ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Close up
See how the juicy convection is spreading on Guadeloupe bringing already showers and tstorms on us... and more is to come folks! One word this year in Guadeloupe rain rain rain this

[Adoquín]

wnw to me, or the effort at llc formation continues to play tricks on our perception. in any event we are going to be drenched in rain.

[Dave]

861
URNT15 KNHC 201723
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 04 20110820
171330 1711N 06330W 3991 07612 0415 -163 //// 093008 008 /// /// 05
171400 1710N 06328W 3949 07697 0420 -170 //// 091009 009 /// /// 05
171430 1709N 06326W 3900 07789 0425 -175 //// 094010 010 /// /// 05
171500 1708N 06324W 3854 07874 0432 -181 //// 095009 009 /// /// 05
171530 1707N 06322W 3804 07980 0439 -188 //// 097008 009 /// /// 05
171600 1706N 06320W 3767 08049 0442 -195 //// 095008 009 /// /// 05
171630 1705N 06317W 3755 08070 0442 -199 //// 097008 009 /// /// 05
171700 1704N 06315W 3758 08065 0442 -196 -235 097009 009 /// /// 05
171730 1703N 06313W 3758 08062 0439 -198 -255 097009 010 /// /// 03
171800 1702N 06311W 3758 08059 0438 -197 -274 091008 010 /// /// 03
171830 1701N 06308W 3758 08057 0437 -195 -283 091008 009 /// /// 03
171900 1700N 06306W 3758 08061 0436 -196 -245 088007 008 /// /// 03
171930 1659N 06303W 3758 08059 0436 -195 -284 083008 008 /// /// 03
172000 1658N 06301W 3758 08060 0436 -195 -283 088008 010 /// /// 03
172030 1657N 06259W 3761 08056 0436 -195 -295 095009 011 /// /// 03
172100 1656N 06256W 3760 08058 0436 -195 -305 091008 008 /// /// 03
172130 1654N 06254W 3758 08051 0434 -194 -306 085007 008 /// /// 03
172200 1653N 06251W 3758 08055 0434 -195 -314 071008 008 /// /// 03
172230 1652N 06249W 3759 08050 0433 -192 -313 077008 008 /// /// 03
172300 1651N 06246W 3758 08056 0433 -193 -312 065007 007 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Gustywind]

Meteo Guadeloupe put a center near 13,8N 58W and an Orange alert for our territories.
The weather is overcast( cirrostratus and alto stratus ) with Cb clouds, passing rain and strong thunder...Things are beginin folks...Stay tunes and be prepared!

Thanks for you report HUC . The same here in my locality. Looking at the radar of Meteo-France squalls lines are not so far from our island! Let's continue to monitor carefully 97L approaching pretty closely now...

keep us updated Gusty and HUC.
we are keeping a close outlook here also. so far sunny skies.

No problem Barbara i will keep you informed ( HUC too ) as all our friends from the carib and the Be safe and dry Msbee, we continue to monitor closely the situation.

[NDG]

I still see a lot of easterly winds south of the MLC.
I still think that a closed LLC may not develop until tonight or early tomorrow morning at the earliest, if it enters the Caribbean without a closed circulation it may not close it until it slows down after feeling the weakness to its NW by day 3.

[Aric Dunn]

I still see a lot of easterly winds south of the MLC.
I still think that a closed LLC may not develop until tonight or early tomorrow morning at the earliest, if it enters the Caribbean without a closed circulation it may not close it until it slows down after feeling the weakness to its NW by day 3.

ITs really hard to tell right now with so much debris clouds. recon will tell us soon.

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

628
URNT15 KNHC 201733
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 05 20110820
172330 1650N 06244W 3758 08053 0432 -193 -319 060008 009 /// /// 03
172400 1649N 06241W 3761 08047 0432 -190 -321 067009 010 /// /// 03
172430 1647N 06239W 3759 08050 0432 -193 -320 067010 010 /// /// 03
172500 1646N 06236W 3758 08050 0432 -195 -323 062010 011 /// /// 03
172530 1645N 06234W 3758 08053 0432 -194 -316 052011 012 /// /// 03
172600 1644N 06231W 3759 08049 0431 -195 -276 043008 009 /// /// 03
172630 1643N 06229W 3760 08049 0431 -195 -246 036007 009 /// /// 03
172700 1642N 06226W 3759 08046 0431 -195 -280 046010 010 /// /// 03
172730 1640N 06224W 3758 08052 0430 -197 -306 048009 009 /// /// 03
172800 1639N 06221W 3758 08048 0428 -195 -297 053011 011 /// /// 03
172830 1638N 06219W 3758 08051 0428 -197 -299 044011 012 /// /// 03
172900 1637N 06216W 3758 08053 0428 -195 -293 032009 010 /// /// 03
172930 1636N 06214W 3758 08052 0428 -200 -305 049007 008 /// /// 03
173000 1634N 06211W 3761 08047 0429 -198 -326 026006 007 /// /// 03
173030 1633N 06209W 3758 08051 0429 -195 -317 040009 010 /// /// 03
173100 1632N 06206W 3760 08043 0428 -191 -306 042010 011 /// /// 03
173130 1631N 06204W 3759 08048 0429 -193 -304 035009 010 /// /// 03
173200 1629N 06201W 3758 08050 0427 -196 -304 035010 011 /// /// 03
173230 1628N 06159W 3759 08051 0429 -198 -290 038010 011 /// /// 03
173300 1627N 06156W 3760 08046 0429 -200 -295 043012 014 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

The Western edge is now in range of the Lesser Antilles radar fence.

