ATL: FIONA - Models

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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#181 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:24 am

00z Euro..approaching NE Islands

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#182 Postby carolina_73 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:26 am

Scorpion wrote:I'm confused, what is turning into FL on that run?


That should be Fiona taking a W turn at the end.
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#183 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:30 am

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#184 Postby shah8 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:31 am

Whelps.

I think the bloods gonna be pumping for many people very soon.
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#185 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:38 am

180 hours..00z Euro coming in much further South than the 12z run
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#186 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:45 am

How much further south?
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#187 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:45 am

But looks like a trough will turn her

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#188 Postby shah8 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:52 am

Okay, judging from the 12z, it looks like the trough is faster, but not amplified more than earlier. I have that right?
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#189 Postby Scorpion » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:57 am

Same solution as 12z

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#190 Postby shah8 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:10 am

What's the general motion? It looks about 200+ miles west and it looks to me like it should be something like at a 300-320 heading. If the heading that I'm guessing is right, that's really bad.
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#191 Postby shah8 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:11 am

Models:

No more westward drifts. No more space before really bad things happen.
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#192 Postby Scorpion » Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:12 am

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Re:

#193 Postby T'Bonz » Sat Aug 28, 2010 2:28 am

shah8 wrote:long range Canadian sez off of Ft Lauderdale. Far as I can see, but I'd like to see synoptic dynamics.


Yikes! Tell the long-term Canadian to shut up!
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#194 Postby ColinDelia » Sat Aug 28, 2010 4:40 am

HWRF 0z. 120 hours

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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#195 Postby ColinDelia » Sat Aug 28, 2010 4:43 am

0Z Canadian. 240 hours

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#196 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:06 am

This one is a real big threat and I'll tell you why, because the models are showing a upper high forming once Earl does try to lift out...I think there will be no recurve with this one till its inland in the east coast...

As others have know I'm not shy to say what I think...and I think this one is a very high risk set-up.

The GFS now suggesting a NE Caribbean hit just a few days after Earl...thats probably the primary concern for now.
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Re:

#197 Postby I-wall » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:12 am

KWT wrote:This one is a real big threat and I'll tell you why, because the models are showing a upper high forming once Earl does try to lift out...I think there will be no recurve with this one till its inland in the east coast...

As others have know I'm not shy to say what I think...and I think this one is a very high risk set-up.

The GFS now suggesting a NE Caribbean hit just a few days after Earl...thats probably the primary concern for now.

Any chance of a GOM threat?
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#198 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:18 am

Probably not, the upper high isn't really strong enough shunt this that far west but it'll probably have enough in it to at least make it a very large east coast threat.

The 00z runs now suggest a movement pretty much paralell to the east coast rather close to what Earl is expected to do by the GFS...Now that it is becoming increasingly obvious EArl will stay on the more westerly solution, it gives the upper ridge less time to build in and shunt Fiona on a due west track so the main threat from this one will be the Carolinas northwards I suspect...but then again plenty of time for this one to shift west as welll....
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#199 Postby ColinDelia » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:22 am

6z GFS. 96 hours.
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#200 Postby ColinDelia » Sat Aug 28, 2010 5:29 am

102 hours
Image

Note GFS has this at 1005 mbs at this time
SHIPS has 75 knots about then which is probably between 990 and 995 mbs
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