ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Here's an animation I made of the 12Z GFS positions. Isobars are plotted every 0.25 millibar to give better resolution. Valid times are at the bottom of the animation. I'll just post a link to the animation, as it's about 1MB in size.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/GFSloop.gif

Interesting... thanks. It's so hard to tell where the center goes from the maps, at least for me. Sure looks to meander around a little... even taking a tiny dip back into the GOM in SW LA. lol

That has it moving offshore right over my house just east of Destin, looks like it will be a good 70 miles further east from the radar trends if the surface low is moving in tandem with the radar circulation.

[KWT]

Looks like Aric nailed it, the low has dropped south to a position about 20 miles ENE of Panama City. Convection is sustaining and rotating there on radar.

Yeah radar really shows how that low has formed in the last hour or two, its probably open right now but given it will be over water pretty soon it probably won't takr much to reclose the system again so to speak!

[brunota2003]

12Z EURO would suggest even more west to mid-Texas coast...if that was the case then it would have plenty of water to get going....I wouldnt discount it WXMN57.....

this whole scenario seems eerily similar to IVAN II....it also hugged the coast a good ways before coming ashore in SWLA....

Ivan came off the VA/Maryland coast line, traveled over the Atlantic across Florida and then into the Gulf way further south.

[Dean4Storms]

Did a search through WUnderground weather stations ENE of Panama City, they show pressures around 29.81" where I'm at 29.84" so it looks like the lowest pressure is near that rotation on radar.

[HeeBGBz]

Very intense electrical storm in Biloxi north of I10. Heavy downpour, loads of lightning. Dark as night.

[southerngale]

12Z EURO would suggest even more west to mid-Texas coast...if that was the case then it would have plenty of water to get going....I wouldnt discount it WXMN57.....

this whole scenario seems eerily similar to IVAN II....it also hugged the coast a good ways before coming ashore in SWLA....

hmmm... that's not what I saw. Can you post the link in the models thread?

[wxman57]

12Z EURO would suggest even more west to mid-Texas coast...if that was the case then it would have plenty of water to get going....I wouldnt discount it WXMN57.....

this whole scenario seems eerily similar to IVAN II....it also hugged the coast a good ways before coming ashore in SWLA....

The Euro has been too far west with almost every storm this year (if not every one). For now, I discount it.

[cwachal]

you would not have thought that TD5 would be a "long track" system

[tolakram]

15 frame Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

You can modify that link to move the location around and increase the number of frames (30 max).

[caneman]

12Z EURO would suggest even more west to mid-Texas coast...if that was the case then it would have plenty of water to get going....I wouldnt discount it WXMN57.....

this whole scenario seems eerily similar to IVAN II....it also hugged the coast a good ways before coming ashore in SWLA....

The Euro has been too far west with almost every storm this year (if not every one). For now, I discount it.

Ahhhh, Thanks wxmn57, I'm sure the Euro crowd here on Storm 2K won't like to hear it but the truth hurts and now get back to the blending of models . Just as NHC does.

[caneman]

Steve has mentioned this before but the Euro has a West bias just as some other models have a East bias. That West bias has clearly shown its head this year.

[Dean4Storms]

Reports of 40-50mph wind gusts around Mobile, AL in some of those heavier TStorms moving southward.

[srainhoutx]

Water Vapor view...

[Dean4Storms]

The NWS in Mobile nailed what we are seeing on radar with the placement of the Low!!

[mvtrucking]

I'm plotting surface pressures down to 1/4 millibar. GFS has it inland near Grand Isle, LA and passing north of Lafayette and well north of Lake Charles. At 84 hrs, it's at 31.4N/94.9W, just west of Lufkin. I guess we could call it east-central TX. Maybe close enough to us to give us some rain. Of course, this assumes a perfect GFS forecast, and the GFS has never been wrong with a tropical system...

Maybe we could end up with a shot of moisture here in north central Louisiana? We could sure use it also.

[vbhoutex]

Based on two different radars it appears to me that there is an elongated llc from Chattahooche to just NW of Panama City, It looks like it is a slow S to SSW drift. This is still going to take a good while to get back over the water and tighten up imo. It is also obvious that there is still a good feed of moisture setting up for this system. My guess is the N GOM is in for one heck of a dousing. The biggest question in my mind, and probably in most peoples minds is how far over the water will this get?
edit- Just saw the NWS graphic. That is spot on for location for sure.

[caneman]

It doesn't appear that it will be much more than a rain maker. Anyone get the feeling that the North Gulf coast is the bullseye this year? We've had some good soakers from a couple of these systems on the West coast of Florida. Not sure about this area but seems to be shaping up as North Gulf coast.

[KWT]

The NWS in Mobile nailed what we are seeing on radar with the placement of the Low!!

Yeah its pretty obvious really where the low is located, the track IMO looks pretty good as well IMO, though I do think it could drop a little further south then that if the low is setting up down there.

[ROCK]

12Z EURO would suggest even more west to mid-Texas coast...if that was the case then it would have plenty of water to get going....I wouldnt discount it WXMN57.....

this whole scenario seems eerily similar to IVAN II....it also hugged the coast a good ways before coming ashore in SWLA....

The Euro has been too far west with almost every storm this year (if not every one). For now, I discount it.

Yeah thats too bad you feel that way. It should have equal if not more weight than the east bias GFS...but we all have our favorites....

[Ikester]

The NWS in Mobile nailed what we are seeing on radar with the placement of the Low!!

Yeah its pretty obvious really where the low is located, the track IMO looks pretty good as well IMO, though I do think it could drop a little further south then that if the low is setting up down there.

Every mile counts thanks to the layout of the gulf coast. With each mile further south, it has that much better of a chance to round Louisiana instead of crashing into it. Though really all bets are on the trough.