ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

First visible image of today.Only a few hours left before it emerges into the water.

[wxman57]

Well, it's definitely not moving west now. Ridge eroded as had been forecast. Though it's still a bit left of the forecast track, it will definitely not be impacted by land by this evening. Euro has the ridge rebuilding to it's north by Tuesday. This should push Alex westward into Mexico.

Yeah the ECM does bring back the ridge, though it should be noted the ECM ensembles are further north as are quite a few other models as well...so I think S.Texas are clearly not out the woods as I'm sure you'd agree.

Anyway its getting within 100 miles of water so won't be long before the feeder bands are out in the BoC again.

Something between Tampico and Brownsville looking the best call right now.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking, south of Brownsville, north of Tampico. It's a question of when the ridge builds back in behind the passing trof and how strong it is. Lower TX coast is definitely not out of the woods. Nor is the upper TX coast, really. Everyone needs to pay attention to Alex. We may not really be sure where Alex will make landfall until late Tuesday or Wednesday when it DOES make the westward turn as the ridge builds in (or not).

[KWT]

Yeah does look like its moved more west in recent hours, as you'd expect thanks to the weakening, looks to be around 18N...I'd feel more confident some of the models that take this to Texas are out to sea if the trend for a left of NHC track carries on for any amount of time, the angle of attack will rapidly increase from this point if its to get to Texas like some of the models expect.

General evolution of the upper pattern probably isn't going to be too different from what we saw with Bret in 1999.

[Ivanhater]

Well, it's definitely not moving west now. Ridge eroded as had been forecast. Though it's still a bit left of the forecast track, it will definitely not be impacted by land by this evening. Euro has the ridge rebuilding to it's north by Tuesday. This should push Alex westward into Mexico.

Yeah the ECM does bring back the ridge, though it should be noted the ECM ensembles are further north as are quite a few other models as well...so I think S.Texas are clearly not out the woods as I'm sure you'd agree.

Anyway its getting within 100 miles of water so won't be long before the feeder bands are out in the BoC again.

Something between Tampico and Brownsville looking the best call right now.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking, south of Brownsville, north of Tampico. It's a question of when the ridge builds back in behind the passing trof and how strong it is. Lower TX coast is definitely not out of the woods. Nor is the upper TX coast, really. Everyone needs to pay attention to Alex. We may not really be sure where Alex will make landfall until late Tuesday or Wednesday when it DOES make the westward turn as the ridge builds in (or not).

Well we do agree then

I'm wondering how the pattern we are seeing now with Alex will correspond to the rest of the season. To early to tell in my book, but as you have said before a very busy season has just started.

I think Alex very may well get to major hurricane status which is insane for June...

[srainhoutx]

We have watched many a storm stall N of Tabasco through the years. My concern is how long this slow down may last. We may see something stronger than some folks have thought.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Emmett_Brown]

On the IR loop, it appeared that the core of Alex tightened up quite a bit last night, reminiscent of Fay from '08. In the last couple of frames, the core looks to be on the verge of collapse to me... land interaction is taking its toll. If the core collapses, I think it may take a while for Alex to regain strength. When I say "a while", I mean about 24-48 hours, so Alex can eventually become a powerful storm assuming he gains enough latitude to stay over water, but I don't think we are going to see rapid intensification at first... just gradual rebuilding for 1-2 days, followed by intensification. Just my opinion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

[KWT]

I think Alex very may well get to major hurricane status which is insane for June...

It gains enough latitude and has enough time over the water then this seems to be quite possible, though I'd personally favour something between 70-80kts, we certainly can't rule out something stronger I have to admit.

[Hurricane Andrew]

We have watched many a storm stall N of Tabasco through the years. My concern is how long this slow down may last. We may see something stronger than some folks have thought.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree

Here comes the cat 5...

[KWT]

On the IR loop, it appeared that the core of Alex tightened up quite a bit last night, reminiscent of Fay from '08. In the last couple of frames, the core looks to be on the verge of collapse to me... land interaction is taking its toll. If the core collapses, I think it may take a while for Alex to regain strength. When I say "a while", I mean about 24-48 hours, so Alex will likely still be a powerful storm assuming he gains enough latitude to stay over water, but I don't think we are going to see rapid intensification at first... just gradual rebuilding for 1-2 days, followed by intensification. Just my opinion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

I do agree but then agian it barely had a core, I mean it may have tried to develop one very briefly overland but more or less it never had an inner core IMO, so may not be much there to rebuild in the first place, I think probably 12-18hrs to sort itself out and then it'll strengthen at a decent clip.

[Ntxwx]

Here comes the cat 5...

It's absolutley possible

[Hurricane Andrew]

Here comes the cat 5...

It's absolutley possible

I was joking. But..if it stalls...

[Ivanhater]

Remember it is nearly already pulling moisture in from the boc before it reaches offshore, indicative of the huge feeder band blowing up to the NE.

[hurricaneCW]

I think everybody is getting ahead of themselves. Plus Alex still has hours of land before it emerges into the BOC and he's quickly deteriorating, the cloud tops rapidly warming and the core may become disrupted soon. I highly doubt Alex ever becomes a major even with the super warm Gulf temperatures especially if the core falls apart.

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[Ivanhater]

I think everybody is getting ahead of themselves. Plus Alex still has hours of land before it emerges into the BOC and he's quickly deteriorating, the cloud tops rapidly warming and the core may become disrupted soon. I highly doubt Alex ever becomes a major even with the super warm Gulf temperatures especially if the core falls apart.

Take a look back. Cuba severely disrupted hurricane Dennis in 2005. Nearly a cat 5 weakened to a cat 1 and a collapsed core. It quickly went back to a category 4. The NHC even mentions this possibility so it is quite possible...

[gatorcane]

When I look at the SAT images I still see a distinctive WNW movement so a ridge is still present over the GOM, albeit is getting pushed eastward by an approaching trough digging into the Central Plains (quite evident on SAT images). Structure still looks great. When it emerges in the BOC the upper-level conditions appear ideal with very warm SSTs. This could certainly be a major hurricane if it can stay over water long enough.

If it does end up getting pulled up more north towards Texas, it will have more time over water and could be quite a large and powerful system. The good thing is that most of the models still show a Mexico landfall and the ECMWF continues to show this, which is important. I think if Alex can deepen more quickly than anticipated, it may be able to feel the weakness further and get pull more north before ridging builds back in to send it west.

[HURAKAN]

Alex enjoys a good challenge

[Emmett_Brown]

Alex is very large. The envelop is really something... there are showers as far north as the N Central GOM at this time, at least distantly related to the circulation. I think his overall size lends credence to the models that show a more poleward motion... assuming he continues to take up so much real estate, his size will help add to the erosion of the ridge.

[HURAKAN]

amazing

[hurricaneCW]

Take a look back. Cuba severely disrupted hurricane Dennis in 2005. Nearly a cat 5 weakened to a cat 1 and a collapsed core. It quickly went back to a category 4. The NHC even mentions this possibility so it is quite possible...[/quote]

Well than there's Ike and Gustav, once they hit Cuba, they both struggled to recover in the Gulf despite ample time to get themselves together. I'm speaking strictly on the storm's strength, not size. I know Ike became a massive hurricane but its major status never returned after landfall. It struggled to get its core back together for days.