ATL: FIONA - Models

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro..approaching NE Islands

[carolina_73]

I'm confused, what is turning into FL on that run?

That should be Fiona taking a W turn at the end.

[Ivanhater]

[shah8]

Whelps.

I think the bloods gonna be pumping for many people very soon.

[Ivanhater]

180 hours..00z Euro coming in much further South than the 12z run

[Vortex]

How much further south?

[Ivanhater]

But looks like a trough will turn her

[shah8]

Okay, judging from the 12z, it looks like the trough is faster, but not amplified more than earlier. I have that right?

[Scorpion]

Same solution as 12z

[shah8]

What's the general motion? It looks about 200+ miles west and it looks to me like it should be something like at a 300-320 heading. If the heading that I'm guessing is right, that's really bad.

[shah8]

Models:

No more westward drifts. No more space before really bad things happen.

[Scorpion]

[T'Bonz]

long range Canadian sez off of Ft Lauderdale. Far as I can see, but I'd like to see synoptic dynamics.

Yikes! Tell the long-term Canadian to shut up!

[ColinDelia]

HWRF 0z. 120 hours

[ColinDelia]

0Z Canadian. 240 hours

[KWT]

This one is a real big threat and I'll tell you why, because the models are showing a upper high forming once Earl does try to lift out...I think there will be no recurve with this one till its inland in the east coast...

As others have know I'm not shy to say what I think...and I think this one is a very high risk set-up.

The GFS now suggesting a NE Caribbean hit just a few days after Earl...thats probably the primary concern for now.

[I-wall]

This one is a real big threat and I'll tell you why, because the models are showing a upper high forming once Earl does try to lift out...I think there will be no recurve with this one till its inland in the east coast...

As others have know I'm not shy to say what I think...and I think this one is a very high risk set-up.

The GFS now suggesting a NE Caribbean hit just a few days after Earl...thats probably the primary concern for now.

Any chance of a GOM threat?

[KWT]

Probably not, the upper high isn't really strong enough shunt this that far west but it'll probably have enough in it to at least make it a very large east coast threat.

The 00z runs now suggest a movement pretty much paralell to the east coast rather close to what Earl is expected to do by the GFS...Now that it is becoming increasingly obvious EArl will stay on the more westerly solution, it gives the upper ridge less time to build in and shunt Fiona on a due west track so the main threat from this one will be the Carolinas northwards I suspect...but then again plenty of time for this one to shift west as welll....

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS. 96 hours.

[ColinDelia]

102 hours


Note GFS has this at 1005 mbs at this time
SHIPS has 75 knots about then which is probably between 990 and 995 mbs