ATL: IRENE - Models

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NC George
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#3081 Postby NC George » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:58 pm

I'm near Greenville, NC, and definitely have my eye on this one. Nothing worries me more than a predicted east coast Florida hit on the 4-5 day.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3082 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:58 pm

do you have a link scorpion?
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#3083 Postby psyclone » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:59 pm

i think those winds are at the 850mb level, not the surface. thank goodness.
edit...to clarify i was referring to bamajammer's gfs graphic which showed that huge windfield. and it does indicate at the top those are the winds @ 850mb
Last edited by psyclone on Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3084 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:59 pm

00z CMC into south Florida

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3085 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:00 am

SFLcane wrote:00z CMC into south Florida

[img]http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif


Well the hits just keep coming tonight don't they!
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#3086 Postby HugoCameandLeft » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:00 am

psyclone wrote:i think those winds are at the 850mb level, not the surface. thank goodness.


Good grief. I'm glad you posted that... I was wondering how in the world the entire state of SC could be covered in hurricane force winds... time to rest, I think.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3087 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:01 am

Looks like all the models are shifting towards the NHC track
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#3088 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:01 am

Wow... big time west shifts happening tonight.. SFL looks to be in the bullseye again
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3089 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:01 am

Well okay. The GFS shifted slightly west. The CMC shifted way west into south florida. Reportedly the HWRF shifted "way" west. Are these models perhaps admitting that the GFDL may be right afterall? If so, will they shift even further west in future runs???
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#3090 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:02 am

I predict the EURO will be right in line with the GFS, as it has been for the whole week.

GFDL out yet?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3091 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:03 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
SFLcane wrote:00z CMC into south Florida

[img]http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif


Well the hits just keep coming tonight don't they!



That is a big shift west!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3092 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:03 am

hwrf is also way west...just waiting for run to finish.
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#3093 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:04 am

Just remember if it shifts west, then the intensity will also come down quite a bit, as it might even move over part of Cuba, and it won't have as much time over water before impacting south Florida.... If it goes east, then a Major's in the making, whereas if it goes west, then perhaps we MIGHT still get a hurricane out of it, but if it goes too far south and west, Cuba will shred what's left of it....
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#3094 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:05 am

flippidy floppidy, the models are wobbily.
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#3095 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:06 am

The CMC is showing a big West shift but to keep that in perspective, I think it was WAY too far East on its last run. It had to come back in line.
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#3096 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:06 am

Aaaand here we go again!
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#3097 Postby psyclone » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:06 am

i was hopeful (for florida's sake) an east trend was underway but that appears to have halted based on what we see tonight.
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Re:

#3098 Postby bamajammer4eva » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:07 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Just remember if it shifts west, then the intensity will also come down quite a bit, as it might even move over part of Cuba, and it won't have as much time over water before impacting south Florida.... If it goes east, then a Major's in the making, whereas if it goes west, then perhaps we MIGHT still get a hurricane out of it, but if it goes too far south and west, Cuba will shred what's left of it....


Gulf waters are the warmest so there would be plenty of time for it to reach Major
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Re: Re:

#3099 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:08 am

bamajammer4eva wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Just remember if it shifts west, then the intensity will also come down quite a bit, as it might even move over part of Cuba, and it won't have as much time over water before impacting south Florida.... If it goes east, then a Major's in the making, whereas if it goes west, then perhaps we MIGHT still get a hurricane out of it, but if it goes too far south and west, Cuba will shred what's left of it....


Gulf waters are the warmest so there would be plenty of time for it to reach Major


sure if it made into the GOM.... :D
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#3100 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:08 am

Maybe the ridge is stronger? and trough is weaker than first thought?
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