ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146028
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2201 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 27, 2010 7:49 am

First visible image of today.Only a few hours left before it emerges into the water.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23006
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2202 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 27, 2010 7:51 am

KWT wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Well, it's definitely not moving west now. Ridge eroded as had been forecast. Though it's still a bit left of the forecast track, it will definitely not be impacted by land by this evening. Euro has the ridge rebuilding to it's north by Tuesday. This should push Alex westward into Mexico.


Yeah the ECM does bring back the ridge, though it should be noted the ECM ensembles are further north as are quite a few other models as well...so I think S.Texas are clearly not out the woods as I'm sure you'd agree.

Anyway its getting within 100 miles of water so won't be long before the feeder bands are out in the BoC again.

Something between Tampico and Brownsville looking the best call right now.


Yeah, that's what I'm thinking, south of Brownsville, north of Tampico. It's a question of when the ridge builds back in behind the passing trof and how strong it is. Lower TX coast is definitely not out of the woods. Nor is the upper TX coast, really. Everyone needs to pay attention to Alex. We may not really be sure where Alex will make landfall until late Tuesday or Wednesday when it DOES make the westward turn as the ridge builds in (or not).
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2203 Postby KWT » Sun Jun 27, 2010 7:52 am

Yeah does look like its moved more west in recent hours, as you'd expect thanks to the weakening, looks to be around 18N...I'd feel more confident some of the models that take this to Texas are out to sea if the trend for a left of NHC track carries on for any amount of time, the angle of attack will rapidly increase from this point if its to get to Texas like some of the models expect.

General evolution of the upper pattern probably isn't going to be too different from what we saw with Bret in 1999.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2204 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 27, 2010 7:56 am

wxman57 wrote:
KWT wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Well, it's definitely not moving west now. Ridge eroded as had been forecast. Though it's still a bit left of the forecast track, it will definitely not be impacted by land by this evening. Euro has the ridge rebuilding to it's north by Tuesday. This should push Alex westward into Mexico.


Yeah the ECM does bring back the ridge, though it should be noted the ECM ensembles are further north as are quite a few other models as well...so I think S.Texas are clearly not out the woods as I'm sure you'd agree.

Anyway its getting within 100 miles of water so won't be long before the feeder bands are out in the BoC again.

Something between Tampico and Brownsville looking the best call right now.


Yeah, that's what I'm thinking, south of Brownsville, north of Tampico. It's a question of when the ridge builds back in behind the passing trof and how strong it is. Lower TX coast is definitely not out of the woods. Nor is the upper TX coast, really. Everyone needs to pay attention to Alex. We may not really be sure where Alex will make landfall until late Tuesday or Wednesday when it DOES make the westward turn as the ridge builds in (or not).


Well we do agree then :P

I'm wondering how the pattern we are seeing now with Alex will correspond to the rest of the season. To early to tell in my book, but as you have said before a very busy season has just started.

I think Alex very may well get to major hurricane status which is insane for June...
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2205 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jun 27, 2010 7:58 am

We have watched many a storm stall N of Tabasco through the years. My concern is how long this slow down may last. We may see something stronger than some folks have thought.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1432
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

#2206 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:00 am

On the IR loop, it appeared that the core of Alex tightened up quite a bit last night, reminiscent of Fay from '08. In the last couple of frames, the core looks to be on the verge of collapse to me... land interaction is taking its toll. If the core collapses, I think it may take a while for Alex to regain strength. When I say "a while", I mean about 24-48 hours, so Alex can eventually become a powerful storm assuming he gains enough latitude to stay over water, but I don't think we are going to see rapid intensification at first... just gradual rebuilding for 1-2 days, followed by intensification. Just my opinion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html
Last edited by Emmett_Brown on Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2207 Postby KWT » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:00 am

Ivanhater wrote: I think Alex very may well get to major hurricane status which is insane for June...


