I plotted the latest GFS predictions of the 700-400mb (10,000-20,000ft) steering flow projections with my estimate of the low center for today through Saturday below:





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SouthDadeFish wrote:The GFDL has quite a different track than what the GFS is forecasting. I wouldn't be so sure it moves inland into CA. Even if it stays just offshore, that would make a huge difference.
Vortex wrote:wxman57, would you say this is a done deal as far as any potential threat to the US given the pattern the next 5-7 days?
Vortex wrote:wxman57, would you say this is a done deal as far as any potential threat to the US given the pattern the next 5-7 days?
ronjon wrote:12z GFDL - 953 mb and 115 mph winds heading N-NW toward the GOM over western Cuba in 5 days.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010101912-invest99l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
cycloneye wrote:12z CMC develops it and moves it towards Yucatan and later goes to BOC.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
Code: Select all
369
WHXX01 KWBC 191903
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1903 UTC TUE OCT 19 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20101019 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101019 1800 101020 0600 101020 1800 101021 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 83.0W 18.1N 83.2W 18.8N 83.0W 18.8N 82.9W
BAMD 17.0N 83.0W 18.6N 82.6W 20.1N 81.3W 21.5N 79.3W
BAMM 17.0N 83.0W 18.0N 82.8W 18.5N 82.8W 18.5N 82.5W
LBAR 17.0N 83.0W 18.4N 82.6W 20.0N 82.0W 21.6N 81.2W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101021 1800 101022 1800 101023 1800 101024 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 83.1W 16.9N 84.6W 16.1N 88.6W 16.6N 93.1W
BAMD 23.3N 76.2W 28.7N 65.1W 34.5N 49.5W 41.3N 37.1W
BAMM 18.1N 82.6W 16.9N 84.3W 16.1N 88.5W 16.5N 93.5W
LBAR 23.5N 79.7W 30.3N 72.8W 35.0N 54.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 45KTS 47KTS 55KTS 59KTS
DSHP 45KTS 47KTS 55KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 83.0W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 82.9W DIRM12 = 348DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 82.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 191940
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1940 UTC TUE OCT 19 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20101019 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101019 1800 101020 0600 101020 1800 101021 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 83.4W 18.4N 83.6W 19.0N 83.4W 18.9N 83.3W
BAMD 17.4N 83.4W 19.1N 82.7W 20.6N 81.2W 22.2N 78.8W
BAMM 17.4N 83.4W 18.3N 83.2W 18.8N 83.1W 18.8N 82.8W
LBAR 17.4N 83.4W 18.8N 82.9W 20.6N 82.1W 22.2N 81.0W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101021 1800 101022 1800 101023 1800 101024 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 83.4W 16.8N 84.9W 15.8N 88.8W 16.1N 93.1W
BAMD 24.3N 75.0W 30.2N 62.5W 36.9N 47.2W 46.1N 34.1W
BAMM 18.3N 82.9W 17.0N 84.6W 16.2N 88.8W 16.6N 93.7W
LBAR 24.6N 79.1W 31.8N 69.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 44KTS 45KTS 53KTS 57KTS
DSHP 44KTS 45KTS 45KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.4N LONCUR = 83.4W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 83.1W DIRM12 = 341DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 82.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
caneseddy wrote:cycloneye wrote:12z CMC develops it and moves it towards Yucatan and later goes to BOC.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
And look what it develops at the end of the run down in the Caribbean..looks like its the disturbance currently in the E. Atlantic which the NHC had at 20% last night
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