
ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION

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- MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
This looks to be a GOM season. I think 98L will run out of water before it can get named.......MGC
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- chzzdekr81
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
30 Percent Code Orange
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 212331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 212331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Michael
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
Given the Katrina reminiscing we were going in the 97L thread, it would be awfully funny to have a "Jose" to go with it.
We had quikscat and recon to help with that classification. Alas, not so much, this time.
We had quikscat and recon to help with that classification. Alas, not so much, this time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
Ikester wrote:Ivanhater wrote:If we get Bonnie and Colin before July is out that would be 3 named storms by the end of July, that would really hush the slow season talk down. Add on top of that TD2 and 95L which was suspect, that is quite a turn around!
I'm waiting to be silenced. I just don't see an apocalyptic season ahead.
"And I heard, as it were, the noise of thunder..." lol.
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- thetruesms
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It's so broad, and it's got so little room.
Can't deny that it's got a lot of things going for it, but time is not really one of those things. I think I'd be surprised if it wrapped itself up quickly enough, but I wouldn't be overly shocked. My gut says no - I just ate dinner, so hopefully it's not hungry for some crow a la mode.

Can't deny that it's got a lot of things going for it, but time is not really one of those things. I think I'd be surprised if it wrapped itself up quickly enough, but I wouldn't be overly shocked. My gut says no - I just ate dinner, so hopefully it's not hungry for some crow a la mode.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
Definitely a better upper air pattern than 97L. Hard to believe 97L has a better chance of developing within 48hrs. This system may be over water for 24-36 hours. Plenty of time to become a 50-60 kt TS. I'd go maybe 60-70% on it developing into a TS before it moves inland south of Tampico tomorrow night or Friday morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
wxman57 wrote:Definitely a better upper air pattern than 97L. Hard to believe 97L has a better chance of developing within 48hrs. This system may be over water for 24-36 hours. Plenty of time to become a 50-60 kt TS. I'd go maybe 60-70% on it developing into a TS before it moves inland south of Tampico tomorrow night or Friday morning.
Its really broad. Do you think it will be able to compact its self quickly enough?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
Looks like this is Bonnie after all..Props to the GFS for seeing this 12 days ago!
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Michael
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
I hope its just a peaceful wave machine 

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AKA karl
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Also
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My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
Man I can walk faster than this thing, its a go for Bonnie, takers?
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AKA karl
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My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Also
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My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
lrak wrote:Man I can walk faster than this thing, its a go for Bonnie, takers?
or Colin if 97L develops first

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
It would be funny if it was Bonnie and Clyde.
I know its Bonnie and Colin.

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- thetruesms
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
If this one's going to make a run for a name, it will beat 97L in my mind.lester88 wrote:lrak wrote:Man I can walk faster than this thing, its a go for Bonnie, takers?
or Colin if 97L develops first
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
wxman57 wrote:Definitely a better upper air pattern than 97L. Hard to believe 97L has a better chance of developing within 48hrs. This system may be over water for 24-36 hours. Plenty of time to become a 50-60 kt TS. I'd go maybe 60-70% on it developing into a TS before it moves inland south of Tampico tomorrow night or Friday morning.
Without a doubt BUT it is a large wave with a huge gyre...its just like a WPAC system and they tend to take 36-48hrs from this stage to make it though when they do they tend to go up quickly. Therefore it could be 50-50 as to whether it gets there in time IMO.
I do however see no reason why we can't get a TD/TS out of it, we've seen plenty of systems in this position get going.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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