ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[xcool22]

nnw just little east not much...imo..

[Texashawk]

According to my rough trig, and the vortex message fixes, it's moving in roughly a 335-340 degree direction since around 8 PM CDT.

[mvtrucking]

According to my rough trig, and the vortex message fixes, it's moving in roughly a 335-340 degree direction since around 8 PM CDT.

Wonder where that make it in relation to the 8pm NHC track? You would think it would have to be off somewhat?

[Texashawk]

According to my rough trig, and the vortex message fixes, it's moving in roughly a 335-340 degree direction since around 8 PM CDT.

Wonder where that make it in relation to the 8pm NHC track? You would think it would have to be off somewhat?

Oh, it is... about 40 miles to the east of the NHC track so far... and widening.

[TwisterFanatic]

Its really that far off?

[xcool22]

wow far off

[Texashawk]

Its really that far off?

Seems to be. I plotted the vortex coordinates against the NHC forecast coordinates on Google Earth and used a digital scale to measure the variance. It's actually about 42.2 miles, if you want to be picky.

[dhweather]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290839
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.9W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

[jlauderdal]

Its really that far off?

Seems to be. I plotted the vortex coordinates against the NHC forecast coordinates on Google Earth and used a digital scale to measure the variance. It's actually about 42.2 miles, if you want to be picky.

good calculations, alex wants to keep heading north but will lose that battle shortly according to nhc, hurricanes take the path of least resistence, kind of like me

[tailgater]

Pressures up @1mb along the northern GOM from brownsville to Tampa, might move a little farther north but not much before it stalls or moves west.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

TwisterFanatic wrote:
Its really that far off?


Seems to be. I plotted the vortex coordinates against the NHC forecast coordinates on Google Earth and used a digital scale to measure the variance. It's actually about 42.2 miles, if you want to be picky.

Recall that longitudinal lines are not parallel.

[HURAKAN]

RECON descending into operational altitude

[Nimbus]

Guess we wait for the ridge to build back in. There is a large upper low dropping down from Canada into the great lakes region. Also that Buzz saw ULL approaching Florida. I was thinking if Alex really started winding up, he might pump up a ridge centered over the gulf. No model support for that yet though. Hopefully we will get more than just a thin ridge over the gulf coast. Its going to have to start building up soon or Alex is not going in south of the border.

[JtSmarts]

RECON descending into operational altitude

I wonder if they'll find a hurricane this time.

[Ikester]

It's a very rough looking storm if you ask me.

[KWT]

Well we are now upto 60kts so we are getting very close now to a hurricane.

System still moving NNW more or less, I'd expect it to steadily curve round to the NW and then WNW possibly just a little to the north of the offical forecast which would quite possibly make it a US storm...

[HURAKAN]

RECON descending into operational altitude

I wonder if they'll find a hurricane this time.

I think it´s possible

[HURAKAN]

The RECON knows something could be up when they're staying at 842 mb, not descending to 924 mb like previous missions

[mpic]

While it's a little slow, I have a question. Someone said before, I think, that Fla and La are experiencing some storms that are due to this storm. If that is the case, why aren't we getting anything here in Houston? Latitude?

[cwachal]

more 50 knt flight level winds ... still not anywhere near the center... I think we will see a 80 mph hurricane with pressure around 978