ATL: GONZALO - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#41 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:43 pm

turned to the north at 168 hours but just crawling between 168 and 192 hours. 192 hour map below and really deepening...

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9627
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#42 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:46 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#43 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:49 pm

216 hours turn to the ENE but just crawling...

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9627
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#44 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:51 pm

This run is further east then 00z run
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9874
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#45 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:51 pm

:uarrow: Getting stronger at same time...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#46 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:56 pm

240 hours moves more ENE...looks like it would get ejected.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

#47 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:59 pm

Given the fairly small size, is pretty likely this would be a Cat 3 by the end of the run?
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9627
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re:

#48 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:59 pm

gatorcane wrote:240 hours moves more ENE...looks like it would get ejected. The trough does it's job.


Its oct chris hits from the east are extremely rare. I would be shocked if comes near florida. If anything its been fun watching the European actually develope something in this dreadful season.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139596
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Re:

#49 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:01 pm

SFLcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:240 hours moves more ENE...looks like it would get ejected. The trough does it's job.


Its oct chris hits from the east are extremely rare. I would be shocked if comes near florida. If anything its been fun watching the European actually develope something in this dreadful season.


And not only develops but in a strong way.That is a big deal.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9627
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#50 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:01 pm

18z models have come a bit westward leading with UKMET

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

#51 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:06 pm

Given the fairly small size, is pretty likely this would be a Cat 3 by the end of the run?
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#52 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:06 pm

It just seems like a major hurricane suddenly come out from nowhere :lol:

Image
Last edited by supercane4867 on Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2807
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact blp

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#53 Postby blp » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:06 pm

I don't think it is done deal yet. Deltadog eluded to the upstream pattern being very complicated due to the WPAC typhoons. It stalls out from 144 to 216 which tells me there is a lot of uncertainty left.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#54 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:08 pm

blp wrote:I don't think it is done deal yet. Deltadog eluded to the upstream pattern being very complicated due to the WPAC typhoons. It stalls out from 144 to 216 which tells me there is a lot of uncertainty left.


Yeah would agree. The ECMWF and GFS show very slow movement downstream once the ridge erodes over the Western Atlantic. It's not like they are ejecting it quickly. Lots of model watching ahead!

I recall The GFS and ECMWF were recurving IKE (2008) in their long-range forecasts east of Florida and the Bahamas and many of us thought it would not be an issue but the models shifted WAY west on that and IKE ended up hitting Cuba.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2807
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact blp

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#55 Postby blp » Fri Oct 10, 2014 3:42 pm

The Euro is walking a tight rope with regards to avoiding Hispaniola. That could be a monkey wrench in the forecast. If it is disrupted that could allow a shallower system to move further west. It has trended stronger with each run. I would like to see what happens with a weaker run.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33398
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#56 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:26 pm

I still don't see how it recurves with that giant ridge building behind Fay and that trough digging way down...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5459
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#57 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:27 pm

Cristobal Deja Vu
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
TARHEELPROGRAMMER

#58 Postby TARHEELPROGRAMMER » Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:28 pm

Hasn't the Euro this year been right like 10 days out and 3 days before? What was it showing for 10 days out?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#59 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:45 pm

18Z GFS running, looks a little stronger out through 66 hours so far.
0 likes   
Top
stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2312
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#60 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:52 pm

Euro has done a pretty good job with showing developing, until it develops we won't know where it will go but Atleast it's showing something developing and has been very consistent
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests