ATL: GONZALO - Models

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gatorcane
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#41 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:43 pm

turned to the north at 168 hours but just crawling between 168 and 192 hours. 192 hour map below and really deepening...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#42 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:46 pm

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#43 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:49 pm

216 hours turn to the ENE but just crawling...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#44 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:51 pm

This run is further east then 00z run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#45 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:51 pm

:uarrow: Getting stronger at same time...
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#46 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:56 pm

240 hours moves more ENE...looks like it would get ejected.
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#47 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:59 pm

Given the fairly small size, is pretty likely this would be a Cat 3 by the end of the run?
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#48 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:59 pm

gatorcane wrote:240 hours moves more ENE...looks like it would get ejected. The trough does it's job.


Its oct chris hits from the east are extremely rare. I would be shocked if comes near florida. If anything its been fun watching the European actually develope something in this dreadful season.
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Re: Re:

#49 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:01 pm

SFLcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:240 hours moves more ENE...looks like it would get ejected. The trough does it's job.


Its oct chris hits from the east are extremely rare. I would be shocked if comes near florida. If anything its been fun watching the European actually develope something in this dreadful season.


And not only develops but in a strong way.That is a big deal.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#50 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:01 pm

18z models have come a bit westward leading with UKMET

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#51 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:06 pm

Given the fairly small size, is pretty likely this would be a Cat 3 by the end of the run?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#52 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:06 pm

It just seems like a major hurricane suddenly come out from nowhere :lol:

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Last edited by supercane4867 on Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#53 Postby blp » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:06 pm

I don't think it is done deal yet. Deltadog eluded to the upstream pattern being very complicated due to the WPAC typhoons. It stalls out from 144 to 216 which tells me there is a lot of uncertainty left.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#54 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:08 pm

blp wrote:I don't think it is done deal yet. Deltadog eluded to the upstream pattern being very complicated due to the WPAC typhoons. It stalls out from 144 to 216 which tells me there is a lot of uncertainty left.


Yeah would agree. The ECMWF and GFS show very slow movement downstream once the ridge erodes over the Western Atlantic. It's not like they are ejecting it quickly. Lots of model watching ahead!

I recall The GFS and ECMWF were recurving IKE (2008) in their long-range forecasts east of Florida and the Bahamas and many of us thought it would not be an issue but the models shifted WAY west on that and IKE ended up hitting Cuba.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#55 Postby blp » Fri Oct 10, 2014 3:42 pm

The Euro is walking a tight rope with regards to avoiding Hispaniola. That could be a monkey wrench in the forecast. If it is disrupted that could allow a shallower system to move further west. It has trended stronger with each run. I would like to see what happens with a weaker run.

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#56 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:26 pm

I still don't see how it recurves with that giant ridge building behind Fay and that trough digging way down...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#57 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:27 pm

Cristobal Deja Vu
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#58 Postby TARHEELPROGRAMMER » Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:28 pm

Hasn't the Euro this year been right like 10 days out and 3 days before? What was it showing for 10 days out?
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#59 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:45 pm

18Z GFS running, looks a little stronger out through 66 hours so far.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#60 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:52 pm

Euro has done a pretty good job with showing developing, until it develops we won't know where it will go but Atleast it's showing something developing and has been very consistent
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