ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[northjaxpro]

Remember folks, models can and often do change like a dime. I am just looking for consistency with the model runs, and now with the GFS shifting west again on the 18Z runs, you really have to now seriously consider UKMET and GFDL as they have been consistent all along with the Florida peninsula possibly being seriously impacted by this developing soon to be designated tropical cyclone. Also, have to include the HWRF as well sticking to its guns as well, although it did show a recurve shift with that model earlier today.

Awaiting the new EURO runs shortly. Very interesting for sure.

[floridasun78]

ok my weather man on wfor saying about big swift on Models this afternoon

[tolakram]

180h

[SFLcane]

18z Nogaps landfall SFL..

[blp]

Guess who decided to join the party. Navgem major shift west

[SFLcane]

Splash into the gulf...

[tolakram]

189h, still riding up the coast

[tolakram]

192h

[floridasun78]

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits · 34m

18z GFS is about to make the crowd go wild.

[tolakram]

204h

[tolakram]

216h, goodbye

[floridasun78]

let see if HWRF show what did day ago show hurr land fall in miami

[WPBWeather]

216h, goodbye

Wow. Bad, really bad.

[tolakram]

Personally, I don't believe this run. I would not be surprised if this recurves just off the coast, but really I have no idea. I just doubt the 18z GFS's ability to pick an accurate track, and I think it has the strength wrong as well. Should be an interesting weekend.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[JPmia]

let see if HWRF show what did day ago show hurr land fall in miami

it's rolling out now.

[Evil Jeremy]

Awaiting the new EURO runs shortly. Very interesting for sure.

Shortly lol? I wish. Give it another 7 1/2 hours...

[stormlover2013]

se high pressure supposed to stay pretty strong if it goes west I feel it goes to gom

[SouthFLTropics]

This is just a theory but perhaps the models are a little late on catching up with the fast forward motion that we have seen with 96L. It might be me but in the latest sat loops it appears that it may be slowing down some. If that is the case then perhaps the models will pick up on the slow down and swing back to the east again. I have to agree with everyone that this is the most interesting system I have tracked in years since the forecast isn't so cut and dry. Gotta love the drama with the tropics. All of this and the system isn't even named yet.

SFT

[floridasun78]

i got feeling i need get ready for strong ts or hurr in south fl i getting that feeling going look supply in case hope miami luck not ran out #The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including Storm2k. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.#

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Evil Jeremy, I lost track of the time EURO will be out LOL... Yeah, we have quite awhile before EURO comes out, but I can assure you many of us will be up late watching them come in after seeing GFS 18Z runs.