ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

When I look at the SAT images I still see a distinctive WNW movement so a ridge is still present over the GOM, albeit is getting pushed eastward by an approaching trough digging into the Central Plains (quite evident on SAT images). Structure still looks great. When it emerges in the BOC the upper-level conditions appear ideal with very warm SSTs. This could certainly be a major hurricane if it can stay over water long enough.

If it does end up getting pulled up more north towards Texas, it will have more time over water and could be quite a large and powerful system. The good thing is that most of the models still show a Mexico landfall and the ECMWF continues to show this, which is important. I think if Alex can deepen more quickly than anticipated, it may be able to feel the weakness further and get pull more north before ridging builds back in to send it west.

It is important to note last night the euro had a huge change. It moved Alex NW deep from the boc to the border which is a stark difference from the previous runs showing a due west heading deep in the boc.

[Emmett_Brown]

When I look at the SAT images I still see a distinctive WNW movement so a ridge is still present over the GOM, albeit is getting pushed eastward by an approaching trough digging into the Central Plains (quite evident on SAT images). Structure still looks great. When it emerges in the BOC the upper-level conditions appear ideal with very warm SSTs. This could certainly be a major hurricane if it can stay over water long enough.

If it does end up getting pulled up more north towards Texas, it will have more time over water and could be quite a large and powerful system. The good thing is that most of the models still show a Mexico landfall and the ECMWF continues to show this, which is important. I think if Alex can deepen more quickly than anticipated, it may be able to feel the weakness further and get pull more north before ridging builds back in to send it west.

It is important to note last night the euro had a huge change. It moved Alex NW deep from the boc to the border which is a stark difference from the previous runs showing a due west heading deep in the boc.

And the trend hasn't stopped... the models have trended to the right gradually for the past 24 hours. It will be interesting if they continue to trend right. There is a lot of time left.

[wx247]

All I know is that I wouldn't want to be a forecaster at the NHC today. This is going to be an important as far as the forecast goes. Adequate lead time is necessary for those who are needing to make preparations in response to the oil spill in the gulf. Track forecasts this time around will be more imperative than usual.

While I am still not completely on board with a US landfall, I will agree that the track has shifted some more toward the north. You can't discount the movement of the models. While the new track coming out in an hour will be interesting, I think the more important tracks will be the ones at 4 and 10 p.m. central time.

As always, this is just my $.04 worth...

[Hurricane Andrew]

All I know is that I wouldn't want to be a forecaster at the NHC today. This is going to be an important as far as the forecast goes. Adequate lead time is necessary for those who are needing to make preparations in response to the oil spill in the gulf. Track forecasts this time around will be more imperative than usual.

While I am still not completely on board with a US landfall, I will agree that the track has shifted some more toward the north. You can't discount the movement of the models. While the new track coming out in an hour will be interesting, I think the more important tracks will be the ones at 4 and 10 p.m. central time.

As always, this is just my $.04 worth...

I really agree with you on that. If this storm were to hit the oil spill area.....

[tailgater]

Alex is very large. The envelop is really something... there are showers as far north as the N Central GOM at this time, at least distantly related to the circulation. I think his overall size lends credence to the models that show a more poleward motion... assuming he continues to take up so much real estate, his size will help add to the erosion of the ridge.

Nice to see you back EB,
Looking like a due west movement in last couple hrs. 94L could aslo be a player in the ridges erosion. but hope it"ll just continue on this westerly course.

[Hurricane Andrew]

If the storm were to stall say...100 miles off shore..would it weaken or strengthen? I need to know so i can do my forecast. I heard someone saying it might stall so...

Thanks in Advance.

[Ntxwx]

Looked amazing an hour or 2 ago, with a well defined center, strong banding convection blowing up around both sides. But has weakened considerably within the last hour in all ways.. But the last frame shows it being about an hour away from hostile waters. It way take 6-12 hours just to develop it's structure again, but after that we can probably expect some impressive bombing. Alex has some major potential in the BOC/GOM.

[KWT]

Yeah it really hasn't lfited up much in the last few hours probably simply because the system weakened, I do wonder once it starts to beef itself up over water it'll tap into the weakness a little further like it had done in the period where it tightened up overland...

