ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION

[Macrocane]

This caught me by surprise, sure it looks kind of good but I dodn't expect it to be an invest, I know invest doesn't always mean suspect for development but I didn't see this coming, I agree that if we had Bonnie and Colin from 97L and 98L the discussions about cutting numbers will come to an end. My guess is 20% chance of development.

[MGC]

This looks to be a GOM season. I think 98L will run out of water before it can get named.......MGC

[xcool22]

home brew 2010

[chzzdekr81]

We would be close to catching up with 2008. Dolly formed around this time.

[Ivanhater]

30 Percent Code Orange


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[clfenwi]

Given the Katrina reminiscing we were going in the 97L thread, it would be awfully funny to have a "Jose" to go with it.

We had quikscat and recon to help with that classification. Alas, not so much, this time.

[Cryomaniac]

If we get Bonnie and Colin before July is out that would be 3 named storms by the end of July, that would really hush the slow season talk down. Add on top of that TD2 and 95L which was suspect, that is quite a turn around!

I'm waiting to be silenced. I just don't see an apocalyptic season ahead.

"And I heard, as it were, the noise of thunder..." lol.

[thetruesms]

It's so broad, and it's got so little room.

Can't deny that it's got a lot of things going for it, but time is not really one of those things. I think I'd be surprised if it wrapped itself up quickly enough, but I wouldn't be overly shocked. My gut says no - I just ate dinner, so hopefully it's not hungry for some crow a la mode.

[RL3AO]

My guess is we will have another system with a lot of people yelling at the NHC for not upgrading it, like the GOM system a while ago.

[wxman57]

Definitely a better upper air pattern than 97L. Hard to believe 97L has a better chance of developing within 48hrs. This system may be over water for 24-36 hours. Plenty of time to become a 50-60 kt TS. I'd go maybe 60-70% on it developing into a TS before it moves inland south of Tampico tomorrow night or Friday morning.

[RL3AO]

Definitely a better upper air pattern than 97L. Hard to believe 97L has a better chance of developing within 48hrs. This system may be over water for 24-36 hours. Plenty of time to become a 50-60 kt TS. I'd go maybe 60-70% on it developing into a TS before it moves inland south of Tampico tomorrow night or Friday morning.

Its really broad. Do you think it will be able to compact its self quickly enough?

[Ivanhater]

Looks like this is Bonnie after all..Props to the GFS for seeing this 12 days ago!

[lrak]

I hope its just a peaceful wave machine

[gatorcane]

another system into Mexico it seems, so far a magnet for systems. Clearly the upper-level environment is much more favorable where 98L is than 97L.

[lrak]

Man I can walk faster than this thing, its a go for Bonnie, takers?

[lester]

Man I can walk faster than this thing, its a go for Bonnie, takers?

or Colin if 97L develops first

[Ptarmigan]

It would be funny if it was Bonnie and Clyde. I know its Bonnie and Colin.

[thetruesms]

Man I can walk faster than this thing, its a go for Bonnie, takers?

or Colin if 97L develops first

If this one's going to make a run for a name, it will beat 97L in my mind.

[KWT]

Definitely a better upper air pattern than 97L. Hard to believe 97L has a better chance of developing within 48hrs. This system may be over water for 24-36 hours. Plenty of time to become a 50-60 kt TS. I'd go maybe 60-70% on it developing into a TS before it moves inland south of Tampico tomorrow night or Friday morning.

Without a doubt BUT it is a large wave with a huge gyre...its just like a WPAC system and they tend to take 36-48hrs from this stage to make it though when they do they tend to go up quickly. Therefore it could be 50-50 as to whether it gets there in time IMO.

I do however see no reason why we can't get a TD/TS out of it, we've seen plenty of systems in this position get going.

[Annie Oakley]

I hope it stays very south of the Rio Grande River area-they are pretty saturated already. Keeping a close eye out for this one.