ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

00z Tropical Models.



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The bam models did not move much this time.. although the shallow looks like it going to do a loop... wonder if things shift more west for 00z

[stormreader]

If this were October and Emily was a cat 2 hurricane you know that trough would dig and take her out to the east. The troughs will dig all the way to Panama that time of year.

The trough has already dug unseasonably far south almost to Andros island now. The thing that is bugging me is that Emily is still just a tropical storm embedded in a somewhat zonal subtropical ridge.

No doubt she will get pulled north some but don't tropical storms in the Caribbean often get bypassed by troughs this time of year?

Hard to imagine her being totally bypassed. But the pick up might be delayed slightly. I think thats what some models are showing.

[Rgv20]

The 12zEuro basically has the same track as the TVCN.

[caneseddy]

00z Tropical Models.



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Looks like NHC may shift back to the west, but not too much

[Evil Jeremy]

Overall consensus has shifted east. Not a big change though. 00z suite will be key, will determine if the 18z models are a fluke or if the trend has reversed again. This, combined with Emily's westward movement will likely result in a west shift in the 11pm cone.

[NDG]

Kory, expect the NHC to shift their track westward, maybe just slightly as we know they change tracks convservative, now that their beloved TVCN concensus model is to the west of their track.
BTW, I think that the 12z euro is slightly west of the current NHC track.

[Aric Dunn]

actually the deep bam for 3rd run has a hard left... and come to think of it the hurricane models gfdl and the two hwrf's also in the southern bahamas wobble more westerly as they intensify ... could be that the ridging just a little farther west is strong enough to keep it from the weakness

[Kory]

Kory, expect the NHC to shift their track westward, maybe just slightly as we know they change tracks convservative, now that their beloved TVCN concensus model is to the west of their track.
BTW, I think that the 12z euro is slightly west of the current NHC track.

I know they will shift it, but it's not going to be a big change...just a slight west shift.

[itsahurricane]

Kory, expect the NHC to shift their track westward, maybe just slightly as we know they change tracks convservative, now that their beloved TVCN concensus model is to the west of their track.
BTW, I think that the 12z euro is slightly west of the current NHC track.

I know they will shift it, but it's not going to be a big change...just a slight west shift.

It's going to be a major shift to the West.

[NDG]

Kory, expect the NHC to shift their track westward, maybe just slightly as we know they change tracks convservative, now that their beloved TVCN concensus model is to the west of their track.
BTW, I think that the 12z euro is slightly west of the current NHC track.

I know they will shift it, but it's not going to be a big change...just a slight west shift.

I thought that's what I said, lol.

[blp]

PR Long Range Radar showing some banding at least at the mid levels. Hard to confirm LLC movement at such elevation though.

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=JUA&brand=wui&num=40&delay=5&type=N0Z&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1312330054&lat=18.46724892&lon=-66.10896301&label=San+Juan%2C+PR&showstorms=5&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&smooth=0

[capepoint]

Pretty sharp turn east off NC for the past several runs now. Slim chance I know, but it's not unheard of for storms to do a full clockwise loop off of the SE coast. Will be interesting to watch the models and the high for the next few days.

[Rgv20]

Taking a blend of the GFDL, HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF I think Emily will pass a good 150 to 200 miles east of Florida, It is still to close for comfort tho.

[stormhunter7]

aric... seems when the BAMS suite starts showing small loops like that... it takes a few cycles and sometimes the Globals follow with a slow down or a bend one way or another. I know there shallow models, but if i remember from past... its usually a sign of missing the trough coming through and allowing the ridge build back, or just maybe slightly stronger ridge. Interesting to see this trend, but cant wait til we get the G-IV data into the globals! That should greatly help us understand more.

[Kory]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sticking to my current forecast of it staying far enough to the east that only a few showers and high surf will be a problem.

[sunnyday]

I'm not clear about what is going on. Some say the storm will be well away from the Fl coast, and others say the new models will move more west, close to or "up the spine" of Florida. Can someone please explain? Thanks so much.

[stormreader]

You see the storms along the trough boundary in S Fl--Has reached its fullest extent. Any flattening would allow the storm to advance a little further north and west. Storm might then make it up to the lat of central Fl before beginning to curl around the Atlantic Ridge and then kick out to the right. Not saying this is gonna happen. Just an amateur here. Just trying to understand some of the recent model solutions.

[SunnyThoughts]

When is the next G-IV flight? Sometime tomorrow?

[Evil Jeremy]

Kory, expect the NHC to shift their track westward, maybe just slightly as we know they change tracks convservative, now that their beloved TVCN concensus model is to the west of their track.
BTW, I think that the 12z euro is slightly west of the current NHC track.

I know they will shift it, but it's not going to be a big change...just a slight west shift.

It's going to be a major shift to the West.

@Kory: Yes, it should be a slight west shift. What is more important though is the trend. Multiple slight west shifts over the time of a couple forecasts (if the models trend west again) makes a difference. Every shift is important, no matter how slightly.

@itsahurricane: Possible but unlikely. NHC doesn't often make "major" shifts.

[Blown Away]

00z Tropical Models.



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Looks like NHC may shift back to the west, but not too much

About 100 mile shift to the west for the NHC hugging TVCN near the Florida coast, that's significant IMO! About 90 miles from WPB.