ATL: IRENE - Models
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NC George
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I'm near Greenville, NC, and definitely have my eye on this one. Nothing worries me more than a predicted east coast Florida hit on the 4-5 day.
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Bertha '96, Fran '96, Bonnie '98, Dennis '99, Floyd '99 
, Isabel '03, Irene '11, Matthew '16, Isaias '20, PTC16????
Avatar is heading into Florence 2018, moving friend's boat, only land between us and Hurricane Florence is Ocracoke Island!
, Isabel '03, Irene '11, Matthew '16, Isaias '20, PTC16????Avatar is heading into Florence 2018, moving friend's boat, only land between us and Hurricane Florence is Ocracoke Island!
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
do you have a link scorpion?
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Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
i think those winds are at the 850mb level, not the surface. thank goodness.
edit...to clarify i was referring to bamajammer's gfs graphic which showed that huge windfield. and it does indicate at the top those are the winds @ 850mb
edit...to clarify i was referring to bamajammer's gfs graphic which showed that huge windfield. and it does indicate at the top those are the winds @ 850mb
Last edited by psyclone on Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
SFLcane wrote:00z CMC into south Florida
[img]http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif
Well the hits just keep coming tonight don't they!
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Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
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HugoCameandLeft
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Re:
psyclone wrote:i think those winds are at the 850mb level, not the surface. thank goodness.
Good grief. I'm glad you posted that... I was wondering how in the world the entire state of SC could be covered in hurricane force winds... time to rest, I think.
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Hurricaneman
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Scorpion
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Well okay. The GFS shifted slightly west. The CMC shifted way west into south florida. Reportedly the HWRF shifted "way" west. Are these models perhaps admitting that the GFDL may be right afterall? If so, will they shift even further west in future runs???
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AdamFirst
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I predict the EURO will be right in line with the GFS, as it has been for the whole week.
GFDL out yet?
GFDL out yet?
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Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:SFLcane wrote:00z CMC into south Florida
[img]http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif
Well the hits just keep coming tonight don't they!
That is a big shift west!
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ConvergenceZone
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Just remember if it shifts west, then the intensity will also come down quite a bit, as it might even move over part of Cuba, and it won't have as much time over water before impacting south Florida.... If it goes east, then a Major's in the making, whereas if it goes west, then perhaps we MIGHT still get a hurricane out of it, but if it goes too far south and west, Cuba will shred what's left of it....
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Evil Jeremy
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TwisterFanatic
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Aaaand here we go again!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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bamajammer4eva
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Re:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Just remember if it shifts west, then the intensity will also come down quite a bit, as it might even move over part of Cuba, and it won't have as much time over water before impacting south Florida.... If it goes east, then a Major's in the making, whereas if it goes west, then perhaps we MIGHT still get a hurricane out of it, but if it goes too far south and west, Cuba will shred what's left of it....
Gulf waters are the warmest so there would be plenty of time for it to reach Major
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Re: Re:
bamajammer4eva wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:Just remember if it shifts west, then the intensity will also come down quite a bit, as it might even move over part of Cuba, and it won't have as much time over water before impacting south Florida.... If it goes east, then a Major's in the making, whereas if it goes west, then perhaps we MIGHT still get a hurricane out of it, but if it goes too far south and west, Cuba will shred what's left of it....
Gulf waters are the warmest so there would be plenty of time for it to reach Major
sure if it made into the GOM....
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HurricaneWarning92
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Maybe the ridge is stronger? and trough is weaker than first thought?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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