ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/2323/leslie3.jpg

All classified storms within 50 miles of Leslie's current location. WOW, many very significant impacts on the CONUS from this position.

and some of the islands.

[cycloneye]

http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/2323/leslie3.jpg

All classified storms within 50 miles of Leslie's current location. WOW, many very significant impacts on the CONUS from this position.

and some of the islands.

Also,let's not forget those who live in Bermuda that may be the first place where it may get very close.

[Blown Away]

The cone is slowly shifting west!.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[Jevo]

I think it should be mandatory that the Hebert box be posted for every storm

IMO if Leslie holds it together she will approach the islands closer than previously forecasted, still making the turn before reaching them and making a broader arc possibly causing concern for the NE later next week.

[Riptide]

The cone is slowly shifting west!.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/gr ... p_5W.shtml

A marked decreased in forward speed as well, it's been a long time since there has been such a stall south of Bermuda. The last one perhaps was Hurricane Jeanne in 2004.

[SFLcane]

I concur with wxman57 for the time being there is nothing that suggest leslie will pose a threat to us in florida.

[cpdaman]

Is this thing decoupling or strengthening (I'm on mobile)?

[JamesCaneTracker]

Is this thing decoupling or strengthening (I'm on mobile)?

It's steady state for right now as a result of the Shear...

[otowntiger]

I did say all major hurricanes that landfalled in SFL from the east, except for Andrew, passed through the box. Most storms that pass through the Hebert box never hit the CONUS, but if a major hurricane landfalls in SFL, very likely it will have passed through the box.

That's the correct way to interpret it.

So really a storm could still hit FL if it didn't travel through the 'Hebert Box' and it could very well miss FL if it does Travel through it. In other words the 'Hebert Box' is kinda useless, amirite?

[cpdaman]

Thanks for reply, does anyone know if models shifted closer to islands next couple days bc they (models 0z) have her weaker thru 72 on last nitesruns

[JamesCaneTracker]

Thanks for reply, does anyone know if models shifted closer to islands next couple days bc they (models 0z) have her weaker thru 72 on last nitesruns

Not sure about closer to the Islands but the models are continuing to shift west some.

[msbee]

I have a question.
do you guys agree with these models?



or do you think the Northern islands could be in more of a threat area?
I am concerned that maybe Leslie won't recurve as as NHC says
any comments would be most helpful.
Thanks

[ROCK]

good consensus up until about 132hr....then the ole stall..after that is the issue...

[fci]

I did say all major hurricanes that landfalled in SFL from the east, except for Andrew, passed through the box. Most storms that pass through the Hebert box never hit the CONUS, but if a major hurricane landfalls in SFL, very likely it will have passed through the box.

That's the correct way to interpret it.

So really a storm could still hit FL if it didn't travel through the 'Hebert Box' and it could very well miss FL if it does Travel through it. In other words the 'Hebert Box' is kinda useless, amirite?

The Hebert Box isn't useless, it is just has an interesting correlation to storms that do strike Florida.
People unfamiliar with it think that if a storm is in the Hebert Box it WILL strike Florida.
It certainly is not that, however; storms that strike Florida from the East or Southeast are more inclined to have passed through the Hebert Box. So, when I see a storm in the Hebert Box, it tells me to pay pretty close attention.

Here is a more extensive explanation of The Hebert Box provided by the Hurricane City Site:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[Jimsot]

I have a question.
do you guys agree with these models?

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/i ... _model.gif

or do you think the Northern islands could be in more of a threat area?
I am concerned that maybe Leslie won't recurve as as NHC says
any comments would be most helpful.
Thanks

At 11:00AM NHC has the storm moving WNW at 295 degrees, so I am a bit more comfortable now then I was this morning, also due to shear most of the storm is on the eastside away from us. If all continues as NHC says we should be out of the woods by tomorrow afternoon (I hope!).

*edited by southerngale to remove the IMG tags from quote

[JamesCaneTracker]

I have a question.
do you guys agree with these models?

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/i ... _model.gif

or do you think the Northern islands could be in more of a threat area?
I am concerned that maybe Leslie won't recurve as as NHC says
any comments would be most helpful.
Thanks

At 11:00AM NHC has the storm moving WNW at 295 degrees, so I am a bit more comfortable now then I was this morning, also due to shear most of the storm is on the eastside away from us. If all continues as NHC says we should be out of the woods by tomorrow afternoon (I hope!).

I could be wrong but most of the activity is on the west and south-west portion of the storm not the east side. However there is a big blowup of Convection pretty much over the center so it looks like the Shear is letting up.

EDIT: The 11am discussion confirms what I said:

LESLIE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS
CAUSING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE STORM.

[Jimsot]

That is what NHC said so I stand corrected. On SAT it looked different to me then what the experts indicated. Still think it will clear us no matter what quadrant has the worst weather.

[ozonepete]

Looks to be intensifying rapidly again. Not necessarily RI, but clearly the shear died out again and there's a huge burst of convection right over the center. Nice banding and good outflow developing.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to be intensifying rapidly again. Not necessarily RI, but clearly the shear died out again and there's a huge burst of convection right over the center. Nice banding and good outflow developing.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 311615.jpg

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 311615.jpg

I have to disagree, it looks like the center is about to be exposed shortly

[bermudashorts]

Hi - am new to this site and first time poster on this forum. Has anyone any opinions on how close Leslie will pass to Bermuda and also when the closest point will be. Fully appreciate that at this stage it's early to make accurate predictions.