ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Anyone want to give an update on what they think is going on with the system right now?

well the rain has stopped in ne fll..system.is weak and should stay real weak

Rain has passed and a big slot of dry is over us now.
Rain was heavy only briefly.
Apparently only very few areas got over an inch, inland; and might have been enhanced by sea breeze interaction.

pouring again...need the rain, its been dry on the coast...more on the way next few days

[HeeBGBz]

When this enters the gulf, is it likely to merge with the buildup in the BOC? Or will it compete for energy?

[Hammy]

down to 20% in the short term, but up to 40% for five day, so it looks like development over the gulf is becoming more likely.

[floridasun78]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Six, located several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde
Islands.

1. Satellite, radar and surface observations show that the area of
low pressure centered over the northwestern Bahamas is moving
slowly west-southwestward toward southern Florida. The shower
activity associated with the low has not become any better
organized during the past few hours, and strong upper-level winds
as well as the interaction with the Florida peninsula will likely
inhibit development tonight and Friday. Once the low moves westward
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend, conditions
could become a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
Regardless of development, this low will bring locally heavy rains
to portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

So, I was right when I said it was moving southward.

[LaBreeze]

Local met mentioned this evening that the more reliable models have this "system" making its way across the GOM and parking itself in the western GOM. He seems to think that it will enhance our rain chances here in SW LA around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

[MGC]

Yes, it is moving to the south...but mostly to the west. WSW......MGC

[Nimbus]

Quite clear on this loop where the llc is. That shear lets up one inch this thing is a TD. Be careful tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

I've been watching the SPGF1 buoy and the winds shifted from NW to a lull of 6 knots then back to 19 knots from the SW

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

Any low pressure must be over a small area about the size of a water spout.

When that dry air came sinking in this morning that has really helped Florida.
Hopefully 92l won't reform tomorrow morning as has been the pattern.

[NDG]

Just noticed that both the GFS and ECMWF now picture better UL conditions in the central and western GOM by late weekend into early next week, if it survives the next couple of days it may indeed get better organized by then.

[blp]

Quite clear on this loop where the llc is. That shear lets up one inch this thing is a TD. Be careful tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

I've been watching the SPGF1 buoy and the winds shifted from NW to a lull of 6 knots then back to 19 knots from the SW

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

Any low pressure must be over a small area about the size of a water spout.

When that dry air came sinking in this morning that has really helped Florida.
Hopefully 92l won't reform tomorrow morning as has been the pattern.

Yea that is the area with the lowest pressure right now and has been slowly falling all afternoon. The llc looks to be very close to this area.

[fci]

Anyone want to give an update on what they think is going on with the system right now?

Rain has passed and a big slot of dry is over us now.
Rain was heavy only briefly.
Apparently only very few areas got over an inch, inland; and might have been enhanced by sea breeze interaction.

pouring again...need the rain, its been dry on the coast...more on the way next few days

Some training going in now in Palm Beach County but it looks like not much left behind it.
Expect sunny skies by Friday afternoon.
I suspect there have lulls in Ft. Lauderdale like we has in PBC earlier.

[Sambucol]

Local met mentioned this evening that the more reliable models have this "system" making its way across the GOM and parking itself in the western GOM. He seems to think that it will enhance our rain chances here in SW LA around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

How long will be parked? Did the met say it would get it's act together in the GOM?

[MGC]

Band of precip moving into Florida's east coast looks quite tropical. Looks like the dry air has dried up all the precip east of that band though.....MGC

[Sanibel]

Totally naked now (the storm not me). Dead calm over here and humid. Shear expected to ride with 92L for next 48 hours.

[LaBreeze]

Local met mentioned this evening that the more reliable models have this "system" making its way across the GOM and parking itself in the western GOM. He seems to think that it will enhance our rain chances here in SW LA around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

How long will be parked? Did the met say it would get it's act together in the GOM?

He didn't go that far out on the limb - he seemed to say that it would be there for a day or two and then no forecast movement was given after that. I'll see what he says during the 10:00 news.

[baytownwx]

Yes, looks naked right now..

[hurricanehunter69]

I've been studying water vapor loops in the gulf for about two days now, and I'm noticing an evolution of increasingly improving(conducive) conditions. This... IMO, is well...concerning to say the least. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[fci]

Area Flood Advisory for my area as it has been pouring all evening. So much for only about 1 inch!
Have had about 1.5 inches so far for Thursday up until now and it is still coming down.
Still should be over with sun coming out on Friday.

[LaBreeze]

I've been studying water vapor loops in the gulf for about two days now, and I'm noticing an evolution of increasingly improving(conducive) conditions. This... IMO, is well...concerning to say the least. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Concerning? Please, give us your thoughts on this.

[ronjon]

Low center just west of WPB. Still getting northerly shear but may produce some heavy convection over the peninsula today.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=MLB&loop=yes