ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
6Z Nogaps turns NE towards western Cuba and then possible FL
6Z Loop:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
6Z Loop:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Wx_Warrior wrote:Let's see if the man JB nails this one...night all!!!
What did JB say that is any different from what we all see?
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Code: Select all
864
WHXX01 KWBC 220706
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0706 UTC WED SEP 22 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100922 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100922 0600 100922 1800 100923 0600 100923 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 67.5W 12.9N 70.0W 13.2N 72.6W 13.7N 75.2W
BAMD 12.5N 67.5W 12.6N 69.8W 12.5N 72.2W 12.4N 74.6W
BAMM 12.5N 67.5W 12.8N 69.8W 12.9N 72.1W 13.1N 74.6W
LBAR 12.5N 67.5W 13.0N 70.3W 13.5N 73.4W 14.0N 76.6W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS 48KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100924 0600 100925 0600 100926 0600 100927 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 77.6W 14.7N 82.4W 15.9N 86.4W 16.8N 88.4W
BAMD 12.4N 77.0W 12.9N 81.4W 14.7N 85.1W 16.6N 87.6W
BAMM 13.4N 77.1W 14.1N 81.8W 15.5N 86.3W 16.6N 88.8W
LBAR 14.7N 79.9W 16.1N 86.3W 15.7N 86.8W 16.8N 89.1W
SHIP 63KTS 89KTS 106KTS 115KTS
DSHP 63KTS 89KTS 43KTS 40KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 67.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 64.0W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 61.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

I zoomed in a bit, looks like most of the models skirt over Honduras and keep 95L over water in the NW Caribbean. I have a feeling this will be one of those nail bitters watching the LLC hug the coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Blown Away wrote:
I zoomed in a bit, looks like most of the models skirt over Honduras and keep 95L over water in the NW Caribbean. I have a feeling this will be one of those nail bitters watching the LLC hug the coast.
I agree, and a brush or landfall over NE Nicaragua would only put the circulation over land for maybe 8-12 hours then most likely remain over water...The potential is certainly there to have a major if it doesnt bury itself over CA...Possible but I think the lessor likely of the 2 scenarios.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Looks very similiar to what Wilma did. Correct me if I am wrong..Hope it goes west. and keeps going west..
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Thats a real tight call, the difference between the two possible outcomes is pretty large and thus makes it really difficult to make a forecast based from the models beyond a few days.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
A quick spin-up and a hair to the north could pretty much keep it over water.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
How much merit can be placed on those GFS ensembles sprayed all over Florida when most of the models move into the Gulf of Honduras and stall/loop around?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models


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GO SEMINOLES
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
One thing that has me concerned here in S. Florida is that other than some weird runs yesterday from the GFS (which for 2 or 3 runs had a sheared system moving NE over the Bahamas and not hitting the US) this model has consistently since late last week been hinting at a Florida hit ala Wilma or Charley
Now that the Euro is seeming to align with the GFS on a Florida hit, my alert level has gone up a notch
Now that the Euro is seeming to align with the GFS on a Florida hit, my alert level has gone up a notch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
With regards to the developing synoptic situation on 95L, I understand that the modeling is converging on the development of a significant trough in the eastern US and that this (or one of the short waves traversing the trough) will pick up 95L/Matthew at some point. No arguments here. But am I the only one who finds it odd that the GFS is developing a cut-off low in the South? Don't these usually happen during the winter months and usually in the Southwest US?
The only other time I can recall seeing a cut-off, upper level low over the Deep South is if we're dealing with a TUTT low and that is not what the GFS is suggesting.
It just seems wrong to me. Then again, I'm no meteorologist ... just a weather weenie.
The only other time I can recall seeing a cut-off, upper level low over the Deep South is if we're dealing with a TUTT low and that is not what the GFS is suggesting.
It just seems wrong to me. Then again, I'm no meteorologist ... just a weather weenie.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Portastorm wrote:With regards to the developing synoptic situation on 95L, I understand that the modeling is converging on the development of a significant trough in the eastern US and that this (or one of the short waves traversing the trough) will pick up 95L/Matthew at some point. No arguments here. But am I the only one who finds it odd that the GFS is developing a cut-off low in the South? Don't these usually happen during the winter months and usually in the Southwest US?
The only other time I can recall seeing a cut-off, upper level low over the Deep South is if we're dealing with a TUTT low and that is not what the GFS is suggesting.
It just seems wrong to me. Then again, I'm no meteorologist ... just a weather weenie.
Normally, I would agree with you, but in this case it's not the GFS, but the Euro and Canadian are showing the cut-off low over the South; the only problem is the speed of the cut-off low and how quickly it lifts out
And if it's true that it's going to be in the 40s in Oklahoma and in the 60s in SE Texas, as some posters were mentioning, then it could be plausible the front could dig all the way as the GFS has been hinting at
Like you, I'm not a meteorologist, just a weenie

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
caneseddy wrote:Portastorm wrote:With regards to the developing synoptic situation on 95L, I understand that the modeling is converging on the development of a significant trough in the eastern US and that this (or one of the short waves traversing the trough) will pick up 95L/Matthew at some point. No arguments here. But am I the only one who finds it odd that the GFS is developing a cut-off low in the South? Don't these usually happen during the winter months and usually in the Southwest US?
The only other time I can recall seeing a cut-off, upper level low over the Deep South is if we're dealing with a TUTT low and that is not what the GFS is suggesting.
It just seems wrong to me. Then again, I'm no meteorologist ... just a weather weenie.
Normally, I would agree with you, but in this case it's not the GFS, but the Euro and Canadian are showing the cut-off low over the South; the only problem is the speed of the cut-off low and how quickly it lifts out
And if it's true that it's going to be in the 40s in Oklahoma and in the 60s in SE Texas, as some posters were mentioning, then it could be plausible the front could dig all the way as the GFS has been hinting at
Like you, I'm not a meteorologist, just a weenie
I wouldn't call it the deep south. The 06z GFS gets the UL cut off low down to about Memphis which in my opinion is not the deep south, more like the mid-south and then eventually lifts it toward the NNE. It does however dig the UL trough deep into the Gulf.
I don't see that much in the way of cold air, cool and dry would be more like it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
12Z NAM looks like it has it hitting Belize and then exiting again into the Gulf of Honduras; however, keeps it weak
Check out the loop
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Check out the loop
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Dean4Storms wrote:caneseddy wrote:Portastorm wrote:With regards to the developing synoptic situation on 95L, I understand that the modeling is converging on the development of a significant trough in the eastern US and that this (or one of the short waves traversing the trough) will pick up 95L/Matthew at some point. No arguments here. But am I the only one who finds it odd that the GFS is developing a cut-off low in the South? Don't these usually happen during the winter months and usually in the Southwest US?
The only other time I can recall seeing a cut-off, upper level low over the Deep South is if we're dealing with a TUTT low and that is not what the GFS is suggesting.
It just seems wrong to me. Then again, I'm no meteorologist ... just a weather weenie.
Normally, I would agree with you, but in this case it's not the GFS, but the Euro and Canadian are showing the cut-off low over the South; the only problem is the speed of the cut-off low and how quickly it lifts out
And if it's true that it's going to be in the 40s in Oklahoma and in the 60s in SE Texas, as some posters were mentioning, then it could be plausible the front could dig all the way as the GFS has been hinting at
Like you, I'm not a meteorologist, just a weenie
I wouldn't call it the deep south. The 06z GFS gets the UL cut off low down to about Memphis which in my opinion is not the deep south, more like the mid-south and then eventually lifts it toward the NNE. It does however dig the UL trough deep into the Gulf.
I don't see that much in the way of cold air, cool and dry would be more like it.
Digs the UL trof through the GOM, Yucatan, into CA, all of FL and half of Cuba...in Sept....

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