ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[wxman57]

If it's the LLC by 23.3N 79W that will be quite interesting. That one sure looks like it's going WNW into the eastern Gulf. No way that's going to wind up east of Florida.

Steering currents suggest otherwise.

[cpdaman]

Click the link below and then click on the FRONTS tab. You can see where the low is located.

I can also see clouds quicks blowing off of cuba and getting sucked into where that Low is located (inflow).

Lots of convection now starting to surround that area of lower pressure.

There is something going on there. If trends continue I can see this up to 80%+ by next TWO:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

That's where the weak low pressure area WAS located quite a while ago. It's not there now.

nhc says it is 1 hour ago.

are you basing this on a lack of obs. because obs are sparse and would never really find a LLC based on how sparse the obs are.

but obviously you know your stuff....so what other tools do you use besides lack of obs to determine LLC is not there

[jonj2040]

Cuban radar gif
btw is there any way to speed these up? could some one PM me if there is

[ozonepete]

If it's the LLC by 23.3N 79W that will be quite interesting. That one sure looks like it's going WNW into the eastern Gulf. No way that's going to wind up east of Florida.

Steering currents suggest otherwise.

How so wxman? Here's the steering winds for weak systems from CIMSS:



Where do you think it would go?

[Frank2]

Nothing much there, aside from scattered convection associated with perhaps a weak ULL, the remnants (which is a word hard to spell - lol) of Em and the frontal trough to the north...

Have a good weekend, everyone...

Frank

[Vortex]

A few reports now of SW winds over Cuba....



Cienfuegos
Cuba


Current Cienfuegos Weather Conditions Updated Aug 05, 2011 12:52 PM


Mostly Cloudy
Temperature: 33°C Dew Point: 25°C
Barometer: 101.2 kPa Wind: SW 17 km/h
Humidity: 63 % Visibility: n/a

[ozonepete]

A few reports now of SW winds over Cuba....



Cienfuegos
Cuba


Current Cienfuegos Weather Conditions Updated Aug 05, 2011 12:52 PM


Mostly Cloudy
Temperature: 33°C Dew Point: 25°C
Barometer: 101.2 kPa Wind: SW 17 km/h
Humidity: 63 % Visibility: n/a

That could be the seabreeze though, right?

[Vortex]

Convection continues to increase overall and is beginning to tap into the NW carribean...

[Sanibel]

I'm also seeing a naked weak center headed through the Straits to the Gulf.

[Frank2]

Ceinfuegos would be too far away (due south of Miami) and perhaps just related to their afternoon seabreezes from the Caribbean...

Perhaps still a very weak LLC without any upper air support but it can't be more than that at this time...

[bamajammer4eva]

JB still likes it

BigJoeBastardiJoe Bastardi

Emily fought Hispaniola and Hispaniola won. System looks ragged psble cntr 22.5, 75.0 http://t.co/PyN3X3i

5 hours ago

[wxman57]

If it's the LLC by 23.3N 79W that will be quite interesting. That one sure looks like it's going WNW into the eastern Gulf. No way that's going to wind up east of Florida.

Steering currents suggest otherwise.

How so wxman? Here's the steering winds for weak systems from CIMSS:

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... -0518Z.gif

Where do you think it would go?

Steering currents today won't match tomorrow. The disturbance is rounding an area of high pressure to its east. Should track northward through the western Bahamas tomorrow then NE and out to sea Sunday. Oh, and the NHC position as of an hour ago was in the vicinity of 23N/78W.

[ozonepete]

Where do you think it would go?

Steering currents today won't match tomorrow. The disturbance is rounding an area of high pressure to its east. Should track northward through the western Bahamas tomorrow then NE and out to sea Sunday. Oh, and the NHC position as of an hour ago was in the vicinity of 23N/78W.

Thanks, wxman. That NHC position is definitely the one that's on the KMIA radar. And it DOES look like it may close off.

[wxman57]

Where do you think it would go?

Steering currents today won't match tomorrow. The disturbance is rounding an area of high pressure to its east. Should track northward through the western Bahamas tomorrow then NE and out to sea Sunday. Oh, and the NHC position as of an hour ago was in the vicinity of 23N/78W.

Thanks, wxman. That NHC position is definitely the one that's on the KMIA radar. And it DOES look like it may close off.

Now being weaker, that low-level vorticity center COULD pass right over south Florida before turning north. In that case, heaviest squalls would still remain offshore tomorrow, but it would enhance daytime storms across the state through Sunday morning.

[Vortex]

I think deep convection firing over her suspected center should be enough to spawn a surface reflection overnight in the vicinity of Andros...Should track NW/NNW to just offshore the SE FL coast by late Saturday before turning N then NE....

[ozonepete]

Now being weaker, that low-level vorticity center COULD pass right over south Florida before turning north. In that case, heaviest squalls would still remain offshore tomorrow, but it would enhance daytime storms across the state through Sunday morning.

I'm inclined to think that that really may happen since it's moving quite fast.

[artist]

I'm just waiting for her to possibly get over the Gulf Stream and see what happens then.

[canes04]

2PM TWD.

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N76W JUST OFF THE COAST
OF CUBA ON THE BAHAMAS SIDE.

[Vortex]

Now being weaker, that low-level vorticity center COULD pass right over south Florida before turning north. In that case, heaviest squalls would still remain offshore tomorrow, but it would enhance daytime storms across the state through Sunday morning.

I'm inclined to think that that really may happen since it's moving quite fast.

more or less my current thinking....

[wxman57]

All models in agreement now. Even the Canadian shifted to the eastern Bahamas - it was the farthest west before. A couple of GFDL versions do take the vorticity over the FL Peninsula: