ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Jevo
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#4101 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:59 pm

18z GFS +90

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#4102 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:59 pm

actaully it looks like the 18z gfs. lol ill wait for the 00z.
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#4103 Postby Portastorm » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:00 pm

BigB0882 wrote:If this goes any further West then it is a LA landfall. Due N then it can sneak into MS. I would say this is very very interesting but since it is the 18z I will say it is only very interesting with just one very. :lol:


I wouldn't be so dismissive of the 18z GFS ... I guess you didn't see my post yesterday afternoon ... the one about how the 18z is only a hair less reliable than the 0z GFS. :wink:
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#4104 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:01 pm

This run doesn't bode well for Jackson county Mississippi....that easily 18 hours of onshore flow. Still over pearl river at 96 hours.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#4105 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:01 pm

Just sitting there at hr90....I am not sure why though, the trof is def. there and should be able to tug it inland and NE....Interesting run again run looks slower as well.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4106 Postby Pearl River » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:01 pm

It's taking it right over NOLA this run. That doesn't bode well, especially coming from the the southeast. All that water being pushed into Lake Pontchartrain.
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#4107 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:01 pm

The way it looks, it may be 8 hours before landfall before we can narrow down where this system is going to end up. Scary situation if the storm is indeed strengthening at the time.
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#4108 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:02 pm

As big west shift is not a good thing as time is counting down until landfall somewhere in the gulf.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4109 Postby Meteorcane » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:02 pm

I would ignore the intensity in this run I don't see anyway it could get that strong (especially considering the GFS' inability to accurately resolve intensity).

Just my opinion, use the NHC/NWS for all weather-related decisions.
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Re: Re:

#4110 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:02 pm

Portastorm wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:If this goes any further West then it is a LA landfall. Due N then it can sneak into MS. I would say this is very very interesting but since it is the 18z I will say it is only very interesting with just one very. :lol:


I wouldn't be so dismissive of the 18z GFS ... I guess you didn't see my post yesterday afternoon ... the one about how the 18z is only a hair less reliable than the 0z GFS. :wink:


Thanks for the reminder. I did see that. I was making more of a joke than anything. ;)

I can't believe it is still going West. Where is the sharp N and then NE turn the NHC is still calling for at the end of its run? What is pushing it continually WNW or so this time? Much stronger ridging?
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#4111 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:03 pm

18z GFS +102 (12 hours later, not much movement)

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Re: Re:

#4112 Postby Janie2006 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:03 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:
Janie2006 wrote:That is a 594 sitting over Colorado, yes?


Correct. That is going to keep Isaac from going much further west (IMHO, and a few others - wink, wink).


Always looking upstairs! :wink:

Really, though, some are consumed with the MSLP maps and disregard the analysis from higher up in the atmosphere. Problem is, those events at, say, 500 MB (etcetera) often dictate a lot of things that happen at the surface.

First time we've seen MS Coast, SE Louisiana in play for a landfall from the GFS, IIRC.
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#4113 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:03 pm

Maybe just the 18z but it's still 2 runs in a row from an otherwise consistent gfs...like I say...wanna see if gfs and euro ge on te same page at 0z
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4114 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:04 pm

Meteorcane wrote:I would ignore the intensity in this run I don't see anyway it could get that strong (especially considering the GFS' inability to accurately resolve intensity).

Just my opinion, use the NHC/NWS for all weather-related decisions.


Could you explain why you don't think it would get that strong? It seems quite a few models show it getting pretty strong now.
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#4115 Postby Jag95 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:05 pm

I'd be just as nervous in New Orleans as I would be in PC or here in Mobile. No telling where he goes between those points. The models seem to be doing a good job, but there's a huge difference in what 50 miles can get you. Just hope I'm on the "good" side or no side at this point.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4116 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:05 pm

Meteorcane wrote:I would ignore the intensity in this run I don't see anyway it could get that strong (especially considering the GFS' inability to accurately resolve intensity).

Just my opinion, use the NHC/NWS for all weather-related decisions.


It's not like it bombs it out into a 950mb storm. It's in the 980mb area.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4117 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:06 pm

Hard to discredit some pro mets about Colorado. The few I personally know, anyway.

Intensity there for 18z gfs, **guessing** the track is a hair far west.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4118 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:07 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:
Meteorcane wrote:I would ignore the intensity in this run I don't see anyway it could get that strong (especially considering the GFS' inability to accurately resolve intensity).

Just my opinion, use the NHC/NWS for all weather-related decisions.


It's not like it bombs it out into a 950mb storm. It's in the 980mb area.


I am not certain but I think 980 for the GFS is pretty strong. It doesn't typically depict them getting THAT strong so you kind of have to take the number and realize it is relative to what the GFS normally shows. Am I explaining this well? lol
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4119 Postby rockyman » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:07 pm

18z GFS is about 6 hours faster to landfall....instead of Tuesday night, could be Tuesday afternoon
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Re:

#4120 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:07 pm

Jag95 wrote:I'd be just as nervous in New Orleans as I would be in PC or here in Mobile. No telling where he goes between those points. The models seem to be doing a good job, but there's a huge difference in what 50 miles can get you. Just hope I'm on the "good" side or no side at this point.


I agree with you 100% I wanna be on the good side or no side also. All of us along the coast though..somebody isn't gonna get their wish.
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