ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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lebron23
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#2241 Postby lebron23 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:04 am

Would love to see what NHC does with their path at 4am....Euro HWRF only texas huggers now..
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models

#2242 Postby cpdaman » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:06 am

euro out to 60 looks like UKIE ....stalled?

possible SE LA brush next 12 hr frame (hr 72)
Last edited by cpdaman on Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:10 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#2243 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:09 am

Kingarabian wrote:0zEuro is so far identical as 12z


It has slowed her westward progression by a good 12 hrs, and not as far south.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models

#2244 Postby Jevo » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:11 am

0z Euro +72

Image
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#2245 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:18 am

NOLA landfall

Image

This changes everything. Only one model remains in Texas (the HWRF), while all the others have made big shifts to the east.
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#2246 Postby Jevo » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:20 am

0z Euro +96
Image
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#2247 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:21 am

So for the 0z summary, major shifts to the East by most major models and the GFS remaining persistent with it's solution. Interesting to see how the NHC responds.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2248 Postby Jevo » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:21 am

Not sure if you guys are following the Euro coming out.. but... Big change from 12z.. check model thread
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models

#2249 Postby lebron23 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:22 am

So now with only 1 model left in texas....
What happens..........
Never seen this happen before..
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#2250 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:22 am

I never bought the track towards TX, the central US ridge has been forecasted to retrograde west over the next couple of days for Debby to come under its tenticles.
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#2251 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:22 am

Jevo wrote:0z Euro +96
Image



Wow! Well that's new. Yikes, I can't imagine what the forecasters at the NHC must be going through right now with all these shifts to the East with the models.
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#2252 Postby Jevo » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:23 am

0z Euro +120 (Inland after NOLA landfall)

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#2253 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:23 am

What a turn of events tonight regarding the models.....Sunday we will know if Texas is still in the cards as Debby should slowly drift to the west per the NHC.
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#2254 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:23 am

A summary of the models this past run:

GFS: Still in Florida
GFDL: Swung East to Florida Big Bend
CMC: Swung East to Florida Panhandle
UKMET: East from Texas to Louisiana
King EURO: East from Texas to Louisiana
HWRF: Stayed in Texas.

Things have changed big time with this model run.
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#2255 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:23 am

Ouch! Those Levees will be tested if that verifies. Days and Days of torrential downpours and surge pilling up water into Lake Pontchartrain. Not to mention battering sustained winds.
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Re:

#2256 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:23 am

Kingarabian wrote:So for the 0z summary, major shifts to the East by most major models and the GFS remaining persistent with it's solution. Interesting to see how the NHC responds.


They never should had thrown out the TVCN/TVCA models, they never fail.
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#2257 Postby DABHou » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:24 am

Is it too early for Houston/Galveston to breathe a sigh of relief?
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models

#2258 Postby tailgater » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:25 am

probably wont change much till they see another run come out.
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#2259 Postby lebron23 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:25 am

Good news is we will know today ..if Debby turns west
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#2260 Postby AJC3 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:26 am

Gang... please keep the model discussion in the model thread. Thanks.
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