling WNW to NW
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests