ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Jevo]

18z GFS +90

[Aric Dunn]

actaully it looks like the 18z gfs. lol ill wait for the 00z.

[Portastorm]

If this goes any further West then it is a LA landfall. Due N then it can sneak into MS. I would say this is very very interesting but since it is the 18z I will say it is only very interesting with just one very.

I wouldn't be so dismissive of the 18z GFS ... I guess you didn't see my post yesterday afternoon ... the one about how the 18z is only a hair less reliable than the 0z GFS.

[PTPatrick]

This run doesn't bode well for Jackson county Mississippi....that easily 18 hours of onshore flow. Still over pearl river at 96 hours.

[deltadog03]

Just sitting there at hr90....I am not sure why though, the trof is def. there and should be able to tug it inland and NE....Interesting run again run looks slower as well.

[Pearl River]

It's taking it right over NOLA this run. That doesn't bode well, especially coming from the the southeast. All that water being pushed into Lake Pontchartrain.

[SunnyThoughts]

The way it looks, it may be 8 hours before landfall before we can narrow down where this system is going to end up. Scary situation if the storm is indeed strengthening at the time.

[TwisterFanatic]

As big west shift is not a good thing as time is counting down until landfall somewhere in the gulf.

[Meteorcane]

I would ignore the intensity in this run I don't see anyway it could get that strong (especially considering the GFS' inability to accurately resolve intensity).

Just my opinion, use the NHC/NWS for all weather-related decisions.

[BigB0882]

If this goes any further West then it is a LA landfall. Due N then it can sneak into MS. I would say this is very very interesting but since it is the 18z I will say it is only very interesting with just one very.

I wouldn't be so dismissive of the 18z GFS ... I guess you didn't see my post yesterday afternoon ... the one about how the 18z is only a hair less reliable than the 0z GFS.

Thanks for the reminder. I did see that. I was making more of a joke than anything.

I can't believe it is still going West. Where is the sharp N and then NE turn the NHC is still calling for at the end of its run? What is pushing it continually WNW or so this time? Much stronger ridging?

[Jevo]

18z GFS +102 (12 hours later, not much movement)

[Janie2006]

That is a 594 sitting over Colorado, yes?

Correct. That is going to keep Isaac from going much further west (IMHO, and a few others - wink, wink).

Always looking upstairs!

Really, though, some are consumed with the MSLP maps and disregard the analysis from higher up in the atmosphere. Problem is, those events at, say, 500 MB (etcetera) often dictate a lot of things that happen at the surface.

First time we've seen MS Coast, SE Louisiana in play for a landfall from the GFS, IIRC.

[PTPatrick]

Maybe just the 18z but it's still 2 runs in a row from an otherwise consistent gfs...like I say...wanna see if gfs and euro ge on te same page at 0z

[BigB0882]

I would ignore the intensity in this run I don't see anyway it could get that strong (especially considering the GFS' inability to accurately resolve intensity).

Just my opinion, use the NHC/NWS for all weather-related decisions.

Could you explain why you don't think it would get that strong? It seems quite a few models show it getting pretty strong now.

[Jag95]

I'd be just as nervous in New Orleans as I would be in PC or here in Mobile. No telling where he goes between those points. The models seem to be doing a good job, but there's a huge difference in what 50 miles can get you. Just hope I'm on the "good" side or no side at this point.

[TwisterFanatic]

I would ignore the intensity in this run I don't see anyway it could get that strong (especially considering the GFS' inability to accurately resolve intensity).

Just my opinion, use the NHC/NWS for all weather-related decisions.

It's not like it bombs it out into a 950mb storm. It's in the 980mb area.

[Wx_Warrior]

Hard to discredit some pro mets about Colorado. The few I personally know, anyway.

Intensity there for 18z gfs, **guessing** the track is a hair far west.

[BigB0882]

I would ignore the intensity in this run I don't see anyway it could get that strong (especially considering the GFS' inability to accurately resolve intensity).

Just my opinion, use the NHC/NWS for all weather-related decisions.

It's not like it bombs it out into a 950mb storm. It's in the 980mb area.

I am not certain but I think 980 for the GFS is pretty strong. It doesn't typically depict them getting THAT strong so you kind of have to take the number and realize it is relative to what the GFS normally shows. Am I explaining this well? lol

[rockyman]

18z GFS is about 6 hours faster to landfall....instead of Tuesday night, could be Tuesday afternoon

[SunnyThoughts]

I'd be just as nervous in New Orleans as I would be in PC or here in Mobile. No telling where he goes between those points. The models seem to be doing a good job, but there's a huge difference in what 50 miles can get you. Just hope I'm on the "good" side or no side at this point.

I agree with you 100% I wanna be on the good side or no side also. All of us along the coast though..somebody isn't gonna get their wish.