ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Vortex]

6Z Nogaps turns NE towards western Cuba and then possible FL



6Z Loop:


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Blown Away]

Let's see if the man JB nails this one...night all!!!

What did JB say that is any different from what we all see?

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

864
WHXX01 KWBC 220706
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0706 UTC WED SEP 22 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100922 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100922  0600   100922  1800   100923  0600   100923  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.5N  67.5W   12.9N  70.0W   13.2N  72.6W   13.7N  75.2W
BAMD    12.5N  67.5W   12.6N  69.8W   12.5N  72.2W   12.4N  74.6W
BAMM    12.5N  67.5W   12.8N  69.8W   12.9N  72.1W   13.1N  74.6W
LBAR    12.5N  67.5W   13.0N  70.3W   13.5N  73.4W   14.0N  76.6W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          35KTS          48KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          35KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100924  0600   100925  0600   100926  0600   100927  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.0N  77.6W   14.7N  82.4W   15.9N  86.4W   16.8N  88.4W
BAMD    12.4N  77.0W   12.9N  81.4W   14.7N  85.1W   16.6N  87.6W
BAMM    13.4N  77.1W   14.1N  81.8W   15.5N  86.3W   16.6N  88.8W
LBAR    14.7N  79.9W   16.1N  86.3W   15.7N  86.8W   16.8N  89.1W
SHIP        63KTS          89KTS         106KTS         115KTS
DSHP        63KTS          89KTS          43KTS          40KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.5N LONCUR =  67.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  12.2N LONM12 =  64.0W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  12.1N LONM24 =  61.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  170NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[HURAKAN]

[Vortex]

HWRF much stronger..near western Cuba 6Z


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[MortisFL]

06z GFDL stuck over Central America

[Blown Away]

I zoomed in a bit, looks like most of the models skirt over Honduras and keep 95L over water in the NW Caribbean. I have a feeling this will be one of those nail bitters watching the LLC hug the coast.

[Vortex]

I zoomed in a bit, looks like most of the models skirt over Honduras and keep 95L over water in the NW Caribbean. I have a feeling this will be one of those nail bitters watching the LLC hug the coast.

I agree, and a brush or landfall over NE Nicaragua would only put the circulation over land for maybe 8-12 hours then most likely remain over water...The potential is certainly there to have a major if it doesnt bury itself over CA...Possible but I think the lessor likely of the 2 scenarios.

[Lifesgud2]

Looks very similiar to what Wilma did. Correct me if I am wrong..Hope it goes west. and keeps going west..

[KWT]

Thats a real tight call, the difference between the two possible outcomes is pretty large and thus makes it really difficult to make a forecast based from the models beyond a few days.

[GCANE]

A quick spin-up and a hair to the north could pretty much keep it over water.

[Blown Away]

How much merit can be placed on those GFS ensembles sprayed all over Florida when most of the models move into the Gulf of Honduras and stall/loop around?

[lonelymike]

Euro also agrees with the GFS (I can't believe I just said that ) so its plausible.

[caneseddy]

One thing that has me concerned here in S. Florida is that other than some weird runs yesterday from the GFS (which for 2 or 3 runs had a sheared system moving NE over the Bahamas and not hitting the US) this model has consistently since late last week been hinting at a Florida hit ala Wilma or Charley

Now that the Euro is seeming to align with the GFS on a Florida hit, my alert level has gone up a notch

[Portastorm]

With regards to the developing synoptic situation on 95L, I understand that the modeling is converging on the development of a significant trough in the eastern US and that this (or one of the short waves traversing the trough) will pick up 95L/Matthew at some point. No arguments here. But am I the only one who finds it odd that the GFS is developing a cut-off low in the South? Don't these usually happen during the winter months and usually in the Southwest US?

The only other time I can recall seeing a cut-off, upper level low over the Deep South is if we're dealing with a TUTT low and that is not what the GFS is suggesting.

It just seems wrong to me. Then again, I'm no meteorologist ... just a weather weenie.

[caneseddy]

With regards to the developing synoptic situation on 95L, I understand that the modeling is converging on the development of a significant trough in the eastern US and that this (or one of the short waves traversing the trough) will pick up 95L/Matthew at some point. No arguments here. But am I the only one who finds it odd that the GFS is developing a cut-off low in the South? Don't these usually happen during the winter months and usually in the Southwest US?

The only other time I can recall seeing a cut-off, upper level low over the Deep South is if we're dealing with a TUTT low and that is not what the GFS is suggesting.

It just seems wrong to me. Then again, I'm no meteorologist ... just a weather weenie.

Normally, I would agree with you, but in this case it's not the GFS, but the Euro and Canadian are showing the cut-off low over the South; the only problem is the speed of the cut-off low and how quickly it lifts out

And if it's true that it's going to be in the 40s in Oklahoma and in the 60s in SE Texas, as some posters were mentioning, then it could be plausible the front could dig all the way as the GFS has been hinting at

Like you, I'm not a meteorologist, just a weenie

[Dean4Storms]

With regards to the developing synoptic situation on 95L, I understand that the modeling is converging on the development of a significant trough in the eastern US and that this (or one of the short waves traversing the trough) will pick up 95L/Matthew at some point. No arguments here. But am I the only one who finds it odd that the GFS is developing a cut-off low in the South? Don't these usually happen during the winter months and usually in the Southwest US?

The only other time I can recall seeing a cut-off, upper level low over the Deep South is if we're dealing with a TUTT low and that is not what the GFS is suggesting.

It just seems wrong to me. Then again, I'm no meteorologist ... just a weather weenie.

Normally, I would agree with you, but in this case it's not the GFS, but the Euro and Canadian are showing the cut-off low over the South; the only problem is the speed of the cut-off low and how quickly it lifts out

And if it's true that it's going to be in the 40s in Oklahoma and in the 60s in SE Texas, as some posters were mentioning, then it could be plausible the front could dig all the way as the GFS has been hinting at

Like you, I'm not a meteorologist, just a weenie

I wouldn't call it the deep south. The 06z GFS gets the UL cut off low down to about Memphis which in my opinion is not the deep south, more like the mid-south and then eventually lifts it toward the NNE. It does however dig the UL trough deep into the Gulf.

I don't see that much in the way of cold air, cool and dry would be more like it.

[caneseddy]

12Z NAM looks like it has it hitting Belize and then exiting again into the Gulf of Honduras; however, keeps it weak

Check out the loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[GCANE]

Looks like an Omega-Block will be setup over the weekend.

[ROCK]

With regards to the developing synoptic situation on 95L, I understand that the modeling is converging on the development of a significant trough in the eastern US and that this (or one of the short waves traversing the trough) will pick up 95L/Matthew at some point. No arguments here. But am I the only one who finds it odd that the GFS is developing a cut-off low in the South? Don't these usually happen during the winter months and usually in the Southwest US?

The only other time I can recall seeing a cut-off, upper level low over the Deep South is if we're dealing with a TUTT low and that is not what the GFS is suggesting.

It just seems wrong to me. Then again, I'm no meteorologist ... just a weather weenie.

Normally, I would agree with you, but in this case it's not the GFS, but the Euro and Canadian are showing the cut-off low over the South; the only problem is the speed of the cut-off low and how quickly it lifts out

And if it's true that it's going to be in the 40s in Oklahoma and in the 60s in SE Texas, as some posters were mentioning, then it could be plausible the front could dig all the way as the GFS has been hinting at

Like you, I'm not a meteorologist, just a weenie

I wouldn't call it the deep south. The 06z GFS gets the UL cut off low down to about Memphis which in my opinion is not the deep south, more like the mid-south and then eventually lifts it toward the NNE. It does however dig the UL trough deep into the Gulf.

I don't see that much in the way of cold air, cool and dry would be more like it.

Digs the UL trof through the GOM, Yucatan, into CA, all of FL and half of Cuba...in Sept....