ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
ROCK wrote:here is some models....
These look somewhat in line with my thoughts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
'CaneFreak wrote:ROCK wrote:here is some models....
These look somewhat in line with my thoughts.
The models have flipped so much i don't know what to think.
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- Rgv20
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IMO of all the forecast models the UKMET has been the more stable and best model with 92L so far. Today's 12zUKMET brings a very weak area of low pressure to South Texas Coast in 72hrs and last nights it brought a weak area of low pressure in Mid Texas Coast.
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Dean4Storms wrote:12z GFS still wanting to send a Vort northward from the central Gulf toward Mobile and buries the Low we see now deep into the BOC eventually forming another Low north of it that heads for TX. Scratching my head.
That's what I believe the guy on TWC was alluding to in his most recent update. Seems to think that it is more likely that it gets elongated and eventually splits in to two separate entities. One goes north towards MS/AL and the other stays in the BOC...
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
18z Model suite.
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- southerngale
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
FWIW... 12z Canadian - Central TX coast. TS - perhaps some rain for the parched state.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Both the NavGem and the Canadian show low consolidation in 36 hours from the last run. Perhaps we shouldn't expect much for at least another 24 hours?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
southerngale wrote:FWIW... 12z Canadian - Central TX coast. TS - perhaps some rain for the parched state.
southerngale as you well know,we can use some rain.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
southerngale wrote:FWIW... 12z Canadian - Central TX coast. TS - perhaps some rain for the parched state.
hmm..the CMCI above has this over high island...I thought they were one in the same....guess not...
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brunota2003 wrote:What was the TS that formed and hit Texas a couple years back? The one that went from full of convection offshore to absolutely nothing in a matter of 4 or 6 hrs?
Tropical Storm Don in 2011. The saddest excuse for a named system many of us have ever seen.
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- southerngale
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Portastorm, that was CRAZY! Texas sucked up TS Don and consumed him whole.
ROCK... now I see the CMCI you mentioned.
ROCK... now I see the CMCI you mentioned.
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Re: Re:
Portastorm wrote:brunota2003 wrote:What was the TS that formed and hit Texas a couple years back? The one that went from full of convection offshore to absolutely nothing in a matter of 4 or 6 hrs?
Tropical Storm Don in 2011. The saddest excuse for a named system many of us have ever seen.
Portastorm what's your take on the 18z models posted by cycloneye.
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brunota2003 wrote:What was the TS that formed and hit Texas a couple years back? The one that went from full of convection offshore to absolutely nothing in a matter of 4 or 6 hrs?
This question can't be answered without the posting of the final discussion.
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
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