[HURAKAN]

[johngaltfla]

You can tell it's August. Here is the Forecast Discussion from NWS - Tampa, FL:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 201740
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
140 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
A FAIRLY TYPICAL AND RATHER SIMPLISTIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MUCH MORE COMPLEX BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN
THOUGH MUCH OF WEEK. EXPECTING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INLAND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. HAVE MAINTAIN 30/40 POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE LAST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING A TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...WILL
WAIT TO ADJUST THE FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM TAKES BETTER SHAPE
WITH BETTER SYNOPTIC CONSISTENCY FROM THE MODELS.

[AdamFirst]

Imagine if this thing were a named storm, or a hurricane right now...what a mammoth beast giant it would be.

Good thing it's not for our friends in the Antillies.

[northtxboy]

tell them to hurry up!!!!!!!!!!

[NDG]

Will be watching the area near 60W SW of the MLC, that's where I see the most convergence on vis sat loop, UW-CIMSS graphics show it also, that's where we will possibly see the LLC develop later today.

[Dave]

423
URNT15 KNHC 201743
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 06 20110820
173330 1626N 06154W 3754 08061 0431 -202 -301 030014 015 /// /// 03
173400 1624N 06152W 3759 08051 0427 -205 -271 036012 014 /// /// 03
173430 1622N 06150W 3759 08043 0425 -208 -241 030015 015 /// /// 03
173500 1620N 06148W 3761 08031 0368 -200 //// 040015 019 /// /// 05
173530 1620N 06145W 3758 07881 0255 -192 //// 051014 019 /// /// 05
173600 1620N 06142W 3758 08029 0413 -201 //// 028014 016 /// /// 05
173630 1619N 06140W 3759 08040 0419 -205 //// 022013 014 /// /// 05
173700 1618N 06137W 3758 08020 0412 -193 //// 068009 010 /// /// 05
173730 1617N 06134W 3758 08037 0407 -187 -196 092013 014 /// /// 03
173800 1616N 06132W 3761 08014 0387 -190 //// 064015 015 /// /// 05
173830 1615N 06129W 3762 07974 0367 -190 //// 078016 019 /// /// 05
173900 1614N 06127W 3761 07930 0343 -190 //// 090018 019 /// /// 05
173930 1613N 06124W 3759 08031 0409 -189 //// 086019 020 /// /// 05
174000 1611N 06122W 3758 08046 0421 -185 //// 100019 022 /// /// 05
174030 1610N 06120W 3759 08047 0425 -181 //// 068020 023 /// /// 05
174100 1609N 06117W 3761 08043 0425 -182 //// 058021 022 /// /// 05
174130 1607N 06115W 3756 08052 0425 -185 //// 062023 024 /// /// 05
174200 1605N 06113W 3760 08048 0425 -185 //// 066017 022 /// /// 05
174230 1603N 06111W 3758 08047 0426 -185 //// 056019 022 /// /// 05
174300 1602N 06109W 3758 08050 0426 -182 //// 051021 023 /// /// 05
$$
;


My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the DHS (Dept of Homeland Security), NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

It's definitely not as far north as 15N, as a buoy at 14.8N/56.2W has an east wind at 20 kts. LLC looks too disorganized for classification today. Doubt it will make hurricane strength before Cuba. No guarantee it will be a hurricane if/when it reaches Florida if it spends so much time over land as the latest GFS is suggesting.

I'm almost certain it wouldn't be a hurricane, nowhere near enough timer over water, 12-18hrs won't do it given the amount of time it'll have had overland, probably looking at a 50-60kts system there.

As I said last night, any circulation must be further south but odds are there just isn't any LLC at all right now, MLC was strong last night but has since weakened.

Still gotta think any LLC will take off further north with the convection but doesn't always work that way...If it were to try and set up further north it'd increase the systems chances of missing Hispaniola.

[Gustywind]

wnw to me, or the effort at llc formation continues to play tricks on our perception. in any event we are going to be drenched in rain.

Your're definitely right and as our forecaster of Meteo-France said concerning this pretty active twave: "All the islands of the Lesser Antilles should deal with the rain this weekend!". One wish hoping that nothing bad occurs especially in the islands previously well showered: Dominica with Emily as Martinica, and more recently Guadeloupe Monday and Tuesday this week ( but that's enough now ). Looks like that these 3 islands get most of the active twaves, strange debuts surprising season for us in the EC and the year is not finished!
Something to meditate as we're approaching dangerously September...

[HURAKAN]

[EyELeSs1]

Barbados still reporting fairly decent easterly winds... if there is a LLC it definitely isn't well organized

[SouthFloridawx]

If it develops under the MLC then it would certainly move farther north.