ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

It looks like the intensity down the road will depend if it spends time in the spine of Florida or it stays in the warm gulfstream waters.

I am putting all bets on the Euro, it has been very consistent about its track staying offshore of FL.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity remains minimal in association with
a low pressure area located about 140 miles east-northeast of
Melbourne, Florida. However, surface pressures are falling, and
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development during the next few days. A tropical depression is
likely to form by mid-week while the system moves slowly
southwestward and thens turns northward and northeastward near the
southeastern United States coast. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

Here is a detailed discussion from the Wilmington NC NWS:


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT TROPICAL SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BIT QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
TO WHAT EXTENT AND WHEN. FIRST OFF MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
CONSENSUS NOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY FASTER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN BEFORE. BEFORE
PUTTING TOO MUCH STOCK IN THESE SOLUTIONS THOUGH A FEW THINGS TO
BEAR IN MIND. 1...THE SYSTEM STILL HAS TO TURN ALMOST COMPLETELY
AROUND FROM ITS CURRENT SOUTHWARD MOTION BEFORE IT STARTS AFFECTING
THE CAROLINAS. SUCH TRACK REVERSALS OFTEN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY. 2...THE SYSTEM IS BEREFT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ONCE
CONVECTION BECOMES INITIALLY ESTABLISHED OVER A GIVEN SEMICIRCLE THE
CENTER WILL LIKELY WOBBLE IN THAT DIRECTION...WITH THE TRACK CHANGE
OF THE INITIAL WOBBLE GROWING IN TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD UP OR ALONG THE COAST. RELATED TO THESE TWO
MATTERS...THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A PHYSICALLY SMALL AND COMPACT
STORM. THIS WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT WHERE ITS EFFECTS ARE FELT
GEOGRAPHICALLY WITH SUCH A SMALL ANGLE OF INCIDENCE TO THE COASTLINE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF ITS TRACK. HISTORICALLY...SUCH TRACKS HAVE ALSO
FEATURED STORMS LOCALLY WHERE CONTINENTAL AIR GETS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE LIMITING WINDS AND RAIN ANYWHERE WEST OF ITS
CENTER (CHARLEY, 2004, E.G.). FOR NOW MAIN CHANGES WERE TO SHOW MORE
PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR POSSIBLE QUICKER TIMING. THIS IS A WEEK OF HIGH TOURIST VOLUME
AND COPIOUS FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...BUT UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS TURN
AND STARTS DEVELOPING THERE ARE SIMPLY TOO MANY VARIABLES TO
INTRODUCE MUCH SPECIFICITY. WHAT DOES SEEM MORE FOR SURE IS SOME
LATE WEEK ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

[artist]

close enough it could cause lots of rain, though.

It looks like the intensity down the road will depend if it spends time in the spine of Florida or it stays in the warm gulfstream waters.

I am putting all bets on the Euro, it has been very consistent about its track staying offshore of FL.

[Blown Away]

Nice to see a tight LLC... IMO, 91L has the foundation to take off once it builds some convection...

[robbielyn]

alyono is right, its a broad load with an llc. its surely not tightly wound. u can disagree with him but at least consider that as a met he might know what he is talking about.
Robbielyn

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2014063012, , BEST, 0, 286N, 785W, 25, 1011, LO

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[adam0983]

I think that Invest 91L will have to survive the next 12 hours to turn into a Tropical Depression. Does anyone know how much Shear and dry air is expected during the next 3 days? Just an opinion not a forecast.

[SeGaBob]

I'm guessing NHC will cancel the missions for today being as it's mostly a naked swirl... I could be wrong though.

[tolakram]

Euro still shows development delayed until it starts drifting north again, so I also suspect recon may be cancelled.

I posted this in the models thread and I'll post it here as well. There is a great page for tracking all the major model forecasts in one place.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[NDG]

Latest NHC best track position is exactly where the LLC is, if there would had been a broad they would had been plotting it and not the LLC.

[Frank2]

Good morning everyone - I'm still alive and typing : )

P.S. The LLC is very evident and moving SSW, but as others said it is absent of convection and NHC forecaster Gil Clark once told me that southward moving systems in this hemisphere usually do not develop, so we'll see what happens...

Also, LLC's that small often as we've seen do dissipate - they are more likely eddies than anything, though the NHC has said that pressures are falling, but aside from the small LLC the area doesn't seem as organized as it did 24 hours ago, again perhaps due to northerly shear and southward motion - we'll see...

Frank

[gatorcane]

Latest saved visible loop. You can see the northerly shear still continues to be a problem or this system especially the right half as you can see the convection builds and then gets blown off to the south preventing it from wrapping around the center. Overall circulation is very vigorous though and is sitting right over the very warm Gulf Stream current.



On the other hand, look at this pressure drop at a nearby buoy. My feeling on this system is that as soon as conditions improve, it is going to take off.

[vacanechaser]

alyono is right, its a broad load with an llc. its surely not tightly wound. u can disagree with him but at least consider that as a met he might know what he is talking about.
Robbielyn

Nothing "broad" about this low this morning.. It is nicely compact and looking like a depression with the exception of no convection. The center is much better defined today. I would not be surprised if recon does go with the look of it today. I could also see them calling it off too. Reminds me very much like Alex...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://Www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane intercept research team

[NDG]

Some light showers coming onshore in Daytona rotating around 91L as I drive up to Jacksonville this morning.

[stormcruisin]

Looks sheared and barely pulsing.

[cycloneye]

It would be interesting to see some live web cams from the east coast of Florida to see how things are doing.If anyone has cams to post go ahead.

[nativefloridian]

Here's a link that gives you a variety of webcams to choose from. http://floridabeachlive.com/

You might want to try this one also: http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/may ... rida_5318/

[tolakram]

If you speed this live loop up it appears there is only a single well defined circulation now. IMO of course.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon