ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[gatorcane]

I am looking at the floater and superimposed the LAT/LON grid. Certainly seems like the BLOBS are heading nearly due W, maybe just a hair north of due W...

[Bobo2000]

Ok still swirling on the east.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[gatorcane]

The 18Z NAM clearly shows the well-advertised weakness at 66 hours from now. You can see the big break in the ridge between Florida and about 60W or just north of Puerto Rico and the cold front/trough on the top of the image with all of the barbs pointing ENE....a strong system should slide nicely into that break like the GFDL, ECMWF, and CMC are showing:

[tailgater]

I don't think they will find a TD anywhere out this time around. to much low level flow.

[northtxboy]

I have been reading and watching what you all say for awhile now. I dont really post to much cause 90% of the time I have no idea what you all are talking about and by the time I do my own research to find out its all changed and we are talking about something elese. I do alot of reading and alot of model watching just like all of you and most nights I am up till 2am just like most of you. I would like to share my thoughts with u all about 91L (emily). These are just my thoughts and I am not a pro met or do I have any kind of back ground like that. This is just my thoughts and I would like to know what everyone thinks of them. everyone keeps talking about this trough that will build off the east coast that will cause 91L to recurve to the east and miss the U.S east coast. For a time I was with u all on that. But now I am kinda stuck in the middle. The trough dips down pretty low down past florida and is very amplified at the begining but notice that the short wave to the north is lifting out before 91L can be affected meaning that the base of the trough is leaving,the jet is leaving meaning the piece of the trough that sags down past florida MIGHT NOT make the ride and is then left behind. Its a trough split and that would start moving to the west over florida and into the GOM. There is a real possabilty that 91L (emily) might try to follow this upper level low as the ridge builds to the north. I think and these are just my thoughts, I think florida has a big bullseye on it and should be closely watched over the next few days. I am not saying it will get hit but it sure looks close to me.

[stormchazer]

Ok still swirling on the east.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Great look there. If you try to focus on lower level flows it does appear there are twin Lows but at what levels, who knows with out recon and no good surface observations. It will be interesting to see how the models hash out once, oh and if this develops. This is definitely a good "late-early season" development to watch.

[Aric Dunn]

Ok still swirling on the east.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Great look there. If you try to focus on lower level flows it does appear there are twin Lows but at what levels, who knows with out recon and no good surface observations. It will be interesting to see how the models hash out once, oh and if this develops. This is definitely a good "late-early season" development to watch.

everyone should really be using RGB. the layers are different colors... highlighted so that its easier to discern what level the clouds are at. ITs just a better tool all around

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

['CaneFreak]

I strongly agree here...thanks for sharing your opinion...it also looks to me that the trough split will be short lived and the ridge will build back in...in addition, I think the delayed strengthening of the parent disturbance would also argue for a further west track. This will definitely need to be watched in the coming days.

I have been reading and watching what you all say for awhile now. I dont really post to much cause 90% of the time I have no idea what you all are talking about and by the time I do my own research to find out its all changed and we are talking about something elese. I do alot of reading and alot of model watching just like all of you and most nights I am up till 2am just like most of you. I would like to share my thoughts with u all about 91L (emily). These are just my thoughts and I am not a pro met or do I have any kind of back ground like that. This is just my thoughts and I would like to know what everyone thinks of them. everyone keeps talking about this trough that will build off the east coast that will cause 91L to recurve to the east and miss the U.S east coast. For a time I was with u all on that. But now I am kinda stuck in the middle. The trough dips down pretty low down past florida and is very amplified at the begining but notice that the short wave to the north is lifting out before 91L can be affected meaning that the base of the trough is leaving,the jet is leaving meaning the piece of the trough that sags down past florida MIGHT NOT make the ride and is then left behind. Its a trough split and that would start moving to the west over florida and into the GOM. There is a real possabilty that 91L (emily) might try to follow this upper level low as the ridge builds to the north. I think and these are just my thoughts, I think florida has a big bullseye on it and should be closely watched over the next few days. I am not saying it will get hit but it sure looks close to me.

[Aric Dunn]

and switches to infrared at night...

[Rgv20]

This is the forecast for 72hrs (Wednesday Morning) from the 12z runs GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET. Notice that the UKMET is weaker with the trough than both the GFS and Euro and thus is further west and faster than the other two models.

[TwisterFanatic]

First time looking at this today, I see two blobs, which one is looking the best to become the dominate one? West?

[ozonepete]

Totally right, Aric. I use it most of the time, and it's especially useful for situations like this.

[KWT]

gatorcane, yeah that weakness is very obvious as you say, it'll probably at least begin a WNW motion.

I still think it maybe a close call, I'm thinking some of the models are overdoing the weakness, to get that sort of weakness in very early august would be slightly unusual, though not unheard of.

As per normal, strength/position going to be key.

UKMO has a left bias FWIW, usually overdoes the ridging a little, in the same way as GFS overdoes troughing.

[Aric Dunn]

gatorcane, yeah that weakness is very obvious as you say, it'll probably at least begin a WNW motion.

I still think it maybe a close call, I'm thinking some of the models are overdoing the weakness, to get that sort of weakness in very early august would be slightly unusual, though not unheard of.

As per normal, strength/position going to be key.

UKMO has a left bias FWIW, usually overdoes the ridging a little, in the same way as GFS overdoes troughing.

but its not responding the weakness very much.. could be to far south .. and weak

[Aric Dunn]

And if you look at the 72 hour nam the ridge starts building back west and the gap is closing as the trough lifts out

[ROCK]

this thing is caught up in the low level flow....the east looks like the one to develope....but that dang west blob dosent look to shabby either....what a weird set up.....look at the low level convergence...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


Emily in 05 did the same thing almost....kept going west with the low level...

[gatorcane]

And if you look at the 72 hour nam the ridge starts building back west and the gap is closing as the trough lifts out

I do see that. Here is the 84 hour 18Z NAM. In fact the 12Z NAM was not showing the ridging build back like that:

[vbhoutex]

Am I seeing the MLC from the East portion starting to move over the now very obvious LLC on the SE side of the West system? I'm afraid to say what I am seeing as it seems to change from hour to hour if not minute to minute.

[KWT]

I am looking at the floater and superimposed the LAT/LON grid. Certainly seems like the BLOBS are heading nearly due W, maybe just a hair north of due W...

Looks to me to be somewhere between 275-280 degrees, not exactly gaining all that much latitude, think thats coming in 24-36hrs time when it gets into the Caribbean.

[hurricanefloyd5]

And if you look at the 72 hour nam the ridge starts building back west and the gap is closing as the trough lifts out

so what dose this mean aric?