ATL: RICHARD - Models

[wxman57]

There really isn't THAT much model spread today. That is, if you eliminate the "garbage" such as LBAR, Clipper and the BAM runs. Models are in good agreement on a slow north drift for 24-36 hours with the weakness to its north. But after then, the door shuts and high pressure starts building across the Gulf. First this will cause the disturbance/storm to stall. Then it should start moving southeast and southward for a short while, followed by south and southwest movement on Friday/Saturday. That should take it inland into Central America over the weekend.

I plotted the latest GFS predictions of the 700-400mb (10,000-20,000ft) steering flow projections with my estimate of the low center for today through Saturday below:

[Vortex]

wxman57, would you say this is a done deal as far as any potential threat to the US given the pattern the next 5-7 days?

[ronjon]

Where are the 06z HWRF and GFDL models?

[SouthDadeFish]

The GFDL has quite a different track than what the GFS is forecasting. I wouldn't be so sure it moves inland into CA. Even if it stays just offshore, that would make a huge difference.

[caneseddy]

The GFDL has quite a different track than what the GFS is forecasting. I wouldn't be so sure it moves inland into CA. Even if it stays just offshore, that would make a huge difference.

I checked the HWRF model website and apparently there is not an 06Z run and neither was an 06Z run done from GFDL

The last runs of HWRF and GFDL (run at 00z) have 99L both looping around in the Caribbean and never interacting with land; the HWRF has it moving it toward Belize as a major hurricane (like Hattie from 1961) and GFDL further north just south of Cozumel

Here is the track for Hurricane Hattie from 1961

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hattie_1961_track.png

00z HWRF run: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt ... hwrf_n.cgi

00z GFDL run: http://tc.met.psu.edu/

[SouthDadeFish]

I wonder why they didn't run the 6Z ones. But yes, I was referring to the 00Z runs when I described the GFDL.

[caneseddy]

12z early runs

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_99.gif

[Blown Away]

wxman57, would you say this is a done deal as far as any potential threat to the US given the pattern the next 5-7 days?

At this point it seems a CONUS threat may have to wait until next year.

[wxman57]

wxman57, would you say this is a done deal as far as any potential threat to the US given the pattern the next 5-7 days?

I don't think your chances of being hit by "Richard" are zero, but I think they're under 5% and maybe under 2%. The storm would have to stall in the NW Caribbean for quite a while (over a week) before it might get a chance to track toward south Florida. That would seem unlikely.

As for the rest of the season, you're not out of the woods yet in south Florida by any means.

[caneseddy]

12z NAM run has 99L becoming a hurricane, doing the loop and impacting Nicaragua/Honduras

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[caneseddy]

12z GFS has 99L making a loop and impacting Nicaragua in about 96 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[ronjon]

12z GFDL - 953 mb and 115 mph winds heading N-NW toward the GOM over western Cuba in 5 days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010101912-invest99l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[cycloneye]

12z CMC develops it and moves it towards Yucatan and later goes to BOC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ronjon]

12z HWRF develops a hurricane that moves into northern Belize.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010101912-invest99l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[caneseddy]

12z GFDL - 953 mb and 115 mph winds heading N-NW toward the GOM over western Cuba in 5 days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010101912-invest99l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Shuft north from the last run which had 99L just off the coast of YP south of Cozumel after doing a loop..no loop on this run

[caneseddy]

12z CMC develops it and moves it towards Yucatan and later goes to BOC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

And look what it develops at the end of the run down in the Caribbean..looks like its the disturbance currently in the E. Atlantic which the NHC had at 20% last night

[caneseddy]

One thing I noticed is the trend with these models further north with the exception of the GFS and NAM which keep it around Honduras/Nicaragua

1. The 00z GFDL run had 99L making a loop and off the coast of YP south of Cozumel as a major while the 12z run now keeps the storm further north parallelling the south coast of Cuba almost to the Yucatan Channel (kind of similar to the GFS runs from last week showing a hurricane coming impacting South Florida)

2. The 00Z HWRF had the storm making a loop as well and impacting southern Belize as a major; the 12z run also does a loop but now has a major hurricane impacting northern Belize/southern Yucatan Peninsula as a major

3. The 12Z CMC has the storm crossing the YP into the BOC

[cycloneye]

SHIP is much more stronger than anytime before.

Code: Select all

369
WHXX01 KWBC 191903
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1903 UTC TUE OCT 19 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20101019 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101019  1800   101020  0600   101020  1800   101021  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.0N  83.0W   18.1N  83.2W   18.8N  83.0W   18.8N  82.9W
BAMD    17.0N  83.0W   18.6N  82.6W   20.1N  81.3W   21.5N  79.3W
BAMM    17.0N  83.0W   18.0N  82.8W   18.5N  82.8W   18.5N  82.5W
LBAR    17.0N  83.0W   18.4N  82.6W   20.0N  82.0W   21.6N  81.2W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          39KTS          42KTS
DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          39KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101021  1800   101022  1800   101023  1800   101024  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.3N  83.1W   16.9N  84.6W   16.1N  88.6W   16.6N  93.1W
BAMD    23.3N  76.2W   28.7N  65.1W   34.5N  49.5W   41.3N  37.1W
BAMM    18.1N  82.6W   16.9N  84.3W   16.1N  88.5W   16.5N  93.5W
LBAR    23.5N  79.7W   30.3N  72.8W   35.0N  54.7W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        45KTS          47KTS          55KTS          59KTS
DSHP        45KTS          47KTS          55KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.0N LONCUR =  83.0W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  15.8N LONM12 =  82.9W DIRM12 = 348DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  14.6N LONM24 =  82.3W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

Updated the initial position.

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 191940
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1940 UTC TUE OCT 19 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20101019 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101019  1800   101020  0600   101020  1800   101021  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.4N  83.4W   18.4N  83.6W   19.0N  83.4W   18.9N  83.3W
BAMD    17.4N  83.4W   19.1N  82.7W   20.6N  81.2W   22.2N  78.8W
BAMM    17.4N  83.4W   18.3N  83.2W   18.8N  83.1W   18.8N  82.8W
LBAR    17.4N  83.4W   18.8N  82.9W   20.6N  82.1W   22.2N  81.0W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          39KTS          41KTS
DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          39KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101021  1800   101022  1800   101023  1800   101024  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.3N  83.4W   16.8N  84.9W   15.8N  88.8W   16.1N  93.1W
BAMD    24.3N  75.0W   30.2N  62.5W   36.9N  47.2W   46.1N  34.1W
BAMM    18.3N  82.9W   17.0N  84.6W   16.2N  88.8W   16.6N  93.7W
LBAR    24.6N  79.1W   31.8N  69.6W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        44KTS          45KTS          53KTS          57KTS
DSHP        44KTS          45KTS          45KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.4N LONCUR =  83.4W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  16.0N LONM12 =  83.1W DIRM12 = 341DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  14.6N LONM24 =  82.3W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[SootyTern]

12z CMC develops it and moves it towards Yucatan and later goes to BOC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

And look what it develops at the end of the run down in the Caribbean..looks like its the disturbance currently in the E. Atlantic which the NHC had at 20% last night

Is that two Cape Verdes out there? What month are we in now?
Model is probably just yanking our chain again.