EPAC: DORA - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1295
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#201 Postby plasticup » Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:59 pm

Dora's eye looks to be a little clearer and a little better defined. But the cloud-tops have warmed slightly. She should have another 24-36 hours of warm SST, so we'll see tomorrow whether she makes the push for category 5 strength.
0 likes   
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15960
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#202 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:15 pm

plasticup wrote:Dora's eye looks to be a little clearer and a little better defined. But the cloud-tops have warmed slightly. She should have another 24-36 hours of warm SST, so we'll see tomorrow whether she makes the push for category 5 strength.


I would love to see a Cat 5 as a Dora. Is she the strongest Dora yet?
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33399
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#203 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:17 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
plasticup wrote:Dora's eye looks to be a little clearer and a little better defined. But the cloud-tops have warmed slightly. She should have another 24-36 hours of warm SST, so we'll see tomorrow whether she makes the push for category 5 strength.


I would love to see a Cat 5 as a Dora. Is she the strongest Dora yet?


The 1964 Dora in the Atlantic had a pressure of 942mb.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#204 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:19 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
plasticup wrote:Dora's eye looks to be a little clearer and a little better defined. But the cloud-tops have warmed slightly. She should have another 24-36 hours of warm SST, so we'll see tomorrow whether she makes the push for category 5 strength.


I would love to see a Cat 5 as a Dora. Is she the strongest Dora yet?


Dora in 1999 got up to 140 mph ... my guess this one will surpass it
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31391
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#205 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:23 pm

Its certainly got the time to make it to category-5 and it does look like an impressive system thats for sure...

Could get a run at 5 for tomorrow morning when we get Dmax, suspect we'll be in the 130-140kts range by then.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
Fyzn94
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 190
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2011 10:00 pm
Location: Central AR, USA

Re:

#206 Postby Fyzn94 » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:37 pm

KWT wrote:Its certainly got the time to make it to category-5 and it does look like an impressive system thats for sure...

Could get a run at 5 for tomorrow morning when we get Dmax, suspect we'll be in the 130-140kts range by then.

Well, that could be her only window of opportunity.
0 likes   
NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#207 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 20, 2011 8:26 pm

Image

impressive and dangerous
0 likes   
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#208 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 20, 2011 8:42 pm

I'd say 125 or 130kts right now.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#209 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 20, 2011 8:47 pm

Image

taking full advantage of the environment
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4033
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#210 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Jul 20, 2011 8:59 pm

Wow what a beautiful major hurricane Dora is right now! With no threat to land expected we can just say wow to her beautifulness.
0 likes   
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#211 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:02 pm

Image

So..."a" word anyone?
0 likes   
Top
Battlebrick
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 177
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:55 pm

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#212 Postby Battlebrick » Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:02 pm

it looks like it's shrinking in size.. reason for that?
0 likes   
Lim_Fao on IRC.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#213 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:04 pm

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/21/11 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

Not yet, but its taking on some characteristics.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#214 Postby Macrocane » Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:11 pm

Yeah I was thinking about it, seems to have gained some annular characteristics: big eye, little banding, very simmetrical, but I agree is not annular yet and maybe it won't be, anyway is such a beautiful hurricane. With that big eye I bet she's a good explorer :wink:
0 likes   
Top
Battlebrick
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 177
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:55 pm

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#215 Postby Battlebrick » Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:16 pm

Estimates on size of eye? 20 nm?
0 likes   
Lim_Fao on IRC.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#216 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:22 pm

Battlebrick wrote:Estimates on size of eye? 20 nm?


Looks to be about 0.6 degrees of latitude across which would be about 36 nm (0.6 degree = 36 minutes = 36 nm)
0 likes   
Top
Battlebrick
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 177
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:55 pm

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#217 Postby Battlebrick » Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:23 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Battlebrick wrote:Estimates on size of eye? 20 nm?


Looks to be about 0.6 degrees of latitude across which would be about 36 nm (0.6 degree = 36 minutes = 36 nm)

Wow, I was way off! Katrina's eye peaked at something like that, right?
0 likes   
Lim_Fao on IRC.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#218 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:27 pm

I measured 34nm.

Looks like Katrina peaked about 30nm.
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33399
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#219 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:33 pm

By this time tomorrow, Dora will likely be headed into the spin cycle...so she better enjoy it while it lasts!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Fyzn94
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 190
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2011 10:00 pm
Location: Central AR, USA

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#220 Postby Fyzn94 » Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:48 pm

The new advisory says there has been no change in intensity. :sleeping:
0 likes   
NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests