ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Looks like it's going right up Delaware Bay.

Be careful interpolating between the NHC's 48 and 72 hour positions. Unfortunately, they do not include 12hr positions. The 48 and 72 hr points are connected with a straight line, making it appear as though their track is into Delaware Bay. Sandy will not be moving NW at landfall but probably almost due west. This means the NHC track would be into southern NJ if they had a 60hr point placed well to the north (and a bit east) of their 48 hr point.

[cycloneye]

Excerpt from 11 AM Discussion.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW SHARP A
WESTWARD TURN THE CYCLONE MAKES BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS...
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 48
HOURS AND THEN A VERY HARD TURN TO THE WEST...MEANING THAT SANDY
WOULD LIKELY COME ASHORE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST...RATHER THAN
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY DRAWING A STRAIGHT LINE
BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS. HAVING SAID THAT...IT
IS STILL TO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER...BOTH
BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE IMPACTS ARE GOING
TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

[ROCK]

I like Jeff and all but that AFD was down right frightening....jeez...

[RL3AO]

Looks like it's going right up Delaware Bay.

Be careful interpolating between the NHC's 48 and 72 hour positions. Unfortunately, they do not include 12hr positions. The 48 and 72 hr points are connected with a straight line, making it appear as though their track is into Delaware Bay. Sandy will not be moving NW at landfall but probably almost due west. This means the NHC track would be into southern NJ if they had a 60hr point placed well to the north (and a bit east) of their 48 hr point.

[Stephanie]

I like Jeff and all but that AFD was down right frightening....jeez...

It NEEDS to be frightening.

[wxman57]

Or like this - a little farther north before the west bend. Look for the NHC's 48hr position to be adjusted northward for the next 2 advisories, at least. A 60hr point (and 84hr) would be very helpful with such storms.

[x-y-no]

Buoy 41010 (Canaveral East) now up to 52.4 knots sustained, gusts of 68 knots.

[HeeBGBz]

I've been here watching for a while. I have nothing much to say as I don't understand what is happening with the storms merging into whatever. I find myself feeling a sense of dread that this is gonna be a bad mofo and I wouldn't want to be in the city to experience it.

[ROCK]

Bermuda under a TS watch and they are well out to sea....that is telling to how big she is and its only going to get worse as she transitions....959mb now so 930ish is not out of the realm...

[WeatherGuesser]

Even central Pennsylvania and Connecticut are worried. As farmers hastened to move equipment to higher ground, politicians canceled public events and residents were cautioned to prepare for days without electricity.

"Be forewarned," Connecticut Gov. Dannel P. Malloy. "Assume that you will be in the midst of flooding conditions, the likes of which you may not have seen at any of the major storms that have occurred over the last 30 years."

http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-sand ... Iv6cKKDrYw

[RL3AO]

Or like this - a little farther north before the west bend. Look for the NHC's 48hr position to be adjusted northward for the next 2 advisories, at least. A 60hr point (and 84hr) would be very helpful with such storms.

[img ]http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/nhc.jpg[/img]

Thinking almost a 90 degree turn?

[ROCK]

Even central Pennsylvania and Connecticut are worried. As farmers hastened to move equipment to higher ground, politicians canceled public events and residents were cautioned to prepare for days without electricity.

"Be forewarned," Connecticut Gov. Dannel P. Malloy. "Assume that you will be in the midst of flooding conditions, the likes of which you may not have seen at any of the major storms that have occurred over the last 30 years."

http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-sand ... Iv6cKKDrYw

uh 30 years. Not sure Conn or Penn have been through something like this, ever.....

I just wished they would have sounded the alarm louder a few days ago. Now you are going to have a run on stores today and tomorrow.

be safe Stephanie!

[wxman57]

This part of the discussion is interesting:

NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SUNDAY.

So no TS or hurricane warnings for the northeast U.S. I agree it won't be tropical, but people don't understand that a gale warning can mean very strong winds. I have some clients that keep asking "is it going to be a hurricane? We only take actions for hurricanes!". I say, no, it isn't going to be a hurricane, but it will have hurricane-force winds covering a larger area than some hurricanes.

[MaryEllen71]

I just found out via FB that my cousin flew to NYC last night. It's going to be a nightmare for her to get home.

[wxman57]

Or like this - a little farther north before the west bend. Look for the NHC's 48hr position to be adjusted northward for the next 2 advisories, at least. A 60hr point (and 84hr) would be very helpful with such storms.

[img ]http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/nhc.jpg[/img]

Thinking almost a 90 degree turn?

Not quite, I could have been a little more west with that position. But a fairly sharp westerly turn.

[ROCK]

This part of the discussion is interesting:

NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SUNDAY.

So no TS or hurricane warnings for the northeast U.S. I agree it won't be tropical, but people don't understand that a gale warning can mean very strong winds. I have some clients that keep asking "is it going to be a hurricane? We only take actions for hurricanes!". I say, no, it isn't going to be a hurricane, but it will have hurricane-force winds covering a larger area than some hurricanes.

but the NHC still has it as a hurricane on their track....are they just going to pass it off once it passes the Carolinas? that doesnt make sense...

[RL3AO]

This part of the discussion is interesting:

So no TS or hurricane warnings for the northeast U.S. I agree it won't be tropical, but people don't understand that a gale warning can mean very strong winds. I have some clients that keep asking "is it going to be a hurricane? We only take actions for hurricanes!". I say, no, it isn't going to be a hurricane, but it will have hurricane-force winds covering a larger area than some hurricanes.

FFS. I don't have a response to something like that where I will stay out of trouble.

[wxman57]

I just found out via FB that my cousin flew to NYC last night. It's going to be a nightmare for her to get home.

Airports in NY may begin closing tomorrow evening. If she doesn't get out by then, she may be there for quite a few days.

[Ken711]

I think DC could receive a direct hit if the track keeps moving South.

[mred53]

Looks like it's going right up Delaware Bay.

Be careful interpolating between the NHC's 48 and 72 hour positions. Unfortunately, they do not include 12hr positions. The 48 and 72 hr points are connected with a straight line, making it appear as though their track is into Delaware Bay. Sandy will not be moving NW at landfall but probably almost due west. This means the NHC track would be into southern NJ if they had a 60hr point placed well to the north (and a bit east) of their 48 hr point.

I was just advising where it appeared to make landfall in that animated gif, which has a frame every hour.