WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Remnants

[StormingB81]

TCFA ISSUED:

REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
139.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 135.5E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING NEAR A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 192133Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE
DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON INCREASING
ORGANIZATION AND VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

[StormingB81]

Cant put the photo up because this place won't let me..

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here you go, I also got a video coming up right now, still uploading, I stated in it I wouldn't be surprised if a TCFA pops soon out of it, so here you go! Unfortunately its still uploading! Darn you slow internet today!

[RobWESTPACWX]

And here is the video, I defiantly put a fluff peace in here today so you can skip over it, but also talk about 06W as well. Busy day I suppose. But my thoughts.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_i1bPeNwDk[/youtube]

[dexterlabio]

^Rob, it says that the video is unavailable.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I see youtube is working very slow today, it is currently being processed, should be up soon though..

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well looks like it stopped.. Not sure why, anyhow reloading it now, will be up on my channel on youtube if anyone wants to check it out, I haft to take off though.

[StormingB81]

I am taking a week of of vacation nex tweek so I am sure it will come to Okinawa just because it wants to mess with me..lol

[dexterlabio]

I'm interested to see your video update about this invest, Rob. Maybe I'm just going to check on it later. Nice videos as always, and I'm a bit surprised that you know some local news from here. Maybe it's because of TFC lol. But they are really informative, by the way.

Looking on the satloops, the large mass of convection seems to start spinning already. (?)

[dexterlabio]

I also think that this invest might just come first to snatch the next name away from 06W.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Agreed, I really think this is going to go to TD here in the next few hours, satellite imagery is very impressive at this time ~12Z.

[StormingB81]

Well I am going to one of the islands this weekend so watch this ruin my plans..

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well I am going to one of the islands this weekend so watch this ruin my plans..

What Island are you going to? And yes, it just might, don't worry I'm heading south this week too...

Here is a global view showing how large this system is right now.

[Chacor]

06z JMA:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 10N 138E WNW 10 KT.

[StormingB81]

I believe it is called Ikea Island

[StormingB81]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif


I usually go on this site to look at the forecast but it hasnt been working in a couple of days...anyone else?

[supercane]

Enjoyed the fluff piece, Rob. Happy Father's Day!

12Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 10N 136E WNW 10 KT.
20110620.1432.mtsat2.x.ir1km.99WINVEST.20kts-1007mb-118N-1332E.100pc.jpg


From NWS Guam's AFD:
.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WEATHER CONDITIONS NEAR YAP AND PALAU REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF 99W..THE CIRCULATION NOW W-NW OF YAP AND THE SUBJECT OF A JTWC
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT...AND A MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP SE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
AT PALAU POSSIBLY THROUGH WED AND AT YAP FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED NIGHT. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SW THROUGH WED AND STAY
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATES SEAS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD FROM 6 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT AND TUE TO 7 TO 9 FEET BY
TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IF 99W DEVELOPS
ADDITIONALLY BEFORE MOVING AWAY IN THE COMING DAYS...AND A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED BY TUE NIGHT AT PALAU FOR WEST
FACING REEFS. ALSO...15 TO 20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 2N AND
7N MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG WEST- FACING LAGOON BEACHES
OF ATOLLS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU
AND YAP STATE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

ASCAT missed but clear circulation:


Storming, I've had trouble with the site too. They moved to http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/glblgen/index.html, but the interface is not as convenient as the other site. Here are the 00Z model scatterplot from earlier. Hope this won't affect your vacation.

[supercane]

JTWC 18Z satellite bulletin shows continued development:
TPPN11 PGTW 201832
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (NE OF PALAU)
B. 20/1732Z
C. 11.1N
D. 132.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/18HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LOG10 YIELDS .30 WRAP, RESULTING
IN 1.5 DT. PT COMES TO 2.0. DT USED TO DETERMINE FT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SMITH

[wxman57]

My computer terminal is calculating an AODT value of 2.5 to 3.0.

[StormingB81]

Thank you supercane!