ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[djones65]

A ship at 17.8N and 58.6W at 1800 UTC reported east winds (90 degrees) at 24.1 knots and seas of 13.1 feet. It is located 120 miles north of the vorticity maximum. A second ship also unidentified near 15.4N and 61.5W at 1800 UTC reported NNE winds (30 degrees) at 19 knots. This ship was located 190 miles west southwest of the vorticity maximum. Both ships reported 1015 mb pressures, but ambient pressure to the north is rather high at 1019 mb. Lastly, a buoy, I believe 41101, located near 14.6N and 56.2W had the sharp wave/low level vortmax pass very near it early this morning. As it passed pressure dropped to at least 1012 mb (we didn't get consistent observations as it passed), and at 1100UTC the winds were out of the south (180 degrees) at 7 knots. Obviously these obs do not confirm a surface circulation, but I don't think it rules out one either. Convection continues to blossom just to the east of the low level vortmax and I believe I can see it on the western edge of the latest burst of convection. If you look at water vapor loops there appears to be two upper level circulations forming within the TUTT lying across the Greater Antilles with the most significant being near 22N and 64W roughly. If this feature becomes more pronounced it will "pull" the strongest westerly winds north and westward allowing more ridging to develop over 92L. The upper low is moving westward. If it moves more southwestward it can help create a ridge over the northeastern Caribbean Sea. There are so many ifs obviously the potential for development into a tropical cyclone is very low, but I am glad to see NHC discussing it once again in their outlooks.

[Nederlander]

will 92L be passing by any buoys in the near future?? would love to see some data on how this system is being able to handle all of this shear..

[srainhoutx]

[tolakram]

will 92L be passing by any buoys in the near future?? would love to see some data on how this system is being able to handle all of this shear..

edit:

I was seeing something but clearly misreading the map.

[cycloneye]

92L is back at our authomated graphic above.

[lrak]

That blob of new convection blew up right over the leftover circulation...hmmm.

lrak AKA karl

[Fego]

"..still standing".. like the Billy Joel song. Open wave or not, look like it will be a raining weekend .



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[djones65]

Observations from Guadeloupe and all of the Lesser Antilles will be very interesting tonight. The potential for heavy rains is very significant for the islands of the northeast Caribbean and farther west over the weekend so I hope we don't see any problems from that. And as usual, even if this was a named tropical system, that would likely be the greatest threat anyway. But we should be able to get good surface observations now that 92L is approaching the islands, and if a closed surface circulation is observed I imagine NHC will have a dilemma of what to do...

[NONAME]

Whats the shear forecast look like now I can believe that 92L is still kinda around.

[Gustywind]

Big comeback and crossing directly maybe towards Guadeloupe and Antigua?

[Gustywind]

Observations from Guadeloupe and all of the Lesser Antilles will be very interesting tonight. The potential for heavy rains is very significant for the islands of the northeast Caribbean and farther west over the weekend so I hope we don't see any problems from that. And as usual, even if this was a named tropical system, that would likely be the greatest threat anyway. But we should be able to get good surface observations now that 92L is approaching the islands, and if a closed surface circulation is observed I imagine NHC will have a dilemma of what to do...

Absolutely my friend, if anything happens tonight and tommorow i will try to keep you informed as usual and as possible. Hope that ours friends from Guadeloupe and the adjacents islands of the carib will post some news too...
Gustywind

[MGC]

92L keeps hanging on. Gotta keep an eye on it until it completely falls apart. I'm afraid that if the shear relaxes to any degree it might organize quickly......MGC

[Brent]

The fact it looks decent in the face of 30-40 kts of shear tells me there's something to closely watch here. It may not ever develop, but I don't think it's dead either. It will have a much better environment to develop in 2-3 days.

[clfenwi]

92L keeps hanging on. Gotta keep an eye on it until it completely falls apart. I'm afraid that if the shear relaxes to any degree it might organize quickly......MGC

Indeed, SHIPS, assuming a low persisting through the forecast period starts to strengthen it after 96 hours or so, as the shear forecast by GFS drops under 20 knots. It also assumes the BAMM forecast track, which has the low clipping the southern coast of Hispanola.

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      AL922010  06/17/10  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    24    23    22    22    22    24    25    26    28    35    42    49
V (KT) LAND       25    24    23    22    22    22    24    25    26    25    30    37    44
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    24    23    22    21    20    20    21    23    26    32    35

SHEAR (KT)        36    36    31    29    24    27    24    25    14    21    20    18    19


[pepeavilenho]

IT'S NOT DEAD JIM!!

[cycloneye]

What it will do is bring plenty of squally weather to the NE Caribbean this weekend.More about local effects at the big Caribbean thread at U.S & Caribbean forum.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&p=1992304#p1992304

[Ivanhater]

It's interesting to note that right now is the strongest shear this will face. Shear decreasing ahead as 92L moves west

[Ivanhater]

[x-y-no]

It's still going to be moving into the teeth of the TUTT for at least two days, maybe three. But if it keeps pulsing like this, it's just possible there's something left to develop after that.

I wouldn't lay any money on it though.

[cycloneye]

Here is the synopsis from the San Juan NWS that talks about the TUTT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A TUTT AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW EXTENDING ALMOST
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARDS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND SPREADS NORTH
OVER THE LOCAL REGION.