ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#281 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:19 am

here is some models....:)


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#282 Postby 'CaneFreak » Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:25 am

ROCK wrote:here is some models....:)


These look somewhat in line with my thoughts.
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#283 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:28 am

funny how things evolve...now guidance is inbetween the boc n.gom solutions weve been talking about for days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#284 Postby perk » Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:38 am

'CaneFreak wrote:
ROCK wrote:here is some models....:)


These look somewhat in line with my thoughts.



The models have flipped so much i don't know what to think.
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#285 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:06 pm

IMO of all the forecast models the UKMET has been the more stable and best model with 92L so far. Today's 12zUKMET brings a very weak area of low pressure to South Texas Coast in 72hrs and last nights it brought a weak area of low pressure in Mid Texas Coast.

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#286 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:23 pm

12z GFS still wanting to send a Vort northward from the central Gulf toward Mobile and buries the Low we see now deep into the BOC eventually forming another Low north of it that heads for TX. Scratching my head. :double:
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Re:

#287 Postby N2Storms » Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:28 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:12z GFS still wanting to send a Vort northward from the central Gulf toward Mobile and buries the Low we see now deep into the BOC eventually forming another Low north of it that heads for TX. Scratching my head. :double:



That's what I believe the guy on TWC was alluding to in his most recent update. Seems to think that it is more likely that it gets elongated and eventually splits in to two separate entities. One goes north towards MS/AL and the other stays in the BOC...
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed quotes
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#288 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:51 pm

18z Model suite.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#289 Postby southerngale » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:51 pm

FWIW... 12z Canadian - Central TX coast. TS - perhaps some rain for the parched state.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#290 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:55 pm

Both the NavGem and the Canadian show low consolidation in 36 hours from the last run. Perhaps we shouldn't expect much for at least another 24 hours?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#291 Postby perk » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:57 pm

southerngale wrote:FWIW... 12z Canadian - Central TX coast. TS - perhaps some rain for the parched state.


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southerngale as you well know,we can use some rain. :lol:
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#292 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:57 pm

this is what we need...little ts to help out our drought....hope they are right.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#293 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:01 pm

southerngale wrote:FWIW... 12z Canadian - Central TX coast. TS - perhaps some rain for the parched state.


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hmm..the CMCI above has this over high island...I thought they were one in the same....guess not...:)
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#294 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:02 pm

What was the TS that formed and hit Texas a couple years back? The one that went from full of convection offshore to absolutely nothing in a matter of 4 or 6 hrs?
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Re:

#295 Postby Portastorm » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:08 pm

brunota2003 wrote:What was the TS that formed and hit Texas a couple years back? The one that went from full of convection offshore to absolutely nothing in a matter of 4 or 6 hrs?


Tropical Storm Don in 2011. The saddest excuse for a named system many of us have ever seen.
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#296 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:10 pm

better start moving nw soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#297 Postby southerngale » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:13 pm

Portastorm, that was CRAZY! Texas sucked up TS Don and consumed him whole. :P

ROCK... now I see the CMCI you mentioned.
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Re:

#298 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:13 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:better start moving nw soon.


the more NW in the near term would mean more shear.....its fine where it is for now...:)
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Re: Re:

#299 Postby perk » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:14 pm

Portastorm wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:What was the TS that formed and hit Texas a couple years back? The one that went from full of convection offshore to absolutely nothing in a matter of 4 or 6 hrs?


Tropical Storm Don in 2011. The saddest excuse for a named system many of us have ever seen.



Portastorm what's your take on the 18z models posted by cycloneye.
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Re:

#300 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:14 pm

brunota2003 wrote:What was the TS that formed and hit Texas a couple years back? The one that went from full of convection offshore to absolutely nothing in a matter of 4 or 6 hrs?


This question can't be answered without the posting of the final discussion. :D

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN
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