Going to be a very important 24hrs for knowing what Alex does, I think C/N Mexico has to be the most likely call for now but further adjustments are always possible.

[mpic]

We could certainly use some rain off this system in the Houston area, but what bothers me is that Ike was forecast to hit the TX/Mex border early on, too. Hopefully, it won't come this far east and minimize the chances of more damage to wells.

[ROCK]

EB, back from hibernation! I remember you back in the old days....

Alex is about half way across....I have no doubt it will get back together once splash down...

[wxman57]

Note that on the marine advisories, Alex's radius of 39 mph winds is only forecast to be 90 nm (105 miles) on the latest advisory. That's fairly average as far as size goes. In contrast, Ike's radius of 39 mph winds was up to 240 nm (276 miles) prior to landfall. So Alex is average to a little below average as far as its PREDICTED size by the NHC. It does appear that Alex is contracting. The circulation envelope isn't as large as yesterday or the day before. Typical of a developing system. That said, it's possible that Alex's wind field could be larger than is currently forecast. I was forecasting about 110 nm for the 39 mph wind field by Tuesday afternoon. That's still about average, though.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looked amazing an hour or 2 ago, with a well defined center, strong banding convection blowing up around both sides. But has weakened considerably within the last hour in all ways.. But the last frame shows it being about an hour away from hostile waters. It way take 6-12 hours just to develop it's structure again, but after that we can probably expect some impressive bombing. Alex has some major potential in the BOC/GOM.

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I totally agree with you. I think it will emerge as a Deppression...Then become a TS when Recon goes in. Then i think it Bombs Away!

Why?
Shear-LOW
SST's-WARM(90 Degrees F +)
Land-NONE
Time over water-2-4 days+

[Hurricane Andrew]

Note that on the marine advisories, Alex's radius of 39 mph winds is only forecast to be 90 nm (105 miles) on the latest advisory. That's fairly average as far as size goes. In contrast, Ike's radius of 39 mph winds was up to 240 nm (276 miles) prior to landfall. So Alex is average to a little below average as far as its PREDICTED size by the NHC. It does appear that Alex is contracting. The circulation envelope isn't as large as yesterday or the day before. Typical of a developing system. That said, it's possible that Alex's wind field could be larger than is currently forecast. I was forecasting about 110 nm for the 39 mph wind field by Tuesday afternoon. That's still about average, though.

Ike was a 110MPH hurricane. Alex is a 40MPH TS.

And then there was Marco..10 Mile wind radius. LOL.

I was looking at an IR loop, and it looked like the Deep COnvection over the center had warmed about 5-10 Degrees C.

[hurricaneCW]

Last few images show the core falling apart, if it does get its act together, I'm thinking no higher than a strong category 1 (95mph).

[HURAKAN]

A few hours from the coast

[artist]

now, see, to these untrained eyes I see the center core remaining strong. What am I missing?

[bob rulz]

Everyone who says it won't have time to get its act together has a pretty short memory. History is riddled with examples of hurricanes that crossed the Yucatan, fell apart, and re-organized to attain nearly their previous intensity, sometimes cat 3 or even 4.

Also, don't forget Audrey in 1957 - it formed in the southern Gulf and was a category 4 at landfall in Texas. This was in late June, not August or September.

[Cape Verde]

The morning discussion certainly got my attention. My speculation yesterday that Texas was not out of the woods was not well-received, and that is fine. I am not qualified to even suggest I can make a personal forecast.

But what a difference 24 hours makes. I still hope it makes final landfall south of Brownsville. But if the guys at the NHC are discussing a theoretically possible landfall as a very strong hurricane along the Texas/Louisiana border, then I suddenly have a very personal interest in this storm, and increased concern for BP Macondo oil leak activities.

I think we'll have a much better idea when the center crosses into the BOC.

[bob rulz]

now, see, to these untrained eyes I see the center core remaining strong. What am I missing?

You have to look at the IR - the cloud tops have warmed considerably and the center is not as definite as it was a few hours ago.

[Sanibel]

Storm appears to be emerging on the Mexico track. Wish I was in Tampico right now. Cyclones can be finnicky about reorganizing once they emerge in the Bay Of Campeche. We'll see how this favorable overhead and SST's play out.


The lower part of the western trough appears to be flattening west-east while the northern part plunges.