ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[IreneSurvivor47]

glad we have our first TD of the season, officially anyway....

Does look a bit ragged this evening but a TD nonetheless....I cant wait for the model wars Weather Freak...

Convection disappearing...slightly.

[Stormcenter]

Way,way,way too early to be concerned about TD #5 if you live in the U.S. IMO

Interesting to see the NHC favoring the GFS clearly over the European model in reference to future strengthening.

We shall see.

[Hurricaneman]

This part of the NHC discussion is particularly alarming with the NW movement and weakness in the gulf mentioned. Could be the same weakness returning to the Gulf states that has given us a very wet summer?

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16. GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE
SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKNESS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

In other words the storm will curve out to sea or be an east coast storm? Sorry, didn't understand that.

Not necessarily, it basically opens up the possibility that anywhere in the Gulf could be a landfall point. The only thing that seems to have a consensus is that it heads WNW towards Jamaica, but from there it could go west into the Yucatan or north into the Florida Panhandle or even Tampa, its just wait and see for the next week

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SFLcane]

So what are the chances it makes a run towards Florida in the next 10 days?

With a long wave trough over the eastern conus i'd keep tabs on it.

[ROCK]

Pretty decent north shift in the 18Z package?

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

Models on the North end of that envelope I take with a grain of salt...... CLP5? BAMM? LBAR? Think i'll pass



IMO, the question here is North of Jamaica....or South?

I agree....the CMC has slowly shifted south each run but still above the islands and into the Bahamas. Those other models are garbage....The NOGAPS is still the right outlier and is way right....

[hurricanes1234]

Image of the storm on July 30, compared to earlier today, before becoming a tropical depression this afternoon at 5 PM.

[cycloneye]

Already one NWS office in the GOM discussing about TD Five.

Here is Mobile,Ala

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012


THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE ATTEMPTING TO STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW STRONG THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS HAS BEEN A
PERSISTENT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. DID NOT
DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS AND CONTINUED 30-40 POPS EACH DAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY HAVE NO IMPACT OVER US THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS...BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN BY THE
MIDDLE-END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ULTIMATE DIRECTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF/SE STATE LATE
NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR. 34/JFB

[northjaxpro]

Way,way,way too early to be concerned about TD #5 if you live in the U.S. IMO

Interesting to see the NHC favoring the GFS clearly over the European model in reference to future strengthening.

We shall see.

I agree. We have plenty of time in the U.S. to monitor this system and lots of variables to analyze as usual beyond the next five days. My best wishes to those in the Leeward and Windward Islands with their preparations first and foremost as this is forecast to impact them as early as late Friday evening into early Saturday.

[ROCK]

18Z NOGAPS coming in...you can see it here....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[KatDaddy]

Time to start watching TD 5 soon to be Ernesto closely. We may have a hurricane in the NW Caribbean Sea by Monday according to the HNC forecast path. At least we have many days to watch the developments.

[PTrackerLA]

Of course the initial concern is the islands but as of right now it shouldn't be too significant of an impact given the current forecast. Afterwards, well, it has been a few years since we've had a CV system possibly approach the GOM from this direction. If Ernesto is a hurricane near Jamaica on monday and starting to bend NW all hell is going to break loose around here . Still many days to watch.

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone know why the satellite images keep blacking out so often? Look at any of the available satellite loops for TD 5 and you'll see what I mean.

[tolakram]

Does anyone know why the satellite images keep blacking out so often? Look at any of the available satellite loops for TD 5 and you'll see what I mean.

Some of the channels are worse than others. If you look at the big picture you'll see it's only part of the image that's missing, usually near the edges.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[northjaxpro]

Of course the initial concern is the islands but as of right now it shouldn't be too significant of an impact given the current forecast. Afterwards, well, it has been a few years since we've had a CV system possibly approach the GOM from this direction. If Ernesto is a hurricane near Jamaica on monday and starting to bend NW all hell is going to break loose around here . Still many days to watch.

Sure, if that were the case, I am sure it will be buzzing on the blog and the media. However, I will worry or speculate about that if we get to that point. A lot can happen between now and Monday. Monitor TD 5 for now, and this weekend is when I will really begin the hone in on it if it potentially strengthens into a potent tropical cyclone and enters the Caribbean as forecast.

[ROCK]

Does anyone know why the satellite images keep blacking out so often? Look at any of the available satellite loops for TD 5 and you'll see what I mean.

Just use the RAM site....everyday is a floater day...love this site...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[boca]

Wxman57 seemed to be pretty convinced that the high would be strong enough to keep it mostly west but with that East coast trough hanging around I don't totally buy into that scenario.

[bevgo]

Thanks for the voice of reason. We just don't know where this is going or how bad, or not, it will be. Specualation at this point is only confusing to people looking for information. Watchful waiting is the best course of action unless you have enough knowledge to make an EDUCATED guess. As amusing as some people can be, at a time when we have a developing storm out there I would like to see facts or information from people that know what they are talking about. Right now my prayers and thoughts go to those that are much closer than I am to this

[AHS2011]

Can someone show me what they mean by an East Coast trough?

[RL3AO]

Can someone show me what they mean by an East Coast trough?

Question would be how much northerly turn can the trough over the NE/Canada cause.

NOTE: This is the gfs forecast for 7 days out. TD five seen near the Caymen Islands.

[floridasun78]

18Z NOGAPS coming in...you can see it here....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

it show td 5 going out to fish