ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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northjaxpro
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#1081 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:24 pm

Remember folks, models can and often do change like a dime. I am just looking for consistency with the model runs, and now with the GFS shifting west again on the 18Z runs, you really have to now seriously consider UKMET and GFDL as they have been consistent all along with the Florida peninsula possibly being seriously impacted by this developing soon to be designated tropical cyclone. Also, have to include the HWRF as well sticking to its guns as well, although it did show a recurve shift with that model earlier today.

Awaiting the new EURO runs shortly. Very interesting for sure.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#1082 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:24 pm

ok my weather man on wfor saying about big swift on Models this afternoon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1083 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:25 pm

180h

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1084 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:25 pm

18z Nogaps landfall SFL..

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1085 Postby blp » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:27 pm

Guess who decided to join the party. Navgem major shift west

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1086 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:28 pm

Splash into the gulf... :eek:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1087 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:28 pm

189h, still riding up the coast

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1088 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:29 pm

192h

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1089 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:30 pm

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits · 34m

18z GFS is about to make the crowd go wild.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1090 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:30 pm

204h

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1091 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:31 pm

216h, goodbye

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1092 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:32 pm

let see if HWRF show what did day ago show hurr land fall in miami
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1093 Postby WPBWeather » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:33 pm

tolakram wrote:216h, goodbye

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Wow. Bad, really bad.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1094 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:33 pm

Personally, I don't believe this run. I would not be surprised if this recurves just off the coast, but really I have no idea. I just doubt the 18z GFS's ability to pick an accurate track, and I think it has the strength wrong as well. Should be an interesting weekend.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1095 Postby JPmia » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:33 pm

floridasun78 wrote:let see if HWRF show what did day ago show hurr land fall in miami


it's rolling out now.
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Re:

#1096 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:34 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Awaiting the new EURO runs shortly. Very interesting for sure.


Shortly lol? I wish. Give it another 7 1/2 hours...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1097 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:36 pm

se high pressure supposed to stay pretty strong if it goes west I feel it goes to gom
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1098 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:36 pm

This is just a theory but perhaps the models are a little late on catching up with the fast forward motion that we have seen with 96L. It might be me but in the latest sat loops it appears that it may be slowing down some. If that is the case then perhaps the models will pick up on the slow down and swing back to the east again. I have to agree with everyone that this is the most interesting system I have tracked in years since the forecast isn't so cut and dry. Gotta love the drama with the tropics. All of this and the system isn't even named yet.

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#1099 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:42 pm

i got feeling i need get ready for strong ts or hurr in south fl i getting that feeling going look supply in case hope miami luck not ran out #The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including Storm2k. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.#
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#1100 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:45 pm

Yeah Evil Jeremy, I lost track of the time EURO will be out LOL... Yeah, we have quite awhile before EURO comes out, but I can assure you many of us will be up late watching them come in after seeing GFS 18Z runs.
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