It gains enough latitude and has enough time over the water then this seems to be quite possible, though I'd personally favour something between 70-80kts, we certainly can't rule out something stronger I have to admit.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2208 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:01 am

Ntxwx wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:We have watched many a storm stall N of Tabasco through the years. My concern is how long this slow down may last. We may see something stronger than some folks have thought.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I agree

Here comes the cat 5...
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re:

#2209 Postby KWT » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:03 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:On the IR loop, it appeared that the core of Alex tightened up quite a bit last night, reminiscent of Fay from '08. In the last couple of frames, the core looks to be on the verge of collapse to me... land interaction is taking its toll. If the core collapses, I think it may take a while for Alex to regain strength. When I say "a while", I mean about 24-48 hours, so Alex will likely still be a powerful storm assuming he gains enough latitude to stay over water, but I don't think we are going to see rapid intensification at first... just gradual rebuilding for 1-2 days, followed by intensification. Just my opinion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html


I do agree but then agian it barely had a core, I mean it may have tried to develop one very briefly overland but more or less it never had an inner core IMO, so may not be much there to rebuild in the first place, I think probably 12-18hrs to sort itself out and then it'll strengthen at a decent clip.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Ntxwx
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 153
Joined: Tue Jan 26, 2010 10:43 am
Location: Bridgeport, Texas

Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2210 Postby Ntxwx » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:04 am

Here comes the cat 5...


It's absolutley possible
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2211 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:05 am

Ntxwx wrote:
Here comes the cat 5...


It's absolutley possible

I was joking. But..if it stalls...
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2212 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:05 am

Remember it is nearly already pulling moisture in from the boc before it reaches offshore, indicative of the huge feeder band blowing up to the NE.
0 likes   
Michael

hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2213 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:08 am

I think everybody is getting ahead of themselves. Plus Alex still has hours of land before it emerges into the BOC and he's quickly deteriorating, the cloud tops rapidly warming and the core may become disrupted soon. I highly doubt Alex ever becomes a major even with the super warm Gulf temperatures especially if the core falls apart.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146028
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2214 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:10 am

The latest.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2215 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:11 am

hurricaneCW wrote:I think everybody is getting ahead of themselves. Plus Alex still has hours of land before it emerges into the BOC and he's quickly deteriorating, the cloud tops rapidly warming and the core may become disrupted soon. I highly doubt Alex ever becomes a major even with the super warm Gulf temperatures especially if the core falls apart.


Take a look back. Cuba severely disrupted hurricane Dennis in 2005. Nearly a cat 5 weakened to a cat 1 and a collapsed core. It quickly went back to a category 4. The NHC even mentions this possibility so it is quite possible...
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#2216 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:14 am

When I look at the SAT images I still see a distinctive WNW movement so a ridge is still present over the GOM, albeit is getting pushed eastward by an approaching trough digging into the Central Plains (quite evident on SAT images). Structure still looks great. When it emerges in the BOC the upper-level conditions appear ideal with very warm SSTs. This could certainly be a major hurricane if it can stay over water long enough.

If it does end up getting pulled up more north towards Texas, it will have more time over water and could be quite a large and powerful system. The good thing is that most of the models still show a Mexico landfall and the ECMWF continues to show this, which is important. I think if Alex can deepen more quickly than anticipated, it may be able to feel the weakness further and get pull more north before ridging builds back in to send it west.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#2217 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:14 am

Image

Alex enjoys a good challenge
0 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1432
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

#2218 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:16 am

Alex is very large. The envelop is really something... there are showers as far north as the N Central GOM at this time, at least distantly related to the circulation. I think his overall size lends credence to the models that show a more poleward motion... assuming he continues to take up so much real estate, his size will help add to the erosion of the ridge.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#2219 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:16 am

Image

amazing
0 likes   

hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#2220 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:17 am

Take a look back. Cuba severely disrupted hurricane Dennis in 2005. Nearly a cat 5 weakened to a cat 1 and a collapsed core. It quickly went back to a category 4. The NHC even mentions this possibility so it is quite possible...[/quote]

Well than there's Ike and Gustav, once they hit Cuba, they both struggled to recover in the Gulf despite ample time to get themselves together. I'm speaking strictly on the storm's strength, not size. I know Ike became a massive hurricane but its major status never returned after landfall. It struggled to get its core back together for days.
